NBA DFS Breakdown - 11/20
@Jagibbs_23 November 20
Game Scripts:
Shooutouts: Games with the highest O/U. Teams with (O/U in parenthesis)
Golden State vs Chicago (206.5)
Denver vs Phoenix (206)
Portland vs LAC (TBD)
OKC vs New York (TBD)
Blowout Concerns: Games you may want to avoid due to the large differences in team totals. (Proj. Team Total in parenthesis)
New Orleans (TBD) vs San Antonio (TBD)
Charlotte (103) vs Philadelphia (92.5)
Boston (104.8) vs Brooklyn (96.3)
Golden State (107.8) vs Chicago (98.8)
Pace Up: Teams seeing a big increase in pace due to matchup. It’s worth considering targeting players on this list because they’ll have less possessions than normal. Conversely, it may be worth considering fading teams that are on the opposite end of these matchups, because they’re playing down in pace.
Utah (+2.7)
Memphis (+2.3)
Brooklyn (+2.2)
Denver (+1.8)
New York (+1.8)
Fantasy Friendly Matchups: Teams playing against bottom ten team defenses in fantasy points allowed this year. EX: Offense (Matchup - DVP Rank)
Memphis (Houston - 30)
Charlotte (Philadelphia - 29)
Toronto (LAL - 28)
San Antonio (New Orleans - 27)
Boston (Brooklyn - 25)
Phoenix (Denver - 23)
Golden State (Chicago - 21)
Back to Back Concerns: Teams on the back end of a back to back set
LAC - Traveling from Los Angeles to Portland.
Golden State - Traveling from Los Angeles to Golden State.
*Be sure to monitor the @FF_Underground account throughout the day to keep updated on the developing injury situations. Much changes throughout the day, and I'll keep you updated.
Point Guard:
- Russell Westbrook vs New York (12300) - Westbrook has averaged 64 DK PPG since Durant went down and has topped 67 in every game but one. His price tag is insane and very restrictive, but it only implies 55.7 points for him. I'd be large amounts of money that he tops that in this game. There's nobody on the Knicks roster who has a prayer of keeping up with Westbrook. I mean seriously, they're going to trot out Jose Calderon against Westbrook? The Knicks have played much better defense this season, but Westbrook is going to have a field day against them in this one. I won't be playing him in my cash lineup because I find it very hard to roster a team in which I feel confident in the floor of every player with him in it, but I'll definitely have exposure in tournaments.
- Kyle Lowry @ LAL (8100) - Pencil Lowry into your cash lineups and begin from there. The last time Lowry scored under 36 DK points was two weeks ago. Do you really think the next time will be against the Lakers? Some may have forgotten the Lakers generosity to opposing PGs due to the collection of weak PGs they've faced, but Brandon Knight reminded everyone with a monster triple-double en route to 78 DK points in the Lakers last game. Lowry has averaged 51.5 DK PPG against the Lakers in five games over the past two seasons, and I expect similar production tonight. He's viable in any format tonight, although he will likely be very popular in tournaments.
- Brandon Knight @ Denver (7500) - It's perfect that Knight follows Lowry, because he may be who I pivot to in some tournament lineups to differentiate. I think Lowry will score more, but Knight has more upside, and you're going to need to hit every play right to take down a GPP on a large slate like this. When building lineups, you need to ask yourself, "Can this lineup score 380+ points?" If not, you need to make changes. Here's why I like Knight tonight: 1. He has seen a consistent increase in usage over the past four games, topping 28.5 usage rate in each individual game. Over his first seven games, his usage rate was 24.53. 2. Emmanuel Mudiay - I love the young PG, but a matchup against him automatically increases Knight's upside. Here are Mudiay's last two games: 73.5 DK points allowed to Tony Parker and Patty Mills. 55 combined points to Jrue Holiday and Ish Smith. 3. There are tons of PGs in play tonight. With Westbrook, Curry, Lillard, Lowry, Reggie Jackson, Isaiah Thomas, Ricky Rubio, and potentially Chris Paul all on the slate, Knight could see ownership in the 5-10% range. I'm not going near him in cash, but I love Knight in tourneys tonight.
- Kemba Walker vs Philadelphia (6700) - Kemba has been very productive for Charlotte recently, averaging 40.13 over his past four games. His price still hasn't come to reflect his production, and he draws a matchup against the Sixers, who have the second-worst defense in the NBA and are ranked 24th in DVP vs PGs. Walker needs 33.3 to reach value, and he should have no trouble doing so unless this game becomes a blowout. Walker is a very intriguing mid-range priced tournament option tonight.
- Jarrett Jack @ Boston (6200) - I've been telling everyone I can that Jack is going to have a great statistical season, and he continues to put up huge fantasy numbers and get no respect along the way. I get that the Nets suck. I get that he's not a flashy player to watch. But points are points guys, and he's getting them in bunches. He's scored 43 or more in three of his last four games and is averaging 42.38 during that stretch. He has five games with 40+ on the year, and will continue to pile up minutes and fantasy points for this talent-less Nets back court. He needs 31.3 to reach value, and I don't see him struggling to do so in this up-tempo matchup against Boston. Jack is in play in any format at this price.
- Mike Conley vs Houston (6200) - Conley has been inconsistent this season, but has been much better as of late, averaging 33.13 over his past six. Tonight he draws a premier matchup against Houston, who has allowed the most fantasy points this season and ranks 25th in PG DVP. This game also will be up in pace for the Grizzlies, and Vegas has Memphis projected to score 6.7 more than their season average. Expect Conley to be involved in a lot of that, whether it's through his scoring or dime-dropping (8.5 APG over his past four). Conley is a nice mid-priced play in tournaments that may go overlooked with so many PGs on the slate.
Shooting Guard:
- Eric Bledsoe @ Denver (8400) - Guess who is giving up the most fantasy points to opposing guards this season? The Denver Nuggets. I love Bledsoe for all the reasons listed with Knight. He is more expensive, but he also possesses a much higher floor (43+ in six of last nine, 35+ in 8/9). Last time Phoenix faced the Nuggets, Bledsoe dropped 48.75 on them in only 30 minutes. Hopefully this one stays closer since it is being played in Denver, because Knight and Bledsoe could easily combine for 100+ DK points.
- Jimmy Butler @ Golden State (7900) - My last take on Butler: "Butler’s usage goes through the roof with Rose out, as Chicago’s primary backups are Kirk Hinrich and E'twaun Moore with Brooks recently falling out of the rotation. He contributes in all facets of the game, and with Rose out he should see an increase in points and assists. If you can fit him in your cash game lineups, there aren’t many picks safer than Jimmy Minutes tonight." Since then, he played 43 minutes and posted his best total in November with 45.5 DK points, and the Bulls have also lost Aaron Brooks to injury, meaning they now have three healthy guards to play in this up-tempo game against the Warriors. Jimmy steps up his game in the spotlight, and the Bulls are the last chance the NBA has of keeping Golden State from starting the season with the best record, because after this they take on the Nuggets and Lakers. Butler is going to have a huge game in this one, and you are going to want some exposure.
- Will Barton vs Phoenix (5300) - Barton has really stepped up his game recently, most notably in his last game against the Suns, in which he dropped 48.5 DK points. He's averaging 37.13 over his last four games, and is in line to put up similar numbers in this one. This game will be played at a very fast pace, and Barton thrives in up-tempo games. His best performances have come against teams who play at a pace of above 100, (42 against GS, 38.75 against HOU, 48.5 against PHO, 35.75 against NO) and Phoenix is in the top five in the NBA in pace. Barton has huge upside in this one, and is going to find his way into almost all of my tournament lineups at this price tag.
- Rodney Hood @ Dallas (4900) - Hood has shown no ill effects following his foot injury, averaging 36 MPG and 29.25 DK PPG in his past two games. He's scored 19 or more in nine of his past ten games, and has flashed 30+ potential from time to time. The matchup against Wesley Matthews isn't ideal, but Hood provides you with a cheap cash game alternative if you can't afford Butler. He has a palatable floor due to pure volume, and unless more value options emerge, he is the top cash-playable value at SG.
Small Forward:
- Carmelo Anthony @ OKC (8500) - I never roster Melo in DFS because I think he is generally overpriced for what he contributes, but he is in a good spot here. Without Durant, OKC really has nobody that can defend Melo. They will likely try to throw Andre Roberson at him, but he hasn't been nearly as effective defensively from a statistical standpoint as his reputation implies, and he isn't big enough to disrupt Melo's shot or keep him off the glass (Double digit boards in back to back games). In an up-tempo, high scoring game against the Thunder, expect Melo to lead the charge for New York. He needs 40.5 to reach value, a number he has reached in five straight games. If you can afford to spend up at SF, Carmelo Anthony is your man.
- Nicolas Batum vs Philadelphia (7000) - Batum's past six games in terms of DK PPG: 32.5, 33.75, 46.5, 49.75, 11.5, 42.75. Guess which night I rostered him? I swear every time I finally get on board with Batum he does that to me, but I am trying to not give in to recency bias, because he is in a good spot once again tonight. He's seeing tons of minutes (37.2 MPG over past five) due to Charlotte's banged up wing rotation, and has responded by averaging 36.85 DK PPG over that span. Batum has seen an increase in usage for Charlotte (21.9) as opposed to his time in Portland, (14.6 last season) and he's turned the extra opportunities into fantasy goodness. Batum is in play in any format tonight, although I find it easier to trust Aminu in cash.
- Al-Farouq Aminu vs LAC (6200) - Aminu was one of my favorite sleepers this preseason, and he's exceeded my expectations thus far, averaging 28.2 DK PPG. His price has risen, but his floor is worth it in cash games, as he's scored below 20 only once this season. He's coming off of a monster double-double against Houston in which he finished with 39.75 DK points, and is looking to follow it up with another big game against the Clippers tonight. Los Angeles is coming off of a late night battle against the Warriors, and now has to travel to Portland to take on the Blazers and the high-energy Al-Farouq Aminu. The Clippers have been accused of being soft for quite some time, and I think Aminu will have his way on the boards against lazy defenders like Paul Pierce and Josh Smith. I wouldn't play him in tournaments because he doesn't see the usage to put up a 50+ game, which is what you need from someone at this price point to win a GPP. He is an excellent option in cash games in a weak SF pool though.
- Trevor Ariza @ Memphis (5600) - Can't quite fit Aminu in your cash lineup? No problem, because Ariza is $600 less and offers a similar floor. Ariza sees a huge minute load, (35.1 MPG) and has scored 20+ in nine straight games. While James Harden and Dwight Howard draw the defensive attention of Tony Allen and Marc Gasol, Ariza is left with a far less intimidating matchup against Jeff Green. It's also worth noting that Memphis is allowing teams to shoot 39.7% from three against them, worst in the NBA. Ariza chucks seven threes per game and has hit eight in his past two games. Ariza is primarily a cash option, but if you find yourself with 5.6k and your F spot open in a GPP lineup, Ariza will likely be overlooked and has the ability to put up 40+ if he gets hot.
Power Forward:
- Blake Griffin @ Portland (9600) - Griffin has been an absolute beast this year, and he has topped 35 in every game outside of the game he was ejected. He's seen an increase in usage this season with CP3 banged up, and the Clippers may be without Paul in this one on the back end of a back to back. Griffin also draws a nice individual matchup against the Blazers who struggle to contain opposing bigs and have nobody on their roster to comfortable match up with Griffin. Aminu is the most likely candidate, although he is 45 pounds lighter than Griffin. Bigs such as Noah Vonleh and Ed Davis have no chance of keeping up with Griffin on the peremiter and in transition. He is an absolute matchup nightmare, and should continue to put up big numbers in this one. He's in play in cash games and GPPs, especially if Paul is out.
- Draymond Green vs Chicago (7400) - Green has been doing a little of everything for Golden State, and it has led to an average of 49.31 over his past four games. This game has the highest O/U on the slate and the Warriors have the highest team total. Chicago has allowed the 10th most fantasy points to opposing teams this year, and I think the Bulls big, physical front court defenders struggle to keep up with Dray. I think Mirotic could do an alright job on him, but Hoiberg has been hesitant to give him big minutes recently. I expect Butler to erase Klay Thompson (Klay averages 26.5 DK PPG against Butler in his career), and the only reason Captain Kirk is in the league anymore is because he is a pesky defender. No one can defend Steph, but if there's someone who is savvy enough to dodge picks and chase him around, it's Hinrich. As a result, I think the offense filters through Green a little more than normal. This pick is based too much on feeling and speculation for me to roster him in cash, but I think Green shows up big in this one and possibly puts together his second triple-double of the season.
- Thaddeus Young @ Boston (6400) - Young has been on a ridiculous stretch recently, averaging 43.58 over his last three and topping 24 in each of his past 10 games. His FG% is unsustainable, but I don't think this is the game in which he slows down. Boston plays at a blistering pace of 101.9, which boosts most of Brooklyn's players, but none more than Young. If you want a comp, look no further than the 50 burger Thad dropped on Golden State last week. Golden State plays at an almost identical pace to Boston, 102.7, and their defensive efficiency is almost identical as well, with Golden State's being slightly better. Playing at a fast pace inevitably leads to turnovers as well, and Boston is no exception, with the eleventh most TOs per game. Young leads the Nets in SPG and has nine over his past three games, which has really helped boost his string of dominant fantasy performances. At this price, Young is worth a look in any format tonight, and makes for a nice pivot off Anderson if Anthony Davis plays.
- Ryan Anderson vs San Antonio (6300) - If Davis and Asik sit again, Anderson is a must-play in cash. The Pelicans simply have no other options inside, as evidenced by the 44 minutes, 25 shot attempts, and ten launched threes in the last game for Anderson, which resulted in 47.75 DK points. He only needs 31.7 to reach value at price, which he should have no problem accomplishing if he sees close to that volume again. The matchup isn't ideal, and there are blowout concerns, (aren't there always with the Pelicans?) but if Anderson is one of three healthy posts for New Orleans it really doesn't matter at this price. Monitor the news, but he could end up being in play in both cash and tournaments.
- Kristaps Porzingis @ OKC (6100) - It's amazing what this kid can do when given the opportunity. He's averaging well over a point per minute and has averaged 39.75 DK PPG in games he's seen 30+ minutes. Maybe it's time to worry less about fighting Matt Barnes and more on getting the future of your franchise some minutest D-Fish! I think that Porzingis would see 30+ in this one to match up with Ibaka, especially considering he's coming off of a career game (46.75 DK points). I simply don't trust Fisher's rotation enough to play Porzingis in cash though, especially with all the appealing options at PF. The matchup is very juicy for Porzingis though, as the Thunder are below the league average in points allowed per game, play up in pace, and rank 20th in DVP vs PFs. Target Porzingis liberally in GPPs.
Center:
- Andre Drummond @ Minnesota (9900) - In what was perceived as a tough matchup against Cleveland and their top five rebounding rate, the Big Penguin continued to dominate, posting 25 points and 18 boards on his way to 55.5 DK points. He has another perceived tough matchup in this one against shot blocking machine Karl Anthony-Towns, but I expect Drummond to get the better of the youngster in this one. With most gravitating to the likes of Westbrook, Curry, and Harden after their recent performances, look for Drummond to go underowned and be a terrific GPP (only) option.
- Dwight Howard @ Memphis (7600) - Following a monster four game stretch in which he averaged 46.31 DK PPG and over 12 FGA per game, Dwight has seen his usage shrink in his past three games. He hasn't attempted more than six shots in any of those games, but he only needed five FGA in his last game to put up a 40.25 point performance. The majority of Howard's value has come from his rebounding (13.4 RPG) and Memphis currently boasts the seventh worst rebounding rate in the NBA. I'm a little concerned with his usage and definitely won't be rostering him in cash games, but he has the type of upside you look for when building tournament lineups. He'll likely have a low(ish) ownership percentage in this one as well following his recent string of ineffectiveness. Give him a look in tourneys, but you've been warned: The floor is lower than any other center at this price point.
- Marc Gasol vs Houston (7100) - Gasol has predictably seen some positive regression in his offensive efficiency after a very slow start to the season. He is also seeing heavy minutes with backup center Brandan Wright injured, averaging 38 MPG since Wright went down. He is averaging 38.25 over his past four, and put up less than 32.75 over that span. In a game against the league's worst defense, the Grizzlies are projected to score 6.7 more than their season average. I expect that scoring boost will affect their leading scorer more than any other player. Gasol has an elite floor, and an elevated ceiling in this matchup. I'm definitely looking at him more in cash games than GPPs, but he's a terrific play regardless of format.
- Jared Sullinger vs Brooklyn (6200) - Sully has topped 29 in seven of his last eight games and averaged 34.28 DK PPG over that span. He's also seeing more solidified minutes, playing 30+ in three of his past five. Brooklyn has a bottom five defense and they defend center worse than any position (26th in DVP cs Cs). Sully is in play in cash and tournaments at this price, as he only needs 31.3 to pay off his salary and has topped that in five of past eight games.
- Alexis Ajinca vs San Antonio (3500) - Ajinca was forced into a large role with Anthony Davis and Omer Asik out and responded with 31 DK points in 22 minutes. He would have seen more minutes if he could have stayed out of foul trouble, and against San Antonio's physical front court, he could definitely log 25-30 minutes if Davis and Asik both sit. He's averaging .97 DK points per minute, and could be in line for a very productive night if he indeed does see heavy minutes. You're going to need cheapies like Ajinca and Jokic to fit in Westbrook's price tag. Ajinca is in play in both cash and tourneys if both New Orleans bigs sit.
- Nikola Jokic vs Phoenix (3500) - Did you see what the 20 year old Serbian rookie did against Tim Duncan and LaMarcus Aldridge last game? Jokic dropped a 50 burger in 32 minutes behind 23 points, 12 rebounds, three blocks, and two steals. Hell, he even made a three pointer for good measure! He appears to be over his back issues, and should continue to see fairly significant minutes in games the Nuggets need him to match up against opposing teams with physical centers. That should be the case tonight against Tyson Chandler and the Suns. Be sure to monitor the news to see if he starts, but if so, Jokic packs uncommon upside for a near-min salary player. I don't trust him in cash games, but he's a terrific GPP option if starting.