NBA DFS Breakdown - 11/27
@Jagibbs_23 November 27
Game Scripts:
Shooutouts: Games with the highest O/U. Teams with (O/U in parenthesis)
LAC vs New Orleans (213.5)
Boston vs Washington (210.5)
Blowout Concerns: Games you may want to avoid due to the large differences in team totals. (Proj. Team Total in parenthesis)
Houston (104.8) vs Philadelphia (93.8)
Denver (93.5) vs San Antonio (103)
Pace Up: Teams seeing a big increase in pace due to matchup. It’s worth considering targeting players on this list because they’ll have more possessions than normal. Conversely, it may be worth considering fading teams that are on the opposite end of these matchups, because they’re playing down in pace.
Milwaukee (+2.1)
Detroit (+1.7)
Cleveland (+1.7)
Minnesota (+1.6)
San Antonio (+1.4)
Memphis (+1.0)
Fantasy Friendly Matchups: Teams playing against bottom ten team defenses in fantasy points allowed this year. EX: Offense (Matchup - DVP Rank)
Philadelphia (Houston - 30)
Houston (Philadelphia - 28)
Minnesota (Sacramento - 27)
San Antonio (Denver - 26)
LAC (New Orleans - 25)
Milwaukee (Orlando - 24)
Indiana (Chicago - 22)
Boston (Washington - 21)
Back to Back Concerns: Teams on the back end of a back to back set
None! Happy Thanksgiving!
*Be sure to monitor the @FF_Underground account throughout the day to keep updated on the developing injury situations. Much changes throughout the day, and I'll keep you updated.
Point Guard:
- Chris Paul vs New Orleans (8500) - CP3 appears to be over his groin injury following a 35 minute, 48.25 point performance against the Jazz. That is great news for DFS players because he draws a matchup against the Pelicans tonight, who are ranked 29th in DVP vs PGs on the year. Blake Griffin will draw a matchup with Anthony Davis, and in his career Griffin has averaged over six less points per game when facing The Brow. Paul has averaged 43.62 DK PPG in such meetings, which I believe is largely due to him needing to take on a larger offensive role with Griffin locking horns with Davis. This is the perfect time to target Paul at a depressed price tag, (down $1,200 from his price to begin the month) in a great matchup. He's in play in GPPs and cash games.
- Reggie Jackson @ OKC (7200) - Jackson has been up and down this season, but when he's up, he offers more upside than any of the PGs in his price range. He also has an incredibly high usage rate for a 7k player. His 31.5 usage rate ties Damian Lillard for sixth in the NBA, and the players ahead of him are an average price of $10,520 tonight on DraftKings. I'm not saying he's as talented as those options, but he's a very talented player that is seeing the volume of the best players in the NBA. It's just speculation, but I think he turns more of that volume into shot attempts than normal in this revenge game against the Thunder. We all know Jackson plays with a chip on his shoulder and thinks he is every bit as good as Russell Westbrook. You may not buy into most revenge narratives, but it doesn't get much juicier than Jackson's first game back at OKC after demanding a trade.
Jackson's tweet following the trade: "crying tears of joy."
Jackson on his return: "I know how it was. I was booed when I came out there to start there last year. So I expect some of the same treatment... I'm excited to show the league every night what I can do as a player, not just one group of people. It's going to be another test for us. It's going to be a hostile environment and I look forward to going and playing."
This should be fun to watch! In an up-tempo game against the team that didn't think he was good enough to start, Jackson could put up a monster performance. He's my favorite GPP PG tonight.
- Zach LaVine @ Sacramento (4800) - Assuming Rubio is out, LaVine will draw the start in an up-tempo matchup against a porous Sacramento defense. The Kings have allowed the fourth most fantasy points to opposing teams this year, and LaVine is never afraid to shoot. I don't love the price, but LaVine has shown the ability to post huge lines when Rubio is out, and he's worth a look in GPPs if he's starting.
- Isaiah Canaan @ Houston (3900) - Canaan has been scoring the ball well for Philadelphia recently, and it led to him drawing the start in his last game. He responded to that opportunity with 27.25 DK points in 32 minutes. He has now topped 26 DK points in three straight games and is averaging 27.33 over that span. He draws a matchup against Houston tonight, who is giving up the most fantasy points to opposing teams and ranks 25th in DVP vs PGs and 23rd vs SGs. If you're into narratives, this is also a revenge game for Canaan, who was shipped out of Houston after two seasons. He may have an extra chip on his shoulder in this one, and against the league's worst defense, that could result in a big game. If he is starting again, he is a viable punt option in GPPs.
Shooting Guard:
- James Harden vs Philadelphia (10100) - Houston may be struggling as a team, but Harden has been putting up some monster individual performances for DFS owners recently. Harden has topped 50 DK points in eight of his last 11 games and has two 70+ games mixed in there. He just hung 40 actual points on Tony Allen, one of the best wing defenders in the NBA, and a matchup against the Sixers will be a walk in the park in comparison. Philadelphia has defended SG well this season, but they've allowed the third most fantasy points to opposing teams this year. Considering no SG in the NBA has the usage and role to match Harden, I'm going to overlook the "bad" individual matchup and assume Harden will carve up this Sixers defense. Vegas has this one projected to possibly turn into a blowout, but I'm not overly concerned about it the way Houston has been playing lately. If you're paying up for a stud on this slate, I have Harden projected to have the highest ceiling, so target him in tournaments.
- Andrew Wiggins @ Sacramento (7100) - Wiggins is coming off of his worst shooting performance in the past three weeks, and hopefully that will keep some people off of him tonight. Before his "let-down" game, (26 DK points) Wiggins had topped 27 DK points in nine straight games and topped 20 actual points in all but one of those games. During that stretch, Wiggins averaged 36.78 DK PPG. I expect him to get back on track in this matchup against Sacramento, who has allowed the fourth most fantasy points to opposing teams this year and are ranked 29th in DVP vs SGs and 20th vs SFs. This is a big pace-up game for the Wolves, which fits Wiggins's play style. Ricky Rubio also may miss this one, which would give a boost to Wiggins. In games Rubio has missed since the beginning of last year, Wiggins has averaged nearly three more DK PPG. It all adds up for Wiggins to have a very productive game tonight, and he's my favorite option at SG today.
- Evan Turner vs Washington (5000) - The way to attack Washington over the past two years has been with wings, and it's reflected in their DVP, as they're ranked 30th vs SFs and 20th vs SGs. Avery Bradley has been the SG who has seen the biggest upgrade without Marcus Smart, but I’ll be pivoting to Turner for $1,400 cheaper. In games Smart has been out or limited this year, Turner has averaged 29.51 minutes and 3.13 DK PPG. He's coming off of a 32.25 point, 36 minute performance and is looking to build off of that in this up-tempo matchup against Washington. Turner makes for a nice salary-saving option in tournaments tonight.
- Gerald Green @ New York (3300) - Green has always been able to fill it up in a hurry and he is not afraid to take shots, which is something we as DFS players want from our cheapies. He started the last game for Luol Deng and played 38 minutes, tooks 17 shots, and registered 25.25 fantasy points. If he starts again, he'll draw the defense of the Knicks, who are ranked 24th in DVP vs SFs. Assuming he sees heavy minutes again, he has the potential to be a very nice value play. Over the past two seasons, Green has averaged 31.69 DK PPG in the 25 games he has seen 32 or more minutes. I doubt he'll score that many tonight, but there are very few punt options that boast the upside Green does.
Small Forward:
- Kevin Durant vs Detroit (9600) - This will be the third game since Durant has returned from injury, and I think he will continue to see his numbers trend upwards following a 45.5 and 52 point performance. Detroit is a solid defensive team but they are allowing teams to shoot the eighth highest 3P% against them in the NBA, which is good news for Durant, who is shooting six threes a game at a 47.5% clip. My projections give Durant the fourth highest floor and the fifth highest ceiling on the slate. Considering he's still priced under 10k and is only the third priciest SF on the slate, he's a real value at only $9,600.
- Rudy Gay vs Minnesota (7200) - DeMarcus Cousins is questionable for this game, which means Gay may continue to see heavy usage. He’s finally starting to fill the box score, topping 29 in six straight games. He’s also been hitting the glass harder lately, averaging nine RPG over his past three, and I expect that to continue in this one if Boogie Cousins doesn't play. He'll likely be very popular coming off of a 50 point performance, but with Paul George, LeBron, Durant, Kawhi, and Melo all on the slate his ownership may stay at a reasonable level. He has similar potential to those names if Cousins is out, and is considerably cheaper. He's a terrific play tonight.
- Robert Covington @ Houston (5100) - Hopefully you took my advice and rostered Covington in his last game, because he absolutely crushed value with his 45 point performance. Covington is beginning to find his stroke after starting the year slow and then getting injured. He’s topped 32 points in three straight games, and hit multiple threes in each game. He’s also seen an increase in minutes in the last three games, and with Nik Stauskas out in this one he has a chance at 35+ minutes again. Covington also has the revenge factor working in his favor in this one, as he gets to take on the Rockets for the first time since they gave up on him two years ago. Houston also presents a favorable matchup, as they're ranked 27th in DVP vs SFs. Covington would be one of my favorite plays at this bargain price without the revenge factor, and that just makes his matchup even more enticing. He's worth a look in all formats tonight.
- Matt Barnes vs Atlanta (3600) - Surprisingly enough, it has been Barnes who has seen the biggest boost from Zach Randolph's absence. Barnes has topped 20 DK points and 30 minutes in each of his past four games, averaging 27.94 DK PPG and 33.5 MPG over that span. Atlanta has been only average defensively this season and Memphis is projected to outscore their season average by 3.7 in this one. If Z-Bo is out, Barnes is once again a terrific value play at near-min price, albeit one with limited upside.
Power Forward:
- Kevin Love @ Charlotte (8300) - Charlotte is ranked 29th in DVP vs PFs this year, and that is largely fueled by their bottom 15 rebounding rate. Marvin Williams is ranked 45th in rebounding rate among PFs, and Cody Zeller isn't much better, ranking 29th among PFs. Love has been absolutely eating glass this year for Cleveland, averaging 11.8 RPG. He's first in rebounding rate among qualified PFs and should have no problem collecting boards against this undersized frontcourt. The absence of Timofey Mosgov has helped Love too, as he's averaging 47.69 over his past four games. Get him in those tournament lineups!
- Paul Millsap @ Memphis (8000) - Millsap continues to be an incredibly consistent option at PF for the Hawks and DFS players alike. He may not be a sexy pick, but he has 30+ points in every game but one, and has eleven 40 point performances. He draws a matchup against Memphis, who has the seventh worst rebounding rate in the NBA and has been even worse on the glass lately with Z-Bo out. Memphis also has struggled to defend opposing PFs this year, ranking 23rd in DVP vs PFs. If Randolph misses again, Millsap will be matched up with undersized defenders such as Jeff Green and Matt Barnes, which makes him an even more appealing option. He's a terrific cash game play if you can afford it.
- Kristaps Porzingis vs Miami (7300) - If you've read my stuff for very long, you realize I love to target players the game after they let down the masses. It's hard to call a 35.5 point game a let-down, but many (myself included) expected much more from the rookie in that matchup. His price has risen again, and Miami is a fairly tough matchup, so Porzingis may see lower ownership. This makes him a very appealing option in tournaments. He's seen 36+ minutes in three straight games, and is averaging 47.5 over that span. He's topped 46 in three of his past five games, and one of those was a 47.5 point performance against Miami. He's a great tournament play in this one, as his peripheral stats give him huge upside if his shot is falling.
- Tristan Thompson @ Charlotte (6000) - Thompson's price continues to creep up, but it's not to the point to put him out of strong cash game consideration yet. Big Al is 41st in rebounding rate among centers and the Hornets are in the bottom half of the league as a team. Thompson (4th in rebounding rate in the NBA) should have no problem piling up rebounds tonight. He has double digit boards in his past four games and is averaging 13.68 RPG in three starts. He's a cash only play, because his upside is limited due to lack of usage rate, but he has a very solid floor, and makes for a great mid-priced pick to stabilize cash lineups.
Center:
- Nikola Vucevic vs Milwaukee (6600) - I'll just start this by saying Scott Skiles is by far my least favorite DFS coach in the NBA. He runs the most random, illogical lineups in the NBA, and seems to kill my lineups every time I talk myself into rostering a Magic player. Just when you think someone's minutes are secure, they randomly get 20 mins and drop a dud in my lineup. I have made a rule to never roster Orlando players in cash going forward, so keep that in mind when considering Vucevic tonight. Horrible coaching aside, Vucevic is in a prime spot tonight. His price has dropped considerably because of Skiles's shenanigans, but he saw 32 minutes and put up 46.5 points in his last game. He draws a matchup against the Bucks, who have the worst rebounding rate in the NBA, and have allowed opposing centers to put up some big fantasy games this season. Vucevic is my favorite GPP center on the slate tonight.
- Marcin Gortat @ Boston (5400) - After a slow start to the season, Gortat is starting to right the ship. A big part of his recent success is the Wizards integrating him into the offense more like they did last year. Over the first eight games of the year, Gortat saw a usage rate of 18.61, but his usage rate has been 22.88 over the past four. The increased usage has led to much better play. Gortat has topped 30 in five of his last eight games, averaging 29.72 DK PPG over that span. He also has a nice individual matchup against Jared Sullinger, who he has averaged 37.12 DK PPG against in eight career games. Gortat will definitely be overlooked on such a large slate, and makes for a nice option in GPPs and cash games.
- Nikola Jokic vs San Antonio (4600) - In case you don't remember, Jokic's coming out party came against San Antonio a week ago. Since taking over as the starting center, Jokic has averaged 31.31 DK PPG in 25.25 MPG. With Faried and Lauvergne already declared out, he's still the only option Denver has inside. San Antonio is a tough matchup, but he's simply too talented to be priced below 5k considering his role. Give him a long look in tournaments.