Top Week Seventeen Wide Receivers
@Jagibbs_23 January 2
Hello all and welcome in to the final DFS breakdown of the regular season! I've greatly enjoyed being able to bring you guys content all season and I hope you continue to check in for my post-season write ups as well! Here are my top WRs of Week 17:
That's all I have for you this week, thanks again for reading and following this season. If you have any questions or comments, please tweet at me @Jagibbs_23. Best of luck this weekend!
- Odell Beckham Jr. vs Philadelphia (9000) - The big debate this week will be what studs to pay up for. There are four or five elite WRs in plus matchups and many will choose to pay up at RB as well with Devonta Freeman, Adrian Peterson, and DeAngelo Williams all in good spots too. I’m here to tell you that OBJ has the highest ceiling of the bunch and you can get him at manageably low ownership with so many other top options in good matchups. Before Beckham lost his mind in the game against Josh Norman he was on a white-hot streak, averaging 31.43 DK PPG over a six week span. Now he is $500 cheaper and finds himself in a terrific spot. The other Giants weapons proved last week that this offense cannot function without Beckham and I expect them to feature their star wideout in what Vegas expects to turn into a shootout (50+ points O/U). The Eagles pass defense has been horrible over the second half of the season and this is a team that appears to have mailed it in. Expect OBJ to feast on this weak secondary with the only thing that can slow him down being his attitude. Julio and Nuk have similar upsides in great matchups, but OBJ is my preferred play of the bunch.
- Brandon Marshall @ Buffalo (7900) - If you want an option with similar upside as the elite options at a much cheaper price, Marshall is your man. Marshall put up 115 yards and two scores last week against a Belichick scheme that was ranked fifth in DVOA vs number one WRs before being torched by Marshall. He now has a much easier task against a Buffalo defense that lost their right CB Stephon Gilmore to the IR two weeks ago and will be without their left CB Ronald Darby as well. Expect Marshall to decimate the Bills’ backup perimeter CBs in a must-win game for the Jets. Fitz-Marshall is my second favorite stack of the weekend, right behind Eli-OBJ.
- A.J. Green vs Baltimore (7500) - Everyone is talking about which two WRs to pay up for between Antonio Brown, Odell Beckham, Julio Jones, DeAndre Hopkins, and Brandon Marshall. By now you have probably already made up your mind on who you prefer out of the top tier WRs this week, so let me further complicate things for you by throwing in one of my favorite GPP plays of the weekend - A.J. Green. Green will come at much lower ownership due to concerns over his QB play, but McCarron has zeroed in on Green recently and will likely continue that against a Baltimore defense allowing the fourth most points to WRs but just the second fewest to TEs and sixth fewest to RBs. It’s also worth noting that Cincinnati always emphasizes getting Green involved against Baltimore. Here is his average line in his past four games against the Ravens: 11.75 targets, seven catches, 142.5 yards, and 1.25 TDs, good for 31 DK PPG. I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see Green go for similar numbers against a weak Baltimore pass defense in a game the Bengals have a lot to play for.
- Michael Floyd vs Seattle (5200) - Advanced metrics point to Seattle’s second and third CBs playing very poorly this year, but it hasn’t often shown on the box score due to their opponents lack of an effective third weapon. When Seattle has faced team’s with capable third WRs they have been absolutely torched, as evidenced by Markus Wheaton’s nine catches, 201 yards, and a score on 13 targets in week 12 and Michael Floyd’s seven catch, 113 yard, two TD performance on nine targets in week 10. Floyd will run the majority of his routes against DeShawn Shead and Jeremy Lane, who Pro Football Focus have graded out as a 40 and 49 respectively (out of 100). Over the past four weeks, Floyd has led the Cards in targets, with 37 as opposed to Fitz’s 27 and Brown’s 26 and he has topped 100 yards in three of those games. Keep an eye on his health because he is questionable with a knee injury. If he sits, J.J. Nelson is a sneaky min-priced GPP play.
- Jordan Matthews @ NYG (4700) - It never feels good to lock Matthews into your lineup, but he has topped 100 yards in back to back games and had hit pay dirt in four of his past five games. He will look to cap off a disappointing sophomore campaign with a big game against a porous Giants defense in what could easily turn into a shootout. He’ll line up against fill in slot CB Trevin Wade, whom he has a five inch advantage over. He also makes for a nice contrarian way to pair with OBJ as part of a game stack, as most will be on Zach Ertz as the preferred Philly pass catcher.
- James Jones vs Minnesota (3800) - Many defenses are referred to as “funnel defenses” because they funnel opposing offenses to pass because they are stout against the run and susceptible through the air. The Vikings present a different sort of funnel defense. They are average against the pass and run, but there is a clear way to attack them through the air due to their CB personnel. Slot CB Captain Munnerlyn effectively eliminates opposing slot WRs on a weekly basis, while perimeter CBs Xavier Rhodes and Terence Newman are beatable. This is reflected in their DVOA numbers, where Minnesota ranks 12th vs WR1s and 23rd vs WR2s, while ranking second against slot WRs. With this in mind, I expect Jones to be the most heavily targeted WR for the the Packers, as he was in the Week 11 matchup with the Vikings. He was able to put up a six catch, 109 yard, one TD performance in that game. Jones has seen his target totals increase in four straight weeks, and I expect him to see near the eleven he received last week. At only $3,800, Jones is a terrific under the radar option this week.
That's all I have for you this week, thanks again for reading and following this season. If you have any questions or comments, please tweet at me @Jagibbs_23. Best of luck this weekend!