#MCM - Justin Forsett, RB, Baltimore Ravens
-Jagibbs23 August 31
Alright, it is Man Crush Monday, and I couldn't think of anyone better to start off the year with than Justin Forsett. It is always cool when you can find a down-to-earth guy in professional sports - it seems like it is becoming harder and harder to find athletes that aren't complete idiots these days. Forsett is easy to root for because he is genuinely a stand-up guy, and he makes it even easier to root for him with his awesome performances on the field. I could give you tons of quotes and interviews to better demonstrate his character, but ultimately you come to this site for fantasy, so let's get to why I also love him for fantasy this season:
Lets start by examining Forsett's incredible performance last season. Forsett rushed for 1,266 yards last season. (5th overall) He was eighth in rushing TD with 8, and led the league in yards per carry with 5.4. He also led the league in carries of 20+ and 40+, with 17 and 3 respectively. Those numbers just go to show what an explosive runner Forsett was in 2014. He also finished 8th in RB points according to standard scoring, and that number would have been higher if he had been given the starting job from the get-go. He was only handed the rock 10 times per game over the first 5 games.
Let's now examine the change in philosophy, as Forsett transitions from a Gary Kubiak led offense to a unit run by Marc Trestman. Most people would take the stance that going from run-heavy Kubiak to pass-happy Trestman is a negative for a fantasy RB. In most cases I would agree. In Forsett's case though, I actually think Trestman will boost his fantasy value. Here is why:
Trestman turned Matt Forte into the fantasy monster that he has been the past two seasons. If you've read my "DO NOT DRAFT!" article, you have already seen this stat, but I'll give it again for those who haven't seen it:
With Trestman: 17.34 carries per game, 88 catches per year, 1,890 total yards per season, 11 TD per season, 255 fantasy points per season
3 years before Trestman: 16 carries per game, 49 catches per year, 1,512 total yards per season, 6.33 TD per season, 189.2 fantasy points per season
As you can see, Trestman didn't add to Forte's carries all that much. What he did that boosted Forte's value so tremendously was he targeted him more heavily than we've ever seen a RB be targeted before. He got him out in space, and the results were two incredible years for Forte owners.
Now I am not saying that because of those numbers Forsett is guaranteed to start catching 90 passes a year and putting up 250 fantasy points. I do think that Forsett will be able to come close to replicating those numbers though because of his unique skill set. Before Forsett proved he could be an every-down back in 2014, he was looked at as a pass-catching specialist. I have some numbers pulled up to compare Forsett and Forte's receiving ability:
Forte:
Career catch rate before Trestman: 75%
Catch rate in 2 years with Trestman: 78%
Career yards per catch: 8.4
Forsett:
Career catch rate: 75%
Career yards per catch: 7.0
Forsett clearly has the ability to be an effective pass catcher. He might not be quite the receiver that Forte is, but he is very close. I think he easily breaks his career high 44 catches, and has the potential to get up in the 70-100 range.
Many people think that Forsett's rushing attempts are bound to go down this year, and while I agree, I don't think it will be the dramatic drop people are calling for. For reference, Forte averaged 278 carries per season under Trestman. I think Forsett's carries might go down from slightly 235, but I don't think there's anyway he falls below 200. Forsett also isn't a volume runner, (as reflected in his 5.4 YPC) so he doesn't need a ton of carries to pile up fantasy points.
With all these factors considered, I think a safe projection for Forsett's touches this season would be 220 carries with 60 catches. I think he could easily exceed those numbers and get 300+ touches, but we'll just use 220 and 60 for our projections. For yards per carry and reception we'll just use his career averages, even though I think he'll improve on both those numbers in Trestman's scheme, just as Forte did. His career YPC and YPR are 5.1 and 7.0 respectively. With those projections, we can safely expect 1,542 all-purpose yards from Forsett this year. For Forsett's projected TD, we'll just give him 8, (What he had last season) even though Forte saw his TD average jump from 6.33 to 11 per year. With a line of 1,542 yards and 8 TD, Forsett could be safely expected to get 202 fantasy points this season, which would be good for 7th among RB according to ESPN projections (He's currently being drafted as the 14th RB according to ESPN ADP)
Those are the minimum, base-level expectations for Forsett, assuming he doesn't have any injury issues. He could very easily exceed those numbers if he experiences the increase in production that Forte received under Trestman.
In addition to being extremely talented, Forsett has almost no injury history to speak of. According to sportsinjurypredictor.com, (great tool by the way) Forsett has only had two injuries listed in his 7 year career. Another thing to consider with Forsett is that while he is 29 years old, he has had minimal work over his time in the NFL. It's not like being a running back magically makes your body age more quickly than other human beings. 29 is considered a prime age for several sports. So when looking at Forsett as a potential threat to break down entering his age 30 season, keep in mind that Forsett has only 48 more career carries than 23 year old Le'Veon Bell. The dude still has fresh legs, and he's ready to dominate the league again this year.
I just really do not get how Forsett is being drafted in the 4th round. I will take it though! I absolutely love Forsett this year, (currently on every fantasy team I have, including dynasty) and I will continue to scoop him up in the 3rd round while others waste picks on the likes of Peyton Manning and LeSean McCoy. Forsett has extremely high upside in Trestman's offense, and has very limited downside with no injury history, no real competition for touches, and minimal tread on his 29 year old tires.
Forsett is my #MCM! I love him unconditionally, and am glad that I have already drafted in the majority of my leagues, because my competitors can't draft him before me. (they would do that after reading this just to make me mad) I can't wait to watch as Forsett tears up the league again this year!
Lets start by examining Forsett's incredible performance last season. Forsett rushed for 1,266 yards last season. (5th overall) He was eighth in rushing TD with 8, and led the league in yards per carry with 5.4. He also led the league in carries of 20+ and 40+, with 17 and 3 respectively. Those numbers just go to show what an explosive runner Forsett was in 2014. He also finished 8th in RB points according to standard scoring, and that number would have been higher if he had been given the starting job from the get-go. He was only handed the rock 10 times per game over the first 5 games.
Let's now examine the change in philosophy, as Forsett transitions from a Gary Kubiak led offense to a unit run by Marc Trestman. Most people would take the stance that going from run-heavy Kubiak to pass-happy Trestman is a negative for a fantasy RB. In most cases I would agree. In Forsett's case though, I actually think Trestman will boost his fantasy value. Here is why:
Trestman turned Matt Forte into the fantasy monster that he has been the past two seasons. If you've read my "DO NOT DRAFT!" article, you have already seen this stat, but I'll give it again for those who haven't seen it:
With Trestman: 17.34 carries per game, 88 catches per year, 1,890 total yards per season, 11 TD per season, 255 fantasy points per season
3 years before Trestman: 16 carries per game, 49 catches per year, 1,512 total yards per season, 6.33 TD per season, 189.2 fantasy points per season
As you can see, Trestman didn't add to Forte's carries all that much. What he did that boosted Forte's value so tremendously was he targeted him more heavily than we've ever seen a RB be targeted before. He got him out in space, and the results were two incredible years for Forte owners.
Now I am not saying that because of those numbers Forsett is guaranteed to start catching 90 passes a year and putting up 250 fantasy points. I do think that Forsett will be able to come close to replicating those numbers though because of his unique skill set. Before Forsett proved he could be an every-down back in 2014, he was looked at as a pass-catching specialist. I have some numbers pulled up to compare Forsett and Forte's receiving ability:
Forte:
Career catch rate before Trestman: 75%
Catch rate in 2 years with Trestman: 78%
Career yards per catch: 8.4
Forsett:
Career catch rate: 75%
Career yards per catch: 7.0
Forsett clearly has the ability to be an effective pass catcher. He might not be quite the receiver that Forte is, but he is very close. I think he easily breaks his career high 44 catches, and has the potential to get up in the 70-100 range.
Many people think that Forsett's rushing attempts are bound to go down this year, and while I agree, I don't think it will be the dramatic drop people are calling for. For reference, Forte averaged 278 carries per season under Trestman. I think Forsett's carries might go down from slightly 235, but I don't think there's anyway he falls below 200. Forsett also isn't a volume runner, (as reflected in his 5.4 YPC) so he doesn't need a ton of carries to pile up fantasy points.
With all these factors considered, I think a safe projection for Forsett's touches this season would be 220 carries with 60 catches. I think he could easily exceed those numbers and get 300+ touches, but we'll just use 220 and 60 for our projections. For yards per carry and reception we'll just use his career averages, even though I think he'll improve on both those numbers in Trestman's scheme, just as Forte did. His career YPC and YPR are 5.1 and 7.0 respectively. With those projections, we can safely expect 1,542 all-purpose yards from Forsett this year. For Forsett's projected TD, we'll just give him 8, (What he had last season) even though Forte saw his TD average jump from 6.33 to 11 per year. With a line of 1,542 yards and 8 TD, Forsett could be safely expected to get 202 fantasy points this season, which would be good for 7th among RB according to ESPN projections (He's currently being drafted as the 14th RB according to ESPN ADP)
Those are the minimum, base-level expectations for Forsett, assuming he doesn't have any injury issues. He could very easily exceed those numbers if he experiences the increase in production that Forte received under Trestman.
In addition to being extremely talented, Forsett has almost no injury history to speak of. According to sportsinjurypredictor.com, (great tool by the way) Forsett has only had two injuries listed in his 7 year career. Another thing to consider with Forsett is that while he is 29 years old, he has had minimal work over his time in the NFL. It's not like being a running back magically makes your body age more quickly than other human beings. 29 is considered a prime age for several sports. So when looking at Forsett as a potential threat to break down entering his age 30 season, keep in mind that Forsett has only 48 more career carries than 23 year old Le'Veon Bell. The dude still has fresh legs, and he's ready to dominate the league again this year.
I just really do not get how Forsett is being drafted in the 4th round. I will take it though! I absolutely love Forsett this year, (currently on every fantasy team I have, including dynasty) and I will continue to scoop him up in the 3rd round while others waste picks on the likes of Peyton Manning and LeSean McCoy. Forsett has extremely high upside in Trestman's offense, and has very limited downside with no injury history, no real competition for touches, and minimal tread on his 29 year old tires.
Forsett is my #MCM! I love him unconditionally, and am glad that I have already drafted in the majority of my leagues, because my competitors can't draft him before me. (they would do that after reading this just to make me mad) I can't wait to watch as Forsett tears up the league again this year!