Love/Hate Players for 2015
-NM41 September 2
Players I Love
1. Ben Roethlisberger (ADP: 7th round; Me: 6th round)
Everything is favorable for Big Ben this season. He is coming off of a red-hot year in which he threw for 4,952 yards (best in the league) and threw 32 touchdowns, both of which are career bests. He has one of the league's best running backs behind him in Le'Veon Bell and is stacked with extremely talented WRs. I think I could throw 30 touchdowns with Antonio Brown, Martavis Bryant and Markus Wheaton as my WRs. He is projected as the 6th QB by most, so let everyone jump on Luck and Rodgers early and steal Big Ben in the 6th round as he is geared up for a big season.
2. Jeremy Maclin (ADP: 7th round; Me: 5th round)
Jeremy packed up his bags and taken his talents to Kansas City this year. Many see this as a huge hit to his fantasy stock because he has short-armed Alex Smith throwing him the ball. While I agree Kansas City isn't the ideal fantasy situation for any WR, I think people are overreacting. He is going in the 6th round when he finished last year a top 10 WR. Maclin is in the prime of his career and will be a target monster on a sharp Chiefs offense. I doubt he cracks the top 10 again but look for him to find the top 15 mark. As of the writing of this piece, Maclin is tied for 6th in the league in preseason receptions and has been a clear focal point of the offense. As for the idea that Alex Smith’s lack of arm strength will hurt Maclin’s fantasy value, Maclin is much more than just a deep threat. He most certainly has the ability to beat cornerbacks on a go route, but his career yards per reception (13.9) is closer to Wes Welker’s (11.0) than to deep ball specialist Desean Jackson (17.7).
3. Martavis Bryant (ADP: 10th round; Me: 9th round)
Bryant keeps looking better and better to me. He started his career in week 7 of last season and put up impressive numbers as a rookie. In his 10 games he went for 550 yards and 8 touchdowns, which wasn’t quite good enough to pull much attention off of OBJ and Mike Evans, but are still great numbers for a rookie WR. He is a big-play guy and won't get the focus of the defense because of some guy named Antonio Brown lining up on the other side of the ball. He is starting the season with a 4 game suspension which certainly hurts his value, but once he is back on the field look for the 6’4” Bryant and his 4.4 wheels to have an explosive year.
4. Emmanuel Sanders (ADP: 4th round; Me: 3rd round)
Sanders is another guy who I really think is being overlooked. He finished last year as the 6th overall WR, yet as we start the 2015 season he is being ranked as the 13th WR. This surprises me because not much has changed with his situation. He still has Peyton Manning throwing him the ball and Demaryius lining up next to him - I just don't understand the perceived decrease in value. He put up big numbers in 2014, posting 1,400 yards, 9 touchdowns and 101 receptions. As he enters his second year with the Broncos, the chemistry should be better, and I expect to see similar numbers, or even a slight increase.
5. Calvin Johnson (ADP: 3rd round Me: 2nd round)
This seems like the first time in a thousand years Calvin does not enter the season as the undisputed number one WR. He had a rough 2014 as he was bogged down by an ankle injury. After returning from this injury, he never could get things kick started. I fully expect to see the old Megatron we know and love in 2015. He enters the season at the age of 29, so I don't believe father time will catch up to him quite yet. If he can stay healthy, and Matthew Stafford can bounce back from his subpar 2014 season, I expect Megatron to get right back on track.
6. Justin Forsett (ADP: 4th round Me: 3rd round)
The journeyman Justin Forsett finally found a good home last year in Baltimore. He entered 2014 as a running back who had never eclipsed 700 yards and 4 touchdowns in his 7 seasons in the NFL. With Ray Rice running into legal trouble and getting suspended indefinitely, the Ravens started their year without a clear cut number one running back, but that changed quickly with the production they received from Forsett. With a nearly 6 yard per carry average through the first 5 games, the Ravens knew they had something in Forsett; so they kept feeding him, and he finished with a league high 5.4 YPC, 1,266 rushing yards, and 8 touchdowns, all of which stomped his previous season stats. He enters the 2015 season in a similar situation to last year, other than the fact that he has a new offensive play caller in Marc Trestman—which I see as an upgrade. He finished last year as the 7th overall RB, and he is being drafted at RB15 this year, so jump on the great value.
Players I Hate
1. Frank Gore (ADP: 5th round; Me: 6th round)
Father time has never lost and that's the case with Frank Gore. He enters his 11th season at the age of 32, and in running back years that's like 75. No other running back in the league has the wear and tear he has endured. He starts the year with 2,442 career attempt which is 400 more than Marshawn Lynch. He is in a good situation in Indianapolis, but I would be surprised if he makes it through the year healthy.
2. Jonathan Stewart (ADP: 4th round Me: 5th round)
Every year this guy gets naive fantasy owners excited, but he never fails to lets us down. He is one of the most injury prone players in the NFL and hasn't played in more than 13 games since 2011. Stewart has the talent, but he is such a risky pick. He starts the year as the clear cut number 1 RB, but if he goes down Carolina has a fleet of young talented young running backs eager to take his starting job. Stewart has never topped 1,200 yards and 10 TDs, which provides for an extremely low ceiling for such a high risk pick.
3. Matt Forte (ADP: 1st round Me: 2nd round)
Forte is much like Gore in the sense that I think the miles on his body will be the issue. How much can this guy have left in the tank? For the last few years I have questioned if he can maintain such a high level of play, and the last few seasons he has proven he can. But I believe this is the year where he will fall out of the top ten and have a noticeable decline. He is on a struggling Bears team which has lost its identity. With Cutler always being so hot and cold, along with losing Brandon Marshall, opposing defenses can focus more attention on Forte. I would stay away from him in the bottom of the first round or early second, but I would be fine with him if he falls toward the bottom of the second.
4. New York Giants’ Backfield
The Giants backfield has turned into a three headed monster over the offseason, consisting of Rashad Jennings, Andre Williams, and Shane Vereen. Jennings is the best of the three, entering the season as the number one running back. I have always been a fan of his, but he is always fighting injuries and can never make it through the year healthy. I would expect his workload to stay somewhat capped through the year due to the depth the Giants have. Andre had a solid first year in the NFL posting over 700 rushing yards and 7 touchdowns, but with Rashad ahead of him, touches will be hard to come by. Shane Vereen will be the third down back, and the one catching the most balls out of the three. With never getting to see his full potential in New England, and with it being such a crowded backfield, he is another guy I would just try to avoid.
5. Keenan Allen (ADP: 5th round; Me: 6th round)
After having a very strong rookie year with 1,000 yards and 8 touchdowns, he really fell on his face during his sophomore campaign. He only accumulated 780 yards and cut his touchdown total in half to four. For a WR who mainly threatens defenses near the red zone, only catching four touchdowns scares me away from drafting him in 2015. He is on an unpredictable Chargers offense with a fleet of average WR’s surrounding him. His main problem in 2014 was simply getting shut down in the red zone. He is still young so I am not not giving up on him yet, but the major sophomore slump steers me clear of Allen until he establishes some consistency.
6. Sammy Watkins (ADP: 5th round; Me: 6th round)
I’m not really hating on Sammy here—he will be great. I do think he needs another year of developing before we get too excited about him though. The main problem here is the lack of a competent quarterback. With Sammy’s big-play style, it is vital for him to have a sound quarterback throwing to him. He needs a QB who can throw a long, accurate ball so he can rip defenses off for catches over 40 yards, but also needs someone who can spread the ball around to take the focus off of him. With Tyrod Taylor starting week one, Sammy will be stuck with a QB who has an inconsistent arm and does most of his work out of the pocket. It’s simply not an ideal pairing for Sammy. Next year I'll likely be more optimistic about him, but for now he isn't worth the 5th round price tag.
1. Ben Roethlisberger (ADP: 7th round; Me: 6th round)
Everything is favorable for Big Ben this season. He is coming off of a red-hot year in which he threw for 4,952 yards (best in the league) and threw 32 touchdowns, both of which are career bests. He has one of the league's best running backs behind him in Le'Veon Bell and is stacked with extremely talented WRs. I think I could throw 30 touchdowns with Antonio Brown, Martavis Bryant and Markus Wheaton as my WRs. He is projected as the 6th QB by most, so let everyone jump on Luck and Rodgers early and steal Big Ben in the 6th round as he is geared up for a big season.
2. Jeremy Maclin (ADP: 7th round; Me: 5th round)
Jeremy packed up his bags and taken his talents to Kansas City this year. Many see this as a huge hit to his fantasy stock because he has short-armed Alex Smith throwing him the ball. While I agree Kansas City isn't the ideal fantasy situation for any WR, I think people are overreacting. He is going in the 6th round when he finished last year a top 10 WR. Maclin is in the prime of his career and will be a target monster on a sharp Chiefs offense. I doubt he cracks the top 10 again but look for him to find the top 15 mark. As of the writing of this piece, Maclin is tied for 6th in the league in preseason receptions and has been a clear focal point of the offense. As for the idea that Alex Smith’s lack of arm strength will hurt Maclin’s fantasy value, Maclin is much more than just a deep threat. He most certainly has the ability to beat cornerbacks on a go route, but his career yards per reception (13.9) is closer to Wes Welker’s (11.0) than to deep ball specialist Desean Jackson (17.7).
3. Martavis Bryant (ADP: 10th round; Me: 9th round)
Bryant keeps looking better and better to me. He started his career in week 7 of last season and put up impressive numbers as a rookie. In his 10 games he went for 550 yards and 8 touchdowns, which wasn’t quite good enough to pull much attention off of OBJ and Mike Evans, but are still great numbers for a rookie WR. He is a big-play guy and won't get the focus of the defense because of some guy named Antonio Brown lining up on the other side of the ball. He is starting the season with a 4 game suspension which certainly hurts his value, but once he is back on the field look for the 6’4” Bryant and his 4.4 wheels to have an explosive year.
4. Emmanuel Sanders (ADP: 4th round; Me: 3rd round)
Sanders is another guy who I really think is being overlooked. He finished last year as the 6th overall WR, yet as we start the 2015 season he is being ranked as the 13th WR. This surprises me because not much has changed with his situation. He still has Peyton Manning throwing him the ball and Demaryius lining up next to him - I just don't understand the perceived decrease in value. He put up big numbers in 2014, posting 1,400 yards, 9 touchdowns and 101 receptions. As he enters his second year with the Broncos, the chemistry should be better, and I expect to see similar numbers, or even a slight increase.
5. Calvin Johnson (ADP: 3rd round Me: 2nd round)
This seems like the first time in a thousand years Calvin does not enter the season as the undisputed number one WR. He had a rough 2014 as he was bogged down by an ankle injury. After returning from this injury, he never could get things kick started. I fully expect to see the old Megatron we know and love in 2015. He enters the season at the age of 29, so I don't believe father time will catch up to him quite yet. If he can stay healthy, and Matthew Stafford can bounce back from his subpar 2014 season, I expect Megatron to get right back on track.
6. Justin Forsett (ADP: 4th round Me: 3rd round)
The journeyman Justin Forsett finally found a good home last year in Baltimore. He entered 2014 as a running back who had never eclipsed 700 yards and 4 touchdowns in his 7 seasons in the NFL. With Ray Rice running into legal trouble and getting suspended indefinitely, the Ravens started their year without a clear cut number one running back, but that changed quickly with the production they received from Forsett. With a nearly 6 yard per carry average through the first 5 games, the Ravens knew they had something in Forsett; so they kept feeding him, and he finished with a league high 5.4 YPC, 1,266 rushing yards, and 8 touchdowns, all of which stomped his previous season stats. He enters the 2015 season in a similar situation to last year, other than the fact that he has a new offensive play caller in Marc Trestman—which I see as an upgrade. He finished last year as the 7th overall RB, and he is being drafted at RB15 this year, so jump on the great value.
Players I Hate
1. Frank Gore (ADP: 5th round; Me: 6th round)
Father time has never lost and that's the case with Frank Gore. He enters his 11th season at the age of 32, and in running back years that's like 75. No other running back in the league has the wear and tear he has endured. He starts the year with 2,442 career attempt which is 400 more than Marshawn Lynch. He is in a good situation in Indianapolis, but I would be surprised if he makes it through the year healthy.
2. Jonathan Stewart (ADP: 4th round Me: 5th round)
Every year this guy gets naive fantasy owners excited, but he never fails to lets us down. He is one of the most injury prone players in the NFL and hasn't played in more than 13 games since 2011. Stewart has the talent, but he is such a risky pick. He starts the year as the clear cut number 1 RB, but if he goes down Carolina has a fleet of young talented young running backs eager to take his starting job. Stewart has never topped 1,200 yards and 10 TDs, which provides for an extremely low ceiling for such a high risk pick.
3. Matt Forte (ADP: 1st round Me: 2nd round)
Forte is much like Gore in the sense that I think the miles on his body will be the issue. How much can this guy have left in the tank? For the last few years I have questioned if he can maintain such a high level of play, and the last few seasons he has proven he can. But I believe this is the year where he will fall out of the top ten and have a noticeable decline. He is on a struggling Bears team which has lost its identity. With Cutler always being so hot and cold, along with losing Brandon Marshall, opposing defenses can focus more attention on Forte. I would stay away from him in the bottom of the first round or early second, but I would be fine with him if he falls toward the bottom of the second.
4. New York Giants’ Backfield
The Giants backfield has turned into a three headed monster over the offseason, consisting of Rashad Jennings, Andre Williams, and Shane Vereen. Jennings is the best of the three, entering the season as the number one running back. I have always been a fan of his, but he is always fighting injuries and can never make it through the year healthy. I would expect his workload to stay somewhat capped through the year due to the depth the Giants have. Andre had a solid first year in the NFL posting over 700 rushing yards and 7 touchdowns, but with Rashad ahead of him, touches will be hard to come by. Shane Vereen will be the third down back, and the one catching the most balls out of the three. With never getting to see his full potential in New England, and with it being such a crowded backfield, he is another guy I would just try to avoid.
5. Keenan Allen (ADP: 5th round; Me: 6th round)
After having a very strong rookie year with 1,000 yards and 8 touchdowns, he really fell on his face during his sophomore campaign. He only accumulated 780 yards and cut his touchdown total in half to four. For a WR who mainly threatens defenses near the red zone, only catching four touchdowns scares me away from drafting him in 2015. He is on an unpredictable Chargers offense with a fleet of average WR’s surrounding him. His main problem in 2014 was simply getting shut down in the red zone. He is still young so I am not not giving up on him yet, but the major sophomore slump steers me clear of Allen until he establishes some consistency.
6. Sammy Watkins (ADP: 5th round; Me: 6th round)
I’m not really hating on Sammy here—he will be great. I do think he needs another year of developing before we get too excited about him though. The main problem here is the lack of a competent quarterback. With Sammy’s big-play style, it is vital for him to have a sound quarterback throwing to him. He needs a QB who can throw a long, accurate ball so he can rip defenses off for catches over 40 yards, but also needs someone who can spread the ball around to take the focus off of him. With Tyrod Taylor starting week one, Sammy will be stuck with a QB who has an inconsistent arm and does most of his work out of the pocket. It’s simply not an ideal pairing for Sammy. Next year I'll likely be more optimistic about him, but for now he isn't worth the 5th round price tag.