NBA DFS Breakdown - 12/22
@Jagibbs_23 December 22
First, I want to thank all of you that have liked/commented on my blogs on RotoGrinders over the past month. RG named my blog the “Best Post From a New Blogger” and that is in large part due to my readers, so thanks! I have been too busy to post any content over the past couple weeks, but I should be able to post with much more regularity over the next month, starting with tonight’s disgusting slate of NBA hoops! There are four games on tap with very low O/U’s all around. I believe we can dig into this slate and still be profitable though, so let’s get started with the game scripts.
Game Scripts:
Shootouts: Games with the highest O/U. Teams with (O/U in parenthesis)
Denver vs LAL (203.5)
Blowout Concerns: Games you may want to avoid due to the large differences in team totals. (Proj. Team Total in parenthesis)
Philadelphia (92.3) vs Memphis (102.3)
Projected +/- : Teams projected to score well above or below their season average. (Increase/decrease in parenthesis)
Memphis (+6.3)
Denver (+5.6)
LAL (+2.7)
Miami (+2.2)
Fantasy Friendly Matchups: Teams playing against bottom ten team defenses in fantasy points allowed this year. EX: Offense (Matchup – DVP Rank)
Denver (LAL - 30)
Memphis (Philadelphia - 28)
LAL (Denver - 24)
*Be sure to monitor the @FF_Underground account throughout the day to keep updated on the developing injury situations. Much changes throughout the day, and I’ll keep you updated.
Point Guard:
Kyle Lowry vs Dallas (8300) - Lowry has been excellent this season, but recently has struggled to find his shot, which has resulted in a price drop to 8.3k. I think tonight’s matchup with Deron Williams and the Mavs is the perfect opportunity for a bounce back. Since the beginning of last season, Lowry has averaged 48.17 DK PPG against D-Will as opposed to 38.45 in other games. His ten career matchups with Williams have resulted in a six point boost to his DK PPG from his career average. Last time they matched up, Lowry put up 59.75 DK points and with DeRozan matched up with Wesley Matthews, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Lowry be very aggressive again. He also may be a bit fired up after being ejected in the Raptors last game. I prefer to pay down for Jameer in cash, but Lowry is a terrific tournament option.
D’Angelo Russell @ Denver (5500) - Clarkson is the safer play of the two due to the extra minutes he sees, but of the three PGs in this game, Jameer Nelson is the safest. So instead of wasting your time with a redundant pick, I’m giving you the guard I prefer in tournaments. Russell has responded well to being benched, actually posting the most productive stat lines of the three Laker guards over the past six games. Over his past six, Russell is averaging 30.79 DK PPG in 31.33 MPG with two 40+ DK point games mixed in there. He has the most upside of any of the PGs in this game and may be the lowest owned. The Nuggets defense as a whole is horrendous, and PG is no exception. They’re ranked 29th in DVP vs PGs, and I expect a big game from Russell in this up-tempo game.
Jameer Nelson vs LAL (5400) - If you somehow haven’t yet figured out who my cash game PG is, I’ll end the suspense and tell you: It’s Jameer Nelson. Since Emmanuel Mudiay went down, Nelson has averaged 30.55 DK PPG in 33.6 MPG as the starting PG for Denver. The most important factor for Nelson is the consistent minutes. He should get 30+ minutes again tonight against a Lakers team that has bled points to opposing PGs for years now. They’re ranked 30th in DVP vs PGs, and allow the most fantasy points to opposing teams. The Nuggets have the highest team total on the board and are projected to outscore their season average by 5.6 despite Mudiay being out and Gallinari and Arthur being questionable. The price is still too low on Nelson, and the spot doesn’t get much better than this. You need exposure to Nelson tonight if you want to cash.
Shooting Guard:
Will Barton vs LAL (6600) - I know you don’t like paying nearly 7k for a player coming off the bench, but Barton is worth every penny in this matchup. Barton is averaging 35.75 DK PPG in 32.6 MPG in his last six games, and could see a major uptick in usage tonight if Gallinari doesn’t go. In a weak SG pool, Barton is easily the most enticing play.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope @ Miami (5300) - I almost never play KCP, but he’s worth a look on this small slate due to the minutes he is seeing relative to his price. He’s averaging 38.81 DK PPG in 43.75 MPG over his past four games. I don’t love the matchup against a great Miami defense, but KCP will be needed to log heavy minutes again for Detroit to slow down D-Wade. It’s hard to pass on a player who sees 40 minutes and 15 shots at 5.3k.
Small Forward:
Matt Barnes @ Philadelphia (5500) - I would prefer to play him on FanDuel, where he is actually $600 cheaper, but he is still in play on DraftKings at this price. Since becoming the Grizzlies starting small-ball PF, Barnes has topped 31 DK points in every game he stayed out of foul trouble, averaging 37.5 DK PPG in 35.25 MPG in those four games. He draws a premier matchup tonight against the Sixers who rank 29th in DVP vs SFs and PFs, the two positions Barnes plays. In a game the Grizz are projected to outscore their season average by 6.3 points, Barnes should have no problem reaching value. He’s in play in both tournaments and cash formats.
Chandler Parsons @ Toronto (4600) - If you’re like me, you have been chomping at the bit for the opportunity to play Parsons at his depressed price tag when his minute limit was removed. Well we’re not quite there yet, but Dallas has said he can play up to 30 MPG, and he’s coming off of a 32 minute, 37.25 point performance. It’s been four games since that game, so he should have fresh legs for tonight’s up-tempo matchup against Toronto. Also working in Parsons’ favor is the matchup against Terrence Ross (assuming he starts). Due to injury, the Raps have replaced DeMarre Carroll's solid defense (career 0.5 Defensive +/-) with Terrence Ross’ career -1.2 D+/- mark. With D-Will and Dirk in tough matchups, Parsons may be looked to to provide more offense. He’s found his stroke lately, and should be able to put up big numbers in extended minutes tonight. Give him a long look at only $4,600.
James Johnson vs Dallas (3900) - Be sure to monitor the news; if Johnson draws another start for Toronto he is a terrific value at 3.9k. “Neck Tat” has started back to back games for the Raptors, playing 32 mins in each and averaging 27 DK PPG. Since the beginning of last year, Johnson has averaged 29.75 DK PPG in games he’s played 27+ minutes. He’s a bit too volatile to use in cash games, but he’s worth a look in GPPs at this price.
Power Forward:
Kenneth Faried vs LAL (6100) - Faried’s minutes are too up and down to trust him in cash, but he has elite upside in tonight’s matchup with the Lakers. Los Angeles is ranked 23rd in DVP vs PFs and have the second-worst rebounding rate in all of basketball along with the second worst defensive efficiency. It’s also worth noting that Faried’s rebounding rate jumps from 19.0% (second best in the NBA among PFs) to 23.6% when Gallinari is out of the lineup. He’s worth a look even if Gallo plays, but if he is unable to go tonight, Faried becomes a premier GPP play at only 6.1k in this matchup.
Luis Scola vs Dallas (4900) - Nobody ever wants to roster Scola, but on a small slate like this, he’s not a bad option. Hear me out… He draws the defense of Dirk Nowitzki and the Mavs, who are ranked 28th in DVP vs PFs. Since the beginning of last year, Scola is averaging 11 more DK PPG in games against Dirk, including a 41.5 point game against him this season. Since 2011 Scola has averaged 5.5 more DK PPG against Dirk. His minutes are secure with DeMarre Carroll and Jonas Valanciunas still out, and with DeRozan dealing with the tough defense of Wesley Matthews, Scola may be leaned on a little more heavily for offensive production. It’s not going to feel good rostering him, but that means he’ll likely be low owned, making him a viable option in tournaments at this price on a small slate.
Center:
Marc Gasol @ Philadelphia (7500) - Hopefully the Sixers can keep this game close, because the matchup is terrific for Gasol, who is averaging 38.4 DK PPG over his past six games. Philly is ranked 25th in DVP vs Cs and has the fifth worst rebounding rate in the NBA. The Sixers are also the most blocked team in the NBA, allowing opposing Cs to average 3.5 BPG against them, which gives a slight boost to any Center playing them. Gasol is the clear cash game center, and the matchup provides upside to roster him in GPPs as well, as he could easily post a 50-burger against this weak Philadelphia front-court.
Hassan Whiteside vs Detroit (6800) - While I like Drummond quite a bit in this matchup too, it’s very hard for me to pass on Whiteside at 6.8k when he is seeing a full compliment of minutes recently. He’s played 30+ in three straight games and averaged 41.58 DK PPG in those games. The only thing that will keep him off the court tonight is foul trouble, because the Heat are going to need every last minute they can get from him to match Drummond’s physicality. He only played 29 mins in their last matchup because the game turned into a blowout, but he was still able to put up 37.25 DK points in that game. It’s also worth noting that opposing centers have averaged 2.4 blocks per game against the Pistons, good for tenth in the NBA, which bodes well for Whiteside’s league-leading 4.0 BPG.
Zaza Pachulia @ Toronto (5700) - Three players on this slate are averaging a double-double. In fact only ten NBA players are averaging a double-double this year. Zaza is one of them. Many will be scared off by the matchup against Bismack Biyombo, but Pachulia was able to grab 18 rebounds on his way to 36.5 DK points against 2013 Defensive Player of the Year, Marc Gasol, in his last matchup. I’m not clamoring to get Pachulia in my lineups tonight, but if you can’t afford the premier center options, Zaza isn’t a bad option at only 5.7k, especially on DK where you get a boost for double-doubles.
That’s all I have for you tonight, I hope to get an article out for tomorrow’s big slate too. If you have any questions or comments, please post them, I love feedback and talking NBA with other DFS players. Best of luck to everyone on tonight’s slate!
Game Scripts:
Shootouts: Games with the highest O/U. Teams with (O/U in parenthesis)
Denver vs LAL (203.5)
Blowout Concerns: Games you may want to avoid due to the large differences in team totals. (Proj. Team Total in parenthesis)
Philadelphia (92.3) vs Memphis (102.3)
Projected +/- : Teams projected to score well above or below their season average. (Increase/decrease in parenthesis)
Memphis (+6.3)
Denver (+5.6)
LAL (+2.7)
Miami (+2.2)
Fantasy Friendly Matchups: Teams playing against bottom ten team defenses in fantasy points allowed this year. EX: Offense (Matchup – DVP Rank)
Denver (LAL - 30)
Memphis (Philadelphia - 28)
LAL (Denver - 24)
*Be sure to monitor the @FF_Underground account throughout the day to keep updated on the developing injury situations. Much changes throughout the day, and I’ll keep you updated.
Point Guard:
Kyle Lowry vs Dallas (8300) - Lowry has been excellent this season, but recently has struggled to find his shot, which has resulted in a price drop to 8.3k. I think tonight’s matchup with Deron Williams and the Mavs is the perfect opportunity for a bounce back. Since the beginning of last season, Lowry has averaged 48.17 DK PPG against D-Will as opposed to 38.45 in other games. His ten career matchups with Williams have resulted in a six point boost to his DK PPG from his career average. Last time they matched up, Lowry put up 59.75 DK points and with DeRozan matched up with Wesley Matthews, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Lowry be very aggressive again. He also may be a bit fired up after being ejected in the Raptors last game. I prefer to pay down for Jameer in cash, but Lowry is a terrific tournament option.
D’Angelo Russell @ Denver (5500) - Clarkson is the safer play of the two due to the extra minutes he sees, but of the three PGs in this game, Jameer Nelson is the safest. So instead of wasting your time with a redundant pick, I’m giving you the guard I prefer in tournaments. Russell has responded well to being benched, actually posting the most productive stat lines of the three Laker guards over the past six games. Over his past six, Russell is averaging 30.79 DK PPG in 31.33 MPG with two 40+ DK point games mixed in there. He has the most upside of any of the PGs in this game and may be the lowest owned. The Nuggets defense as a whole is horrendous, and PG is no exception. They’re ranked 29th in DVP vs PGs, and I expect a big game from Russell in this up-tempo game.
Jameer Nelson vs LAL (5400) - If you somehow haven’t yet figured out who my cash game PG is, I’ll end the suspense and tell you: It’s Jameer Nelson. Since Emmanuel Mudiay went down, Nelson has averaged 30.55 DK PPG in 33.6 MPG as the starting PG for Denver. The most important factor for Nelson is the consistent minutes. He should get 30+ minutes again tonight against a Lakers team that has bled points to opposing PGs for years now. They’re ranked 30th in DVP vs PGs, and allow the most fantasy points to opposing teams. The Nuggets have the highest team total on the board and are projected to outscore their season average by 5.6 despite Mudiay being out and Gallinari and Arthur being questionable. The price is still too low on Nelson, and the spot doesn’t get much better than this. You need exposure to Nelson tonight if you want to cash.
Shooting Guard:
Will Barton vs LAL (6600) - I know you don’t like paying nearly 7k for a player coming off the bench, but Barton is worth every penny in this matchup. Barton is averaging 35.75 DK PPG in 32.6 MPG in his last six games, and could see a major uptick in usage tonight if Gallinari doesn’t go. In a weak SG pool, Barton is easily the most enticing play.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope @ Miami (5300) - I almost never play KCP, but he’s worth a look on this small slate due to the minutes he is seeing relative to his price. He’s averaging 38.81 DK PPG in 43.75 MPG over his past four games. I don’t love the matchup against a great Miami defense, but KCP will be needed to log heavy minutes again for Detroit to slow down D-Wade. It’s hard to pass on a player who sees 40 minutes and 15 shots at 5.3k.
Small Forward:
Matt Barnes @ Philadelphia (5500) - I would prefer to play him on FanDuel, where he is actually $600 cheaper, but he is still in play on DraftKings at this price. Since becoming the Grizzlies starting small-ball PF, Barnes has topped 31 DK points in every game he stayed out of foul trouble, averaging 37.5 DK PPG in 35.25 MPG in those four games. He draws a premier matchup tonight against the Sixers who rank 29th in DVP vs SFs and PFs, the two positions Barnes plays. In a game the Grizz are projected to outscore their season average by 6.3 points, Barnes should have no problem reaching value. He’s in play in both tournaments and cash formats.
Chandler Parsons @ Toronto (4600) - If you’re like me, you have been chomping at the bit for the opportunity to play Parsons at his depressed price tag when his minute limit was removed. Well we’re not quite there yet, but Dallas has said he can play up to 30 MPG, and he’s coming off of a 32 minute, 37.25 point performance. It’s been four games since that game, so he should have fresh legs for tonight’s up-tempo matchup against Toronto. Also working in Parsons’ favor is the matchup against Terrence Ross (assuming he starts). Due to injury, the Raps have replaced DeMarre Carroll's solid defense (career 0.5 Defensive +/-) with Terrence Ross’ career -1.2 D+/- mark. With D-Will and Dirk in tough matchups, Parsons may be looked to to provide more offense. He’s found his stroke lately, and should be able to put up big numbers in extended minutes tonight. Give him a long look at only $4,600.
James Johnson vs Dallas (3900) - Be sure to monitor the news; if Johnson draws another start for Toronto he is a terrific value at 3.9k. “Neck Tat” has started back to back games for the Raptors, playing 32 mins in each and averaging 27 DK PPG. Since the beginning of last year, Johnson has averaged 29.75 DK PPG in games he’s played 27+ minutes. He’s a bit too volatile to use in cash games, but he’s worth a look in GPPs at this price.
Power Forward:
Kenneth Faried vs LAL (6100) - Faried’s minutes are too up and down to trust him in cash, but he has elite upside in tonight’s matchup with the Lakers. Los Angeles is ranked 23rd in DVP vs PFs and have the second-worst rebounding rate in all of basketball along with the second worst defensive efficiency. It’s also worth noting that Faried’s rebounding rate jumps from 19.0% (second best in the NBA among PFs) to 23.6% when Gallinari is out of the lineup. He’s worth a look even if Gallo plays, but if he is unable to go tonight, Faried becomes a premier GPP play at only 6.1k in this matchup.
Luis Scola vs Dallas (4900) - Nobody ever wants to roster Scola, but on a small slate like this, he’s not a bad option. Hear me out… He draws the defense of Dirk Nowitzki and the Mavs, who are ranked 28th in DVP vs PFs. Since the beginning of last year, Scola is averaging 11 more DK PPG in games against Dirk, including a 41.5 point game against him this season. Since 2011 Scola has averaged 5.5 more DK PPG against Dirk. His minutes are secure with DeMarre Carroll and Jonas Valanciunas still out, and with DeRozan dealing with the tough defense of Wesley Matthews, Scola may be leaned on a little more heavily for offensive production. It’s not going to feel good rostering him, but that means he’ll likely be low owned, making him a viable option in tournaments at this price on a small slate.
Center:
Marc Gasol @ Philadelphia (7500) - Hopefully the Sixers can keep this game close, because the matchup is terrific for Gasol, who is averaging 38.4 DK PPG over his past six games. Philly is ranked 25th in DVP vs Cs and has the fifth worst rebounding rate in the NBA. The Sixers are also the most blocked team in the NBA, allowing opposing Cs to average 3.5 BPG against them, which gives a slight boost to any Center playing them. Gasol is the clear cash game center, and the matchup provides upside to roster him in GPPs as well, as he could easily post a 50-burger against this weak Philadelphia front-court.
Hassan Whiteside vs Detroit (6800) - While I like Drummond quite a bit in this matchup too, it’s very hard for me to pass on Whiteside at 6.8k when he is seeing a full compliment of minutes recently. He’s played 30+ in three straight games and averaged 41.58 DK PPG in those games. The only thing that will keep him off the court tonight is foul trouble, because the Heat are going to need every last minute they can get from him to match Drummond’s physicality. He only played 29 mins in their last matchup because the game turned into a blowout, but he was still able to put up 37.25 DK points in that game. It’s also worth noting that opposing centers have averaged 2.4 blocks per game against the Pistons, good for tenth in the NBA, which bodes well for Whiteside’s league-leading 4.0 BPG.
Zaza Pachulia @ Toronto (5700) - Three players on this slate are averaging a double-double. In fact only ten NBA players are averaging a double-double this year. Zaza is one of them. Many will be scared off by the matchup against Bismack Biyombo, but Pachulia was able to grab 18 rebounds on his way to 36.5 DK points against 2013 Defensive Player of the Year, Marc Gasol, in his last matchup. I’m not clamoring to get Pachulia in my lineups tonight, but if you can’t afford the premier center options, Zaza isn’t a bad option at only 5.7k, especially on DK where you get a boost for double-doubles.
That’s all I have for you tonight, I hope to get an article out for tomorrow’s big slate too. If you have any questions or comments, please post them, I love feedback and talking NBA with other DFS players. Best of luck to everyone on tonight’s slate!