NBA DFS Breakdown - 11/22
@Jagibbs_23 November 22
Hey guys, it's @Jagibbs_23 bringing you the positional breakdown again for this Sunday's slate on DraftKings. Before I get started, I have noticed the articles I've been posting to my blog on Rotogrinders have been getting quite a few "likes" and some some very kind comments, and I wanted to let you guys know I really appreciate your feedback. I love working on these articles when I get the time to dedicate to a thorough research and writing process, and it means a lot to see the positive feedback, so thanks! This article will focus on the main slate on DK starting at 6 pm ET. I am sooooo excited to play this slate! It is five games, which is the ideal size in my opinion, and there is fantasy goodness to be had in every single game. There's only one blowout concern on the slate, there's no back to backs, and every game has an O/U of 200+. I know most will be focused on football this Sunday, but my focus will be on the hardwood, not the turf, as we're in for some exciting basketball! Let's get started!
Game Scripts:
Shooutouts: Games with the highest O/U. Teams with (O/U in parenthesis)
Denver vs Golden State (213.5)
New Orleans vs Phoenix (210.5)
LAC vs Toronto (207)
Blowout Concerns: Games you may want to avoid due to the large differences in team totals. (Proj. Team Total in parenthesis)
Denver (101) vs Golden State (112.5)
Pace Up: Teams seeing a big increase in pace due to matchup. It’s worth considering targeting players on this list because they’ll have more possessions than normal. Conversely, it may be worth considering fading teams that are on the opposite end of these matchups, because they’re playing down in pace.
Brooklyn (+2.2)
Denver (+1.7)
Portland (+1.5)
New Orleans (+1.3)
Toronto (+1.1)
Fantasy Friendly Matchups: Teams playing against bottom ten team defenses in fantasy points allowed this year. EX: Offense (Matchup - DVP Rank)
Portland (LAL - 28)
Phoenix (New Orleans - 26)
Boston (Brooklyn - 25)
Golden State (Denver - 23)
Back to Back Concerns: Teams on the back end of a back to back set
None! :)
*Be sure to monitor the @FF_Underground account throughout the day to keep updated on the developing injury situations. Much changes throughout the day, and I'll keep you updated.
Point Guard:
Game Scripts:
Shooutouts: Games with the highest O/U. Teams with (O/U in parenthesis)
Denver vs Golden State (213.5)
New Orleans vs Phoenix (210.5)
LAC vs Toronto (207)
Blowout Concerns: Games you may want to avoid due to the large differences in team totals. (Proj. Team Total in parenthesis)
Denver (101) vs Golden State (112.5)
Pace Up: Teams seeing a big increase in pace due to matchup. It’s worth considering targeting players on this list because they’ll have more possessions than normal. Conversely, it may be worth considering fading teams that are on the opposite end of these matchups, because they’re playing down in pace.
Brooklyn (+2.2)
Denver (+1.7)
Portland (+1.5)
New Orleans (+1.3)
Toronto (+1.1)
Fantasy Friendly Matchups: Teams playing against bottom ten team defenses in fantasy points allowed this year. EX: Offense (Matchup - DVP Rank)
Portland (LAL - 28)
Phoenix (New Orleans - 26)
Boston (Brooklyn - 25)
Golden State (Denver - 23)
Back to Back Concerns: Teams on the back end of a back to back set
None! :)
*Be sure to monitor the @FF_Underground account throughout the day to keep updated on the developing injury situations. Much changes throughout the day, and I'll keep you updated.
Point Guard:
- Stephen Curry @ Denver (10900) - If you read my last article, (Hopefully so, I nearly swept my cash games on Friday) you remember me recommending Brandon Knight based on his matchup with Emmanuel Mudiay. Hopefully you took my advice, because Knight turned around and dropped 68.75 on the rookie. I love the young Mudiay, but a matchup against him automatically increases the upside of any point guard. Here are Mudiay's last three games: 85.75 DK points allowed to Brandon Knight and Ronnie Price(!). 73.5 DK points allowed to Tony Parker and Patty Mills. 55 combined points to Jrue Holiday and Ish Smith. Well things aren't about to get easier for Mudiay, as the 19 year old will be tasked with trying to slow down Steph Curry. I feel for Mudiay, I really do. Steph is going to put on an absolute show in this one, just like he did last time he played Mudiay (69.25 DK points with eight three pointers). I know some are concerned with the blowout factor, but Steph hasn't played less than 32 minutes in a game in the past three weeks and the Warriors are regularly huge favorites. I won't be building my cash games around Curry, but I love his upside in GPPs, especially since Westbrook is also on this slate, which should lower his ownership.
- Damian Lillard @ LAL (8700) - Lillard continues to be underpriced, as his price is the same it was to begin the season despite averaging 43.1 DK PPG this year. Below is a chart from basketballreference.com showing Lillard's DK points in relation to his implied points due to salary. As you can tell, Lillard has been a terrific value this season, topping value in every game but three (one of which was played with his thumb heavily bandaged due to his entire thumbnail on his shooting hand being ripped off the night before.) Lillard continues to see an insanely high usage rate of 31.5 for the Blazers, and has scored 20+ actual points in every game but the thumbnail game. He draws the Lakers tonight who play no defense against opposing point guards and allowed Lillard to score 4.7 more DK PPG against them than other teams last year. This game should stay relatively close since it's being played in LA, and Lillard has the chance to be the Late Night Hammer for your lineups tonight. I'm doing everything I can to fit Lillard in my cash lineup tonight, and he's a viable play in GPPs as well.
- Brandon Knight @ New Orleans (7900) - Knight has now scored 30+ real points in three of his past five games, and has his season average up to 39.6 following 78 and 68.75 point performances in two of his last three. While it's not popular to not be all in on the hottest item on the block, I'm afraid I'm going to be fading Knight tonight. I think people envision Knight having a sustainable ceiling of 65+ due to his recent performances, but I think those numbers have been inflated by uncharacteristic rebounding totals. Knight hit double-digit boards in both games, yet has never topped four RPG in a season and averages 3.5 RPG in his career. He's hitting the boards a little harder this year, (7.3 rebounding rate as opposed to a 6.8 last year) but it seems that these have just been two statistical anomalies that randomly occurred in the same week. I don't think it is a trend. In the three most recent games outside of his two huge rebounding games, Knight has six total rebounds. Another reason I'm off Knight is that I think the Pelicans DVP vs PGs is inflated due to Jrue Holiday sitting out some games and being limited in others. Jrue is currently seeing the most minutes he's seen all year, and is a very capable defender. All this being said, Knight could certainly reach 40-50 DK points if his shot is falling again, and his usage rate has been much higher over his recent hot streak, so he could reach value. My concern is that his ceiling is actually 50 points, not 65, and his floor is in the twenties. That's not what I'm looking for when paying nearly 8k for a player, especially with so many other options at PG. In conclusion, if you think Knight exploits this matchup and posts another 30+ point night with decent peripherals, put him in your lineups. Just know that his realistic ceiling isn't 65+ like Steph or Westbrook, but is more in the 50 range like Damian Lillard or Isaiah Thomas.
- Isaiah Thomas @ Brooklyn (7400) - IT2 has topped 30 points in each of his past five games, averaging 39 DK PPG over that span. Marcus Smart has already been declared out for this one, meaning Thomas will see an uptick in minutes and usage rate against a Brookyln team that doesn't play any defense and is in the bottom ten in DVP vs PGs. Assuming this game stays relatively close, Thomas should have no problem reaching value against the Nets. He is in play in both cash and tournaments tonight.
- Jrue Holiday vs Phoenix (4600) - THIS IS A CASH GAME ONLY PICK! Holiday is still on a minutes restriction, but his price has fallen to a point that he is in play in cash games. His upside is limited since he likely won't see over 27 minutes, so don't roster him in GPPs. The Suns are the only team on the slate that play at as fast of a pace as the Pelicans, and they have been average to opposing PGs this year. The Pelicans have a projected team total of 105.8, which is 5.5 higher than their season average. Holiday has been effective when on the court, averaging over a point per minute, and I expect that to be the case again tonight. He has topped 20 in six of his past eight games, and has three games of 27+. Again, do not play him in tournaments, but at this depressed price tag he is worth a look as a salary-saving cash game option that will get you 20-30 points.
- D'Angelo Russell vs Portland (4300) - After a slow start to the season, Russell has shown some promise recently, topping 20 in six of his last eight games. His minutes have been up recently as well, with 34 and 27 minutes in his past two. He's taken 29 shots over that span and averaged 27.88 DK PPG. He will draw the defense of Lillard and McCollum tonight, which has been a boost to opposing guards this season, as the Blazers are ranked 24th in DVP to guards this season. At only $4,300, Russell makes for an interesting punt play in tournaments, as he'll likely carry low ownership as well.
Shooting Guard: The SG position is pretty ugly tonight. With the way Knight has been playing, Bledsoe has seen decreased usage in recent games and is thus overpriced. I'll be punting the SG position in every lineup tonight, and here are the options I'm looking at as viable punt plays.
- Kobe Bryant vs Portland (5900) - Kobe is clearly on his last legs, but he has played 36 and 37 minutes in his past two games and has yet to score less than 20 DK points in a game. It's not going to be pretty, but he is going to get his shots up (16 FGA per game). His price has dropped to a season-low, despite Kobe playing his best basketball of the season and averaging 30.94 DK PPG over his past four. As always, make sure he's not going to sit this one out, but if he plays he is a nice option against a Blazers team ranked 28th in DVP vs SGs.
- Evan Turner @ Brooklyn (4800) - In games Marcus Smart has been out or limited this year, Turner has averaged 28.25 minutes and 31.34 DK PPG. Most will turn to Bradley because he'll likely draw the start, but he has actually played worse in games Smart missed. Turner is cheaper, and is the one I'll be giving my attention to in tournaments. In games Turner saw 28+ MPG last season, he averaged 34.18 DK PPG, so his numbers this year don't appear to be fluky. Brooklyn struggles to defend all positions and SG is no exception (24th in DVP). Turner is in line for a big night, and comes at a very nice discount.
- Gary Harris vs Golden State (3600) - Most will be on Barton due to his recent hot streak, but it is actually Harris who is drawing the starts for Denver and he is on a hot streak of his own. Harris has seen 29 MPG over his past three games, which he has turned into 25.5 DK PPG. It's also worth noting that the Nuggets gave Harris 29 minutes the last time they played Golden State, as they used him to try to defend Klay Thompson. The result was 25.25 DK points. This is definitely a GPP only play, as Harris has a floor of about ten points, but he has the potential for another 25-30 point game and he really opens up your roster construction.
- Rondae Hollis-Jefferson vs Boston (3600) - The rookie is coming off of a career performance against the Celtics, in which he put up 35.25 DK points in 31 minutes. He gets another crack at the Celtics in this one, and I think he has the potential to put up another big game. His minutes are fairly secure as a starter for the Nets, and his role may continue to grow on this 2-10 team as they look toward the future. His game also translates better to up-tempo games than other Brooklyn players, as evidenced by his two 30+ games against Boston and Golden State. Also, if there's a place to attack this surprisingly stingy Boston defense, it's been with wings. Boston is ranked 22nd in DVP vs both SGs and SFs. Hollis-Jefferson's floor is legitimately below ten points because he isn't heavily involved in the offense, but he has the potential to put up 30+ points if he's hitting the boards hard and is active in transition. Not many punt plays offer that type of upside. Target him in GPPs if you're feeling like living life on the edge this Sunday.
Small Forward: There's not much to like at SF either unfortunately unless some value opens up throughout the day. Here are three options I've identified as viable options at their price points.
- Al-Farouq Aminu @ LAL (6200) - Aminu continues to put up big stat lines, as that's back to back double-doubles and 37+ DK point performances for the Blazers off-season acquisition. He's scored 35+ in three of his last five, and only has one game of below 20 DK points this year. The Lakers are horrible at defending every position and SF is no exception, as they're ranked 26th in DVP vs SFs. Aminu should continue to hit the glass hard in this one against a Lakers team ranked 26th in rebounding rate. The Lakers SFs are especially bad at rebounding from the SF position. Three of the bottom five qualified SFs in rebounding rate are Lakers (Kobe 7.0 RR, World Peace 6.3 RR, Nick Young 4.9 RR). Aminu is behind only Josh Smith, who plays a lot of PF, in SF rebounding rate with 13.1, which is higher than that of Kawhi Leonard or Draymond Green for reference. In short, Aminu should eat up the Lakers on the glass, and if his shot is falling with any consistency, should also post another 35+ night in this one. Aminu is my favorite cash game SF option, and he's worth a look in GPPs as well due to the terrific matchup.
- Harrison Barnes @ Denver (5300) - I have to admit, Barnes is someone I rarely roster in DFS. Similar to Nic Batum, I seem to always pick him on the wrong night. But here's to not giving in to recency bias or "never-again" mentality! I have identified Barnes as having the highest upside/price among the SFs on today's slate, and therefore will be rostering him in some GPPs tonight. Barnes has seen an increase in usage rate over the past two games for Golden State, with 20+% in both, leading to double digit shot attempts in both as well as 30+ DK points. This game will be played at a blistering pace, which suits the athletic swingman well. Last time these two teams face off, Barnes went for 31.75 DK points. Don't roster him in cash, but give him a look in GPPs.
- Andre Iguodala @ Denver (5000) - Iggy is normally the prefered play for me between the two Golden State forwards due to his higher floor, and he's on my radar as a salary-saving option in cash games again tonight. I prefer players like Iguodala who contribute in all areas of the stat sheet, because they have an elevated floor and if their shot is falling they have a high ceiling as well. Iguodala has 19.5+ in each of his last ten games, and has topped 30 in two of those games. His usage rate isn't high enough for him to have the huge upside he showed in the post-season, but he's consistently seeing near 30 minutes in each game. I'd do everything I could to get Aminu in your cash game lineups, but if you can't make it work, it's never a bad plan to get Iggy with it in cash games.
Power Forward:
- Thaddeus Young vs Boston (6900) - The higher Young's price tag gets, the more leery I am of picking him. It feels like the floor is about to fall out just like we've seen happen so many times in the past in the middle of one of his hot streaks. I don't like Davis in his matchup against the Suns at that price, and Draymond Green is my fourth option on the Warriors, so I'm left rostering Thad again if paying up at PF. The matchup should lend itself well to Young's skill set, as Boston likes to get out and run, but they have also been very efficient defensively this season and are ranked 14th in DVP vs opposing PFs. Enough pessimism though, let's focus on the positives for Young. In his past four games, he's shooting 17.25 shots per game, has three double-doubles, and is averaging 41.06 DK PPG. He hasn't scored below 24 this month. All of the numbers add up to him being an excellent option in both cash and tournament formats, it just scares me as a seasoned DFS player.
- Dirk Nowitzki @ OKC (6300) - That's three straight 30+ games for Dirk, who has turned back the clock this season for the surprisingly competitive Mavs. Nowitzki has been essential to the Mavericks success, leading the team in PER, usage rate, and true shooting percentage. The Thunder are a below-average defense, ranking 17th in fantasy points allowed, and they're ranked 20th in DVP vs PFs. OKC has allowed opposing PFs to make 1.8 three pointers per game, sixth worst in the NBA. Opponents are also shooting 37% from three against them as a team, which is the eighth highest percentage in the NBA. Dirk is set up to have a solid performance in this one, and is in play in cash games.
- Julius Randle vs Portland (5800) - I wish Randle hadn't played well in his last game, because I would have loved to target him in this game at less than 5% ownership. Unfortunately he did drop 37.5 on the Raptors, and now will likely be a trendy pick for point chasers. Even if he is a little more popular, I'm not quite hipster enough to let that keep me off of him in this matchup. Portland has struggled against opposing bigs this year, and I think they will have a tough time matching the athleticism of Randle. Don't play him in cash games due to his volatility and tendency to get in foul trouble, but Randle is a fine option in GPPs at the cheapest price point we've seen since the season-opener.
Center:
- Jared Sullinger @ Brooklyn (6300) - Sully finally had the dud everyone was worried about, but it really wasn't his fault, he still averaged over a fantasy point per minute. Hopefully most will attribute his 19.5 point performance to Brad Steven's "unpredictable rotation" and be off of him, when in reality it was just due to the game turning into a blowout. Sullinger only played six and a half minutes in the third quarter before spending the remainder of the game as a spectator. This game is being played in Brooklyn without Marcus Smart, and Vegas has it projected to be closer. So instead of giving in to recency bias, I'm going back to the well with Sullinger, who had topped 29 in seven of his last eight games and averaged 34.28 DK PPG over that span before Friday's blowout. He had also been seeing more solidified minutes, playing 30+ in three of his past five. Brooklyn has a bottom five defense and they defend center worse than any position (25th in DVP cs Cs). Sully is in play in cash and tournaments at this price, as he only needs 31.6 to pay off his salary and has topped that in five of past nine games.
- Zaza Pachulia @ OKC (5500) - DeAndre who? Zaza is averaging a double-double for the Mavs, along with over a fantasy point per minute for fantasy owners. He's topped 23 in 10 of 13 games, and has topped 30 in 8 of 13. Despite his solid play, his price has remained in the mid 5k range, which results in him regularly exceeding value. The Thunder have a solid DVP vs opposing centers, but they're giving more minutes to Enes Kanter recently, who can't guard anyone. While he is never a sexy pick, Zaza is a solid bet to once again exceed value in this one, and is worth a look in any format.
- Enes Kanter vs Dallas (5100) - Speaking of Enes Kanter's pathetic defense, let's hope Coach Donovan continues to give Kanter more minutes, because fantasy owners don't care about defense and the big man is averaging well over a fantasy point per minute off the bench for OKC. Donovan has turned to Kanter in the last two games to give Westbrook some help carrying the offense while Ibaka has been struggling, and the result has been 35.63 DK PPG in 28 MPG. Don't go anywhere near him in cash because his minutes are far from secure, but this may be a chance to jump on him while he's underpriced in GPPs.
- Nikola Jokic vs Golden State (3600) - Alright, I may have gotten a little too excited for the young big man after he put on a show against Duncan. But he still got 4.14x value, so it wasn't the worst pick in the world. I'm going back again tonight, because I think he'll get minutes against the physical centers of Golden State. J.J. Hickson is two and three inches shorter than Ezeli and Bogut respectively, while Jokic (6'11") possesses the size to mix it up inside with them. He's averaging over a fantasy point per minute, and has shown the top-flight potential you look for in GPPs already. Be sure to monitor the news to see if he starts, but if so, Jokic packs uncommon upside for a near-min salary player. I don't trust him in cash games, but he's a terrific GPP option if starting.