NBA DFS Breakdown - 12/1
@Jagibbs_23 December 1
Game Scripts:
Shootouts: Games with the highest O/U. Teams with (O/U in parenthesis)
Brooklyn vs Phoenix (206)
Portland vs Dallas (203)
Blowout Concerns: Games you may want to avoid due to the large differences in team totals. (Proj. Team Total in parenthesis)
Cleveland (106) vs Washington (96.5)
Pace Up: Teams seeing a big increase in pace due to matchup. It’s worth considering targeting players on this list because they’ll have more possessions than normal. Conversely, it may be worth considering fading teams that are on the opposite end of these matchups, because they’re playing down in pace.
Cleveland (+3.0)
Brooklyn (+2.0)
Memphis (+1.6)
Fantasy Friendly Matchups: Teams playing against bottom ten team defenses in fantasy points allowed this year. EX: Offense (Matchup – DVP Rank)
Philadelphia (LAL - 28)
LAL (Philadelphia - 27)
Memphis (New Orleans - 26)
Phoenix (Brooklyn - 24)
Cleveland (Washington - 21)
Back to Back Concerns: Teams on the back end of a back to back set
Dallas traveling from Sacramento to Portland
Portland traveling from Los Angeles to Portland
*Be sure to monitor the @FF_Underground account throughout the day to keep updated on the developing injury situations. Much changes throughout the day, and I’ll keep you updated.
Point Guard:
- Brandon Knight @ Brooklyn (7900) - Knight has played some excellent ball lately, and he’s in a terrific spot in this one. This game has the highest O/U on the slate, and Brooklyn boasts one of the worst defenses in the NBA. They’re especially bad against PGs, ranking 25th in DVP, and Knight has a clear athletic advantage over Jarrett Jack. Knight has played especially well this year when he’s been in matchups against bottom-tier PG defenses. In case you need reminding, here are his last three games against teams ranked in the bottom five against PGs:
11/20 @ Denver - 68.75 DK points
11/16 vs LAL - 78 DK points
Knight has topped 30 points in each of his past eight games, and is averaging 47.16 over that span. In this matchup against the Nets, Knight is a premier play, and is worth a look in any format.
- Mike Conley @ New Orleans (6700) - Conley has been a very steady contributor for the Grizzlies, topping 27 DK points in each of his past eight games and averaging 36.19 during over that span. He draws a premier matchup in this one, as the Pelicans have allowed the fifth most fantasy points to opposing teams this year and rank dead last in DVP vs PGs. This is also a pace-up game for Memphis, which should benefit Conley. The Grizzlies are projected to outscore their season average by 4.1 points, and Conley should have a hand in a lot of that. Conley has a terrific floor and is one of the best bets to hit value among the PGs on tonight’s slate, making him a great cash game play.
- Jarrett Jack vs Phoenix (6100) - Jack’s volatility has kept his price floating around the 6k range, but he offers premier upside for a PG priced so conservatively. It can be very frustrating to roster him because he can get 50 one day and 17 the next, but that helps to keep his ownership level down as well, which makes him an enticing GPP option. This appears to be one of the matchups in which he could post a 50 burger. The game has the highest O/U on the slate, Brooklyn is projected to outscore their season average by 5.5 points, it’s a huge pace-up game, and the Suns are 24th in DVP vs PGs. I’m not playing him in cash games, but it all adds up for a big game on paper, which is enough for me to take a risk on Jack in GPPs.
- Isaiah Canaan vs LAL (5000) - Canaan has started back to back games for the Sixers. In those two games he has averaged 33.5 MPG, 16 FGA/G, 11 3PA/G, and 28.38 DK PPG. He put up those numbers against the defense of Patrick Beverly and Mike Conley. Tonight he draws a dream matchup against the Lakers, who have struggled to defend scoring PGs for years now. This year has been no exception, as the Lakers are ranked 29th in DVP vs PGs and have given up the third most fantasy points to opposing teams. The Sixers are projected to score 7.2 over their season average, and Canaan has led the team in shot attempts over the past two games. He’s one of my favorite plays of the entire slate tonight.
Shooting Guard:
- Bradley Beal @ Cleveland (6700) - Gary Neal sat out the last game for Washington, which led to a season-high 41 minutes for Beal. Beal turned those minutes into 41.5 DK points and his best shooting night since returning from shoulder injury. Beal is clearly healthy and is being leaned on heavily by the struggling Wizards. Cleveland is a good defensive team, but if there is a place to attack them, it is the defense of J.R. Smith, whom Beal has averaged 34 DK PPG against in his career. SG is pretty ugly today and Beal offers the most upside/dollar at this price.
- C.J. McCollum (6600) and Gerald Henderson (3000) vs Dallas - If Damian Lillard is unable to start this game, both McCollum and Henderson would become excellent value options at SG. Unfortunately this is the last game of the slate, so they may be risky options outside of late-swap sites like DraftKings.
- Rondae Hollis-Jefferson vs Phoenix (4900) - As long as he gets the minutes, RHJ is going to produce. In the four games prior to being limited to 21 minutes and laying a dud, Hollis-Jefferson had averaged 30 MPG and 32.56 DK PPG. He was making his living on the glass, piling up double-digit boards three times over that stretch. The games Hollis-Jefferson has excelled has been games the Nets have been playing up in pace, and tonight should be one such scenario, as the Suns play at the fastest pace of any team on this slate. He’s a GPP only option, but if he sees minutes in the thirties again he should have a productive night.
Small Forward:
- LeBron James vs Washington (9700) - James hasn’t put up huge numbers lately, but he still provides you with the highest floor of any player on the slate. He hasn’t been under 40 DK points in over a month and draws a matchup against the Wizards tonight who give up huge points to opposing wings on a regular basis. They have nobody who can come close to matching LeBron physically, so I don’t see that trend stopping tonight. This game will also be a huge pace-up game for the Cavs, and as such Vegas has them projected to outscore their season average by three points. There aren’t many studs to pay up for on tonight’s slate, yet there is quite a bit of value, so you should have no problem whatsoever fitting King James in your lineups tonight.
- Robert Covington vs LAL (6700) - Wow! Covington’s price has skyrocketed from $4,400 a week ago to $6,700. I guess that’s what happens when you average 49.33 DK PPG over a three game span. I love Covington and have been recommending him for a week straight now, but I think there is some regression coming. He can’t possibly keep producing defensive stats at the rate he is currently (8.33 combined steals/blocks per game over his past three). If those numbers regress to even an impressive rate of 3 combined steals/blocks, that is a loss of 10.66 DK points. Don’t get me wrong, I think Covington is a good player, but I’m just letting you know not to expect 50 DK PPG from him on a consistent basis. That being said, he draws a juicy matchup against the Lakers tonight who have the third worst defense in the NBA. They also rank 22nd in DVP vs SFs, and Vegas has the 76ers scoring 7.2 above their season average in this one. This game will likely be very sloppy, which could lead to additional steals and blocks for Covington. Nerlens Noel may miss this game too, which could lead to a boost in rebounds for Covington. All being said, I don’t expect Covington to continue at this pace in the future, but we may get another dose of fantasy goodness from him tonight. I’m confident rostering him in cash, but may avoid him in tournaments as he’ll likely see very high ownership due to recency bias.
- Tobias Harris @ Minnesota (6200) - I will just denote this by saying I honestly don’t remember the last time I’ve played an Orlando player and not been screwed over by Scott Skiles. So while Harris is a terrific option theoretically, there is a pretty decent chance Skiles decides he only gets to play 20 minutes tonight for no good reason. That being said, Harris has topped 30 minutes in eight of his last nine games (Guess which one I rostered him!) and has averaged 34.34 DK PPG in those games. The Timberwolves have been good defensively this season, but are only average against opposing SF/PFs. This is a slight pace-up game for Orlando, and I expect Harris to take advantage of this matchup and have another 30+ point performance. He’s a GPP only play for me though, as are all Magic players.
Power Forward:
- Thaddeus Young vs Phoenix (7100) - Young has quietly been one of the most consistent fantasy producers in the league over the last month, topping 30 DK points in every game since November 11th. He’s averaged 38.34 over his past eight, and I expect him to get close to that in an up-tempo game against the Suns with the highest O/U on the slate. Young is a viable option in cash games and GPPs tonight.
- Julius Randle @ Philadelphia (6100) - Randle has been inconsistent in his “rookie” season, but he’s flashed big upside with one 57 DK point game and several 30+ games thrown in. He’s scored 29+ in four of his past five games and draws a premier matchup tonight against the Sixers. Philadelphia has allowed the fourth most fantasy points to opposing teams this year and ranks 27th in DVP against PFs. They also have the fourth worst rebounding rate in the NBA, and may be without their best rebounder, Nerlens Noel, in this one. If Noel sits again, Randle will matchup with Jerami Grant whose rebounding rate of 9.8 shys in comparison to Randle’s 15.8. Randle also outweighs Grant by nearly 50 pounds and should be able to bully him down low. Randle isn’t a cash game play due to his volatility, but he is in a prime spot for production in this matchup.
- Kris Humphries @ Cleveland (4100) - It’s not Wednesday, but I think it may still be hump day. I expected K-Hump to see big minutes in the Wizards last game with Nene out, but it was instead Jared Dudley who saw 30 unproductive minutes as Washington elected to go small ball. I expect they’ll need to play a bigger lineup against Cleveland, because Kevin Love would abuse Dudley on the glass. Monitor the news because if Humphries starts he is a viable punt play. If Dudley starts again Humphries isn’t an option. Dudley starting would also boost the value of Kevin Love, who will likely be a very popular option regardless.
Center:
- Marc Gasol @ New Orleans (7100) - Z-Bo is back, but Brandan Wright remains sidelined, which means Gasol will continue to see minutes in the high 30s. He’s averaging 36.55 over his past ten games, and should have no problem reaching that number in this matchup against New Orleans. At only $7,100, he should easily reach value tonight.
- Zaza Pachulia @ Portland (6000) - Pachulia continues to be a double-double machine for the Mavs, with six in his last seven games. If you take out the outlier in which he was in foul trouble the whole game, Pachulia is averaging 36.17 DK PPG over his past six. He draws a matchup against the Trailblazers tonight, who are 24th in DVP against centers and allowed DeAndre Jordan to put up 18 points and 24 rebounds on them last night. Pachulia is a safe option in cash games tonight. Don’t be fooled by the one dud in his game logs, everyone runs into foul trouble from time to time.
- Gorgui Dieng vs Orlando (4300) - For whatever reason, Coach Sam Mitchell has been limiting the minutes of Karl-Anthony Towns recently, which has in turn led to the Gorgeous Dong topping 20 minutes in seven straight games and averaging 26.75 MPG over his past four. Dieng has responded by averaging 27.96 DK PPG over his past six and topping 30 three times in that span. Dieng has a higher rebounding rate than any player on the Magic, and most of his value has come from his work on the glass, as he’s averaging 9.67 boards over his past three. Assuming he continues to see steady minutes off the bench, he should be a nice source of value tonight.
- Alex Len @ Brooklyn (3200) - Len has started two games for the Suns this year with Tyson Chandler out of the lineup. He scored 18+ DK points in both, but saw much more run in his most recent start. It appears he’ll see extended time in games Chandler misses and Phoenix can’t play small ball. This matchup with the Nets presents one such matchup, as Len will be called on to defend Brook Lopez. In the 18 games Len saw 25+ minutes last season he averaged 29.08 DK PPG. He has that type of upside in this matchup against the Nets if he draws another start for Phoenix.