Top Week Sixteen Wide Receivers
@Jagibbs_23 December 26
- Antonio Brown @ Baltimore (9300) - Antonio is the mega chalk this week. Like even chalkier than David Johnson. He was 43.30% owned in FanDuel tournaments on Thursday, but for good reason. Baltimore has a funnel defense, ranking 29th in DVOA vs pass and ninth vs run. They’ve given up the most fantasy points to opposing WRs. Antonio has a terrific individual matchup as well, with the second highest PFF Matchup Advantage (+48) against struggling and banged up CB Jimmy Smith. Brown has been ridiculously good with Big Ben healthy this year too, averaging 10 catches, 135 yards, and a score when Roethlisberger has played the majority of the game this season. He’s in fade at your own risk territory this week, as he’s viable in both cash and GPPs.
- Eric Decker vs New England (6500) - Brandon Marshall’s lowest DK point total this year? Week seven against New England. Guess who saw 12 targets that game? Eric Decker. New England is notoroius for gameplanning to take out the opposing team’s number one option, as evidenced by DVOA this year, where they’re ranked fifth vs number one WRs and 14th vs number twos. It’s week 16 and Decker still has yet to have a game this year in which he hasn’t topped 80 yards or scored a TD. Want another fun Eric Decker stat? He’s first in the NFL in red-zone targets this season! He doesn’t have elite upside, but he has a very safe floor and has a chance to score two TDs on any given week with his red-zone usage and the extra attention Marshall will get. To put the cherry on top, Decker was only 3.40% owned on Thursday. He’s cash and GPP viable, and one of my favorite players on the slate in what should be a shootout in which the Jets will likely be trailing. Get him in those lineups!
- Jeremy Maclin vs Cleveland (6000) - The price is finally up to $6k, but I think that is still too low for Maclin the way Kansas City is utilizing him recently. Since his week 12 breakout vs the Bills, Maclin is averaging 10 targets per game and has four of his six scores, which has been boosted by him accounting for 80% of Kansas City’s red-zone targets over that span. The Browns are ranked 28th in pass DVOA and have allowed the fourth most fantasy points allowed to opposing WRs this year. I don’t think I’ll be locking in JMac in cash games because of the potential this turns into a blowout and KC doesn’t need to be aggressive, but he is one of my favorite GPP plays. He had fairly high ownership on Thursday, (14.20%) but not high enough for me to consider fading him. Also, keep an eye on the weather if you’re planning on rostering Maclin, because it’s reported that winds could reach up to 25 mph on Sunday.
- Golden Tate vs San Francisco (5800) - I’ve never been a fan of Tate while Megatron is healthy, but I do not believe he is anywhere close to healthy right now. Calvin just doesn’t look right out there and I believe he is being used more as a decoy than anything else, which is evidenced by their recent usage. Over their last three games, Tate has out-targeted Calvin Johnson 26-14. So who am I looking at to attack this 25th ranked pass DVOA Niners defense? I’m going with the guy with at least six catches in five straight games and five TDs over that span. Tate has double digit targets in three of his past five game and he's sixth in DK points since Week 10. I was worried coming into the week that he’d be very highly owned following back to back two TD games, but he was only 11.20% in the Thursday night games. He’s a terrific cash game option, and isn’t a bad tournament option either, although I prefer Bryant, Aiken, and Floyd in GPPs.
- Martavis Bryant @ Baltimore (5600) - Martavis Bryant is criminally underpriced in this matchup. He is fifth in fantasy points among active WRs on this slate, yet is priced as the 23rd most expensive WR. What? Despite that, Antonio Brown was much higher owned this week, with Martavis coming in at 17.70% owned. We’ve already discussed how bad Baltimore is against the pass, but this game sets up especially well for Martavis. Baltimore is ranked 14th in DVOA vs #1 WRs and 26th vs #2s. All in all, Martavis is my favorite play at any position this week. As of now, I plan on having 100% exposure, which I almost never commit to one player unless they’re my boy David Johnson :).
- Kamar Aiken vs Pittsburgh (5400) - Some may still be under the illusion that Kamar Aiken is a below average NFL talent that just benefits from ridiculous volume. PFF would disagree with you, as they have Aiken graded out as the 15th best wideout among healthy WRs. Regardless of what side of the fence you fall on regarding Aiken’s actual talent, the bottom line is he continues to produce. Over the past six weeks, Aiken has averaged over 10 targets per game, which has led to very steady production (double digit DK points in every game since week eight). Not only has he played well, but Aiken has a fantastic matchup and gamescript working in his favor this week. The Steelers are a funnel defense, as they have allowed the third most receiving yards, but just the fifth fewest rushing yards. That works well for the Ravens, who have ranked first in pass plays and 22nd in rushing plays since their week nine bye. Even if they didn’t want to go pass-heavy for some reason, they will likely be forced to, as they are ten point underdogs. Everything is pointing towards a big performance in this game, and I love stacking him with Pittsburgh players in hope of a shootout. To make this play even more enticing, Aiken was only 5.10% owned on the Thursday slate. He’s my second favorite WR dollar for dollar on the slate, which I never thought I’d type about Kamar Aiken.
- Michael Floyd vs Green Bay (4900) - Over the past three weeks, Floyd has led the team in targets, with 29 as opposed to Fitz and Brown’s 22 each. With top CB Sam Shields doubtful, the Packers will be rolling out two CBs as their perimeter CBs. Amari Cooper was targeted nine times last week with Shields out and the result was six catches for 120 yards and two TDs. This game is expected to shootout, with the Cardinals projected to score 27 points. I think a lot of that will come from David Johnson, but Floyd makes for a very nice leverage play off of Johnson in tournaments, especially considering he was only 4.6% owned Thursday after burning many people last week.
Others I like that didn’t quite make the cut as one of my elite options:
DeAndre Hopkins @ Tennessee (8400)
Allen Robinson @ New Orleans (7500)
Mike Evans vs Chicago (7300)
Brandin Cooks vs Jacksonville (5900)
Emmanuel Sanders vs Cincinnati (5800)
T.Y. Hilton @ Miami (5800)
Tyler Lockett vs St. Louis (4500)
Rueben Randle @ Minnesota (3500)