#MCM- Aaron Nola, SP, Philadelphia Phillies
@Hoover__26 June 6
When a player is taken in the first round, of any sport, the pressure on them to live up to the expectations is astronomical. So many of them have turned out to be over-hyped, and fail to realize the massive potential they are advertised to have. Others are unable to make the transition to the pros, and falter against the stronger competition. This pressure is there in any sport, but baseball may be the toughest for a prospect taken early in the massive draft. So many of the players come right out of high school, and very few have legitimate bodies of work to base their hype on. In addition to that, a pitcher might be the most difficult position in the most stressful sport to be a first round pick in. The list of busts at that position is too long to list, guys like Mark Appel, Scott Elarton, Matt Bush, and so many more. So, with all of this in mind, a pitcher who gets taken in the first round of the MLB draft, spends a few years rising through the minors, and instantly makes a difference in the bigs when he gets there, is seriously rare. So many things can go wrong, that it becomes less of a prototypical career arc and more of an outlier in the realm of top prospects. This week’s #MCM, Aaron Nola, has ridden that fabled career arc that is unrealistically expected of every early pick, and he hasn’t even come close to the peak yet.
Nola was the 7th pick in the 2014 MLB draft to the Phillies, after refusing to sign with the Pirates as a 22nd round pick in 2011. He tossed a solid 13 starts last year (his first in the bigs), and looked like the kind of player that would get better in his next season. While fantasy drafters took notice of his potential, taking him 227th overall on average in espn.com drafts, very few of them knew just how much better he would be. He is currently in the top 10 in fantasy points scored (espn.com), having only one game of less than 15 fantasy points (his first of the year). He has been the fantasy steal of the year by far, and shows no signs of having any weakness that would keep him from continuing his success.
Nola’s curveball, when thrown down in the zone, is practically unhittable. According to ESPN’s hot zones, the highest batting average against Nola’s curve by zones (low in the strike zone, the occasional curves that hang high are always hit hard) is .222, then .105 is the next best, and the rest are .000. His advanced stats are also exceptional, more than comparable to elite lefties like Chris Sale and Madison Bumgarner. Nola’s strikeouts per 9 innings in his two seasons is equal to Bumgarner’s career number, and greater than Sale’s number this year (Nola is striking out 9.8 per 9 innings this season). Bumgarner and Sale, in both of their careers combined, have only had one season in which they walked less players per 9 innings than Nola has this year. Nola is also currently giving up only 0.1 home runs per 9 innings more than the other two, and has an adjusted ERA (ERA+) of 156, better than Sale’s ERA+ this season (all advanced stats courtesy of baseball-reference.com). In fact, if you put Nola’s MLB career ERA+ on the active list (the active list requires 1000 innings pitched, Nola only has 155.2), he would tie for second with Adam Wainwright. So if Nola’s weakness isn’t his secondary pitches, or his control, or his strikeout ability, or giving up big hits, or relying on fielders (he has a better Fielding Independent Pitching rating than Bumgarner or Sale), then what is it? Is there anything that can keep Nola from becoming one of the best in the game? All I know is, he is already one of the best fantasy pitchers in the league, and the only one in the top 12 where you can still pick him up off waivers in over 10% of leagues.
This week’s #MCM is one of the best young pitchers in the game, and right now it looks like the sky might be the limit. He has everything he needs to maintain his numbers, and his dominance, and I don’t see anything that tells me he won’t continue to ride this legendary arc.
Nola was the 7th pick in the 2014 MLB draft to the Phillies, after refusing to sign with the Pirates as a 22nd round pick in 2011. He tossed a solid 13 starts last year (his first in the bigs), and looked like the kind of player that would get better in his next season. While fantasy drafters took notice of his potential, taking him 227th overall on average in espn.com drafts, very few of them knew just how much better he would be. He is currently in the top 10 in fantasy points scored (espn.com), having only one game of less than 15 fantasy points (his first of the year). He has been the fantasy steal of the year by far, and shows no signs of having any weakness that would keep him from continuing his success.
Nola’s curveball, when thrown down in the zone, is practically unhittable. According to ESPN’s hot zones, the highest batting average against Nola’s curve by zones (low in the strike zone, the occasional curves that hang high are always hit hard) is .222, then .105 is the next best, and the rest are .000. His advanced stats are also exceptional, more than comparable to elite lefties like Chris Sale and Madison Bumgarner. Nola’s strikeouts per 9 innings in his two seasons is equal to Bumgarner’s career number, and greater than Sale’s number this year (Nola is striking out 9.8 per 9 innings this season). Bumgarner and Sale, in both of their careers combined, have only had one season in which they walked less players per 9 innings than Nola has this year. Nola is also currently giving up only 0.1 home runs per 9 innings more than the other two, and has an adjusted ERA (ERA+) of 156, better than Sale’s ERA+ this season (all advanced stats courtesy of baseball-reference.com). In fact, if you put Nola’s MLB career ERA+ on the active list (the active list requires 1000 innings pitched, Nola only has 155.2), he would tie for second with Adam Wainwright. So if Nola’s weakness isn’t his secondary pitches, or his control, or his strikeout ability, or giving up big hits, or relying on fielders (he has a better Fielding Independent Pitching rating than Bumgarner or Sale), then what is it? Is there anything that can keep Nola from becoming one of the best in the game? All I know is, he is already one of the best fantasy pitchers in the league, and the only one in the top 12 where you can still pick him up off waivers in over 10% of leagues.
This week’s #MCM is one of the best young pitchers in the game, and right now it looks like the sky might be the limit. He has everything he needs to maintain his numbers, and his dominance, and I don’t see anything that tells me he won’t continue to ride this legendary arc.