Top Week Thirteen Wide Recievers
@Jagibbs_23 December 5
Top Plays: My core plays of the slate. If they make this list, they’ve viable in cash and GPPs.
Alshon Jeffery vs San Francisco (6900) - Here are Jeffery's target totals in games he wasn't playing hurt and used as a decoy: 11, 11, 16, 16, and 11. His volume in the Bears offense gives him one of the safest floors you can get at WR, and Alshon has the talent (PFF WR Grade of 95, the third highest among all WRs) to turn those huge target totals into huge production. San Fran has been horrible against the pass this year (31st in DVOA vs the pass) and they have not traveled well this year, allowing 35.2 points per game to opposing teams in their road games. Alshon will likely be chalky, he was owned by 26.10% in the FanDuel $1 Mini Dive, but the opportunity, price, and matchup are too good to pass up on. He's the first WR I'm locking into my cash games and is worth a look in GPPs as well, where you can cut the chalk by pairing him with lower owned QBs such as Jay Cutler, Matt Ryan, or Marcus Mariota.
Odell Beckham Jr. vs NYJ (8900) - That's now four straight 100 yard games for OBJ, who is back to making ridiculous TD catches and dominating opposing CBs on a weekly basis. Over his past four games, he has averaged 30 DK PPG, and I don't see him slowing down against a Revis-less Jets secondary. With or without Revis, New York has struggled against the pass during the past six games, allowing a combined 15:3 TD-to-INT ratio and four 300+ yard passing performances during that stretch. Along with the huge ceiling Beckham provides, he has averaged 14 targets per game in his past four, and could see more than that this week against a weak Jets secondary, which provides him with a very safe floor. The Giants have almost no chance of running the ball successfully against this stout Jets run defense, and I expect them to turn to the air early and often. There is also a revenge narrative of sorts, as Antonio Cromartie called Beckham a one-year wonder this offseason. Beckham will spend a lot of time being covered by Antonio Cromartie (PFF Grade of 42) and would love to prove him wrong. OBJ has a PFF matchup advantage of +48, which is the third-highest on the slate this week. He's not going overlooked at 12.30% in the FanDuel $1 Mini Drive, but his unique combination of high floor and ceiling make him a very appealing option in all formats this weekend.
A.J. Green @ Cleveland (7600) - A.J. is coming off a two-score game against the Rams despite seeing shadow coverage from Janoris Jenkins, who was previously considered one of the toughest matchups in football. A.J. also gets a boost in his projections this week, as he will finally not have to compete with Tyler Eifert for the Red Rifle's attention. This should lead to more targets, and more importantly - more red zone targets. A.J. has struggled against the Browns in the past, but Joe Haden will not suit this one up. Against a Cleveland defense ranked 29th in DVOA vs the pass, A.J. should have a huge game in this one and comes at a pretty significant discount to the other top WRs. His ownership in the FanDuel $1 Mini Drive was 13.30%, which is high but not chalky enough that I'd consider fading him. If you can't afford to spend up for Beckham, A.J. is a great option in cash games and GPPs.
Jeremy Maclin @ Oakland (5200) - As a KC fan, I was in a weird spot this past weekend. I was hoping Maclin would have another poor showing so I could get him cheap and low-owned this week in a much better matchup against Oakland, so it was bitter-sweet to watch him go nuts against the Bills previously lock-down exterior CBs. Maclin ripped apart the Bills secondary for 160 yards and a score on nine catches, and now draws an Oakland secondary allowing the ninth most yards to wide receivers. Even more encouraging for Maclin was the fact that Alex Smith was actually aggressively pushing the ball down the field, which would be a huge boost in JMac's value if it occurred with any regularity. The Raiders have some capable CBs, but the Chiefs line Maclin up all over the field (routes run: L 34% S 29% R 38%) so he’ll draw some Neiko Thorpe, who has a PFF grade of 54. The Raiders pass defense ranks 20th in DVOA, but if you look deeper,they struggle against WR1s specifically. Oakland has allowed the most yards to opposing number one WRs of any team other than KC, so this is literally the best matchup Maclin could ask for in that regard. His ownership was up this week, but 9.70% is still palatable. Give Maclin a look as a mid-priced option with upside in cash and GPPs this weekend.
Cash Game Plays: Players I’m targeting primarily in cash games whether that’s due to high floor, limited ceiling, or high ownership.
Jarvis Landry vs Baltimore (6700) - Landry's calling card is his ability to pile up receptions - only Julio Jones, Antonio Brown, Larry Fitzgerald, and DeAndre Hopkins have more receptions through 11 games. He's averaging 12 targets per game over his past four, and his consistent usage makes him a terrific cash game option due to his elevated floor. Baltimore is ranked 26th in DVOA vs pass and Landry should have no problem getting open this weekend. He was only 8.00% owned in the FanDuel $1 Mini Drive, despite having his best performance of the season (13 catches, 165 yards, 1 TD, 35.9 DK points). I don't expect him to replicate that type of production, as I doubt Ryan Tannehill is forced to pass 58 times again, but Landry will still get his looks and have a nice game here. He's a terrific cash game option in a plus matchup against the Ravens.
Eric Decker @ NYG (6300) - If you can't quite fit Landry into your cash games, Decker is a fine pivot down for $400 less. Since the Jets' Week 5 bye, Decker has actually seen more targets than Brandon Marshall, and Decker's Week 13 matchup is also better than Marshall's. Decker will line up against Giants slot CB Trevin Wade, whom Decker has five inches and 25 pounds on. Decker is averaging over 10 targets per game in his past four and has 80 yards or a TD in every game this year. His floor is extremely safe, and his matchup this week against the Giants (25th in DVOA vs pass) provides him with a solid ceiling as well. Decker was owned in only 7.60% on Thursday too, so he won't be super-chalky following Brandon Marshall's explosion last week. Let others chase points with Marshall being covered by Prince Amukamara. The sharp play is to pay down for Decker in a much better matchup.
Kamar Aiken @ Miami (4800) - Aiken proved last week that he can be a fantasy asset even with Matt "Pick-6" Schuab at the helm. Averaging 10.67 targets per game over his past three, Aiken has the highest floor/dollar of any WR on the board. Aiken will either draw shadow coverage of Brent Grimes, who has regularly been burned this month, (8-168-1 vs Sammy Watkins, 4-45-1 vs a not healthy Dez Bryant, and 9-131-2 vs Brandon Marshall) or he’ll be covered by Jamar Taylor who has a PFF CB grade of 38, good for fourth-worst in the NFL. Miami is ranked 27th in DVOA vs the pass and 32nd vs #1 WRs. He doesn't carry big upside, but he is a very safe investment in cash games.
GPP Only Plays: Contrarian plays I think will be sneaky sources of value but aren’t safe enough for cash games.
Julio Jones @ Tampa Bay (9000) - Per Evan Silva, "In his three meetings with Lovie Smith's Bucs defense, Julio has gone 12-162-1, 9-161-2, and 8-119. He will spend a lot of time matched up with Jude Adjei-Barimah, who has a PFF grade of 47. Julio has a PFF matchup advantage of +50, the second highest on the board. Many were burned by Julio last week when he had a good matchup on paper against Xavier Rhodes. That led to a 10.70% ownership in the FanDuel $1 Mini Drive and a $400 dip in price, which provides us with an opportunity to jump on him in tournaments. I love Ryan-Julio stacks as a way to be contrarian in tournaments. The Bucs have been unbelievably good against the run this year (2nd in DVOA vs run) instead forcing teams to beat them with the pass (24th in DVOA vs pass). I fully expect Ryan and Julio to take advantage of this funnel situation, and put up a big game against Tampa Bay's weak secondary. Julio is my favorite WR to target in tournaments this weekend.
T.Y. Hilton @ Pittsburgh (5700) - Despite dropping 27.5 on the Bucs last week, Hilton was only 8.70% owned on Thursday. I expect another big game from Hilton in this game, as he will be covered by Antwon Blake most of the day, who sports PFF’s second worst CB grade (32). Hilton has a PFF matchup advantage grade of +53, the highest on the board this week. Pittsburgh has improved against the pass this year, but they're still below average, ranking 19th in DVOA vs the pass and 24th vs #1 WRs. Hilton has been too volatile for me to trust him in cash games, but I love to target him at this price point in GPPs.
Martavis Bryant vs Indianapolis (5600) - With Antonio Brown covered by Vontae Davis, Bryant will draw the coverage of Greg Toler, who grades out as the sixth worst CB in the NFL with a PFF grade of 38. Bryant’s matchup vs Toler gives him the fourth best PFF matchup advantage grade on the slate, a +41. Bryant makes for a nice contrarian way to get exposure to the Pittsburgh offense, as his ownership of 7.70% pales in comparison to De'Angelo Williams (24.5%) and Antonio Brown (20.6%). We all know the huge upside that Bryant brings, and in a high scoring game against Indy, he is worth a look in GPPs at this price.
DeVante Parker vs Baltimore (3300) - While I don't expect Tannehill to chuck it 58 times again, I still expect Parker to be productive in this game. He was in on 81% of Miami's offensive snaps last week, which resulted in 80 yards and a score on 10 targets. Parker is a very talented athlete (6-foot-3, 209 and ran a 4.45 forty at the Combine) and the Dolphins invested the 14th overall pick on him. With their season over and Rishard Matthews out, I expect they're going to continue to try to get Parker involved. Parker runs 41% of his routes from the left and 43% from the right, so he’ll spend a decent amount of time against Jimmy Smith, who has a PFF grade of 46. The Ravens are 26th in DVOA vs the pass, and I expect Parker to take advantage of their soft coverage. He was only 3.20% owned this Thursday, and I love him in GPPs if his ownership is going to be that low again.
Allen Robinson @ Tennessee (7300) - Allen Hurns is averaging seven targets per game over his past eight games, but will miss this one with a concussion, opening up more opportunities in the passing game for Robinson and Julius Thomas. Robinson has topped 100 yards or scored a TD in seven straight games, and draws a matchup against a Titans defense he gashed for five catches and 113 yards in Week 11, and allowed Amari Cooper to get 115 yards on seven catches last week. Tennessee is also ranked 32nd vs the deep ball according to Football Outsiders. Robinson is one of the most explosive big-play WRs in the NFL, and has the potential to break one of his 12+ targets for a long TD in this game. I prefer to pay down for Alshon or Landry in cash, but A-Rob is a nice option in GPPs.
Brandon LaFell vs Philadelphia (4800) - LaFell has not been good this year, but without Julian Edelman, Gronk, or Dion Lewis, there aren't many healthy options left for Brady to throw to. LaFell will be covered by Eric Rowe (PFF grade of 48) and Byron Maxwell (PFF grade of 41). In case you don't remember, Rowe was the CB who was picked on by Calvin Johnson on Thanksgiving to the tune of eight catches, 93 yards, and three TDs. The Eagles are 31st in DVOA vs #1 WRs, and have given up 10 passing TDs the past two weeks to Jameis Winston and Matt Stafford. Tom Brady should have a field day, and LaFell is his most likely weapon to post big numbers with Amendola not 100%. He's cheap and was only 9.2% owned Thursday, so I have no hesitation rolling with him in tournaments this weekend.
Alshon Jeffery vs San Francisco (6900) - Here are Jeffery's target totals in games he wasn't playing hurt and used as a decoy: 11, 11, 16, 16, and 11. His volume in the Bears offense gives him one of the safest floors you can get at WR, and Alshon has the talent (PFF WR Grade of 95, the third highest among all WRs) to turn those huge target totals into huge production. San Fran has been horrible against the pass this year (31st in DVOA vs the pass) and they have not traveled well this year, allowing 35.2 points per game to opposing teams in their road games. Alshon will likely be chalky, he was owned by 26.10% in the FanDuel $1 Mini Dive, but the opportunity, price, and matchup are too good to pass up on. He's the first WR I'm locking into my cash games and is worth a look in GPPs as well, where you can cut the chalk by pairing him with lower owned QBs such as Jay Cutler, Matt Ryan, or Marcus Mariota.
Odell Beckham Jr. vs NYJ (8900) - That's now four straight 100 yard games for OBJ, who is back to making ridiculous TD catches and dominating opposing CBs on a weekly basis. Over his past four games, he has averaged 30 DK PPG, and I don't see him slowing down against a Revis-less Jets secondary. With or without Revis, New York has struggled against the pass during the past six games, allowing a combined 15:3 TD-to-INT ratio and four 300+ yard passing performances during that stretch. Along with the huge ceiling Beckham provides, he has averaged 14 targets per game in his past four, and could see more than that this week against a weak Jets secondary, which provides him with a very safe floor. The Giants have almost no chance of running the ball successfully against this stout Jets run defense, and I expect them to turn to the air early and often. There is also a revenge narrative of sorts, as Antonio Cromartie called Beckham a one-year wonder this offseason. Beckham will spend a lot of time being covered by Antonio Cromartie (PFF Grade of 42) and would love to prove him wrong. OBJ has a PFF matchup advantage of +48, which is the third-highest on the slate this week. He's not going overlooked at 12.30% in the FanDuel $1 Mini Drive, but his unique combination of high floor and ceiling make him a very appealing option in all formats this weekend.
A.J. Green @ Cleveland (7600) - A.J. is coming off a two-score game against the Rams despite seeing shadow coverage from Janoris Jenkins, who was previously considered one of the toughest matchups in football. A.J. also gets a boost in his projections this week, as he will finally not have to compete with Tyler Eifert for the Red Rifle's attention. This should lead to more targets, and more importantly - more red zone targets. A.J. has struggled against the Browns in the past, but Joe Haden will not suit this one up. Against a Cleveland defense ranked 29th in DVOA vs the pass, A.J. should have a huge game in this one and comes at a pretty significant discount to the other top WRs. His ownership in the FanDuel $1 Mini Drive was 13.30%, which is high but not chalky enough that I'd consider fading him. If you can't afford to spend up for Beckham, A.J. is a great option in cash games and GPPs.
Jeremy Maclin @ Oakland (5200) - As a KC fan, I was in a weird spot this past weekend. I was hoping Maclin would have another poor showing so I could get him cheap and low-owned this week in a much better matchup against Oakland, so it was bitter-sweet to watch him go nuts against the Bills previously lock-down exterior CBs. Maclin ripped apart the Bills secondary for 160 yards and a score on nine catches, and now draws an Oakland secondary allowing the ninth most yards to wide receivers. Even more encouraging for Maclin was the fact that Alex Smith was actually aggressively pushing the ball down the field, which would be a huge boost in JMac's value if it occurred with any regularity. The Raiders have some capable CBs, but the Chiefs line Maclin up all over the field (routes run: L 34% S 29% R 38%) so he’ll draw some Neiko Thorpe, who has a PFF grade of 54. The Raiders pass defense ranks 20th in DVOA, but if you look deeper,they struggle against WR1s specifically. Oakland has allowed the most yards to opposing number one WRs of any team other than KC, so this is literally the best matchup Maclin could ask for in that regard. His ownership was up this week, but 9.70% is still palatable. Give Maclin a look as a mid-priced option with upside in cash and GPPs this weekend.
Cash Game Plays: Players I’m targeting primarily in cash games whether that’s due to high floor, limited ceiling, or high ownership.
Jarvis Landry vs Baltimore (6700) - Landry's calling card is his ability to pile up receptions - only Julio Jones, Antonio Brown, Larry Fitzgerald, and DeAndre Hopkins have more receptions through 11 games. He's averaging 12 targets per game over his past four, and his consistent usage makes him a terrific cash game option due to his elevated floor. Baltimore is ranked 26th in DVOA vs pass and Landry should have no problem getting open this weekend. He was only 8.00% owned in the FanDuel $1 Mini Drive, despite having his best performance of the season (13 catches, 165 yards, 1 TD, 35.9 DK points). I don't expect him to replicate that type of production, as I doubt Ryan Tannehill is forced to pass 58 times again, but Landry will still get his looks and have a nice game here. He's a terrific cash game option in a plus matchup against the Ravens.
Eric Decker @ NYG (6300) - If you can't quite fit Landry into your cash games, Decker is a fine pivot down for $400 less. Since the Jets' Week 5 bye, Decker has actually seen more targets than Brandon Marshall, and Decker's Week 13 matchup is also better than Marshall's. Decker will line up against Giants slot CB Trevin Wade, whom Decker has five inches and 25 pounds on. Decker is averaging over 10 targets per game in his past four and has 80 yards or a TD in every game this year. His floor is extremely safe, and his matchup this week against the Giants (25th in DVOA vs pass) provides him with a solid ceiling as well. Decker was owned in only 7.60% on Thursday too, so he won't be super-chalky following Brandon Marshall's explosion last week. Let others chase points with Marshall being covered by Prince Amukamara. The sharp play is to pay down for Decker in a much better matchup.
Kamar Aiken @ Miami (4800) - Aiken proved last week that he can be a fantasy asset even with Matt "Pick-6" Schuab at the helm. Averaging 10.67 targets per game over his past three, Aiken has the highest floor/dollar of any WR on the board. Aiken will either draw shadow coverage of Brent Grimes, who has regularly been burned this month, (8-168-1 vs Sammy Watkins, 4-45-1 vs a not healthy Dez Bryant, and 9-131-2 vs Brandon Marshall) or he’ll be covered by Jamar Taylor who has a PFF CB grade of 38, good for fourth-worst in the NFL. Miami is ranked 27th in DVOA vs the pass and 32nd vs #1 WRs. He doesn't carry big upside, but he is a very safe investment in cash games.
GPP Only Plays: Contrarian plays I think will be sneaky sources of value but aren’t safe enough for cash games.
Julio Jones @ Tampa Bay (9000) - Per Evan Silva, "In his three meetings with Lovie Smith's Bucs defense, Julio has gone 12-162-1, 9-161-2, and 8-119. He will spend a lot of time matched up with Jude Adjei-Barimah, who has a PFF grade of 47. Julio has a PFF matchup advantage of +50, the second highest on the board. Many were burned by Julio last week when he had a good matchup on paper against Xavier Rhodes. That led to a 10.70% ownership in the FanDuel $1 Mini Drive and a $400 dip in price, which provides us with an opportunity to jump on him in tournaments. I love Ryan-Julio stacks as a way to be contrarian in tournaments. The Bucs have been unbelievably good against the run this year (2nd in DVOA vs run) instead forcing teams to beat them with the pass (24th in DVOA vs pass). I fully expect Ryan and Julio to take advantage of this funnel situation, and put up a big game against Tampa Bay's weak secondary. Julio is my favorite WR to target in tournaments this weekend.
T.Y. Hilton @ Pittsburgh (5700) - Despite dropping 27.5 on the Bucs last week, Hilton was only 8.70% owned on Thursday. I expect another big game from Hilton in this game, as he will be covered by Antwon Blake most of the day, who sports PFF’s second worst CB grade (32). Hilton has a PFF matchup advantage grade of +53, the highest on the board this week. Pittsburgh has improved against the pass this year, but they're still below average, ranking 19th in DVOA vs the pass and 24th vs #1 WRs. Hilton has been too volatile for me to trust him in cash games, but I love to target him at this price point in GPPs.
Martavis Bryant vs Indianapolis (5600) - With Antonio Brown covered by Vontae Davis, Bryant will draw the coverage of Greg Toler, who grades out as the sixth worst CB in the NFL with a PFF grade of 38. Bryant’s matchup vs Toler gives him the fourth best PFF matchup advantage grade on the slate, a +41. Bryant makes for a nice contrarian way to get exposure to the Pittsburgh offense, as his ownership of 7.70% pales in comparison to De'Angelo Williams (24.5%) and Antonio Brown (20.6%). We all know the huge upside that Bryant brings, and in a high scoring game against Indy, he is worth a look in GPPs at this price.
DeVante Parker vs Baltimore (3300) - While I don't expect Tannehill to chuck it 58 times again, I still expect Parker to be productive in this game. He was in on 81% of Miami's offensive snaps last week, which resulted in 80 yards and a score on 10 targets. Parker is a very talented athlete (6-foot-3, 209 and ran a 4.45 forty at the Combine) and the Dolphins invested the 14th overall pick on him. With their season over and Rishard Matthews out, I expect they're going to continue to try to get Parker involved. Parker runs 41% of his routes from the left and 43% from the right, so he’ll spend a decent amount of time against Jimmy Smith, who has a PFF grade of 46. The Ravens are 26th in DVOA vs the pass, and I expect Parker to take advantage of their soft coverage. He was only 3.20% owned this Thursday, and I love him in GPPs if his ownership is going to be that low again.
Allen Robinson @ Tennessee (7300) - Allen Hurns is averaging seven targets per game over his past eight games, but will miss this one with a concussion, opening up more opportunities in the passing game for Robinson and Julius Thomas. Robinson has topped 100 yards or scored a TD in seven straight games, and draws a matchup against a Titans defense he gashed for five catches and 113 yards in Week 11, and allowed Amari Cooper to get 115 yards on seven catches last week. Tennessee is also ranked 32nd vs the deep ball according to Football Outsiders. Robinson is one of the most explosive big-play WRs in the NFL, and has the potential to break one of his 12+ targets for a long TD in this game. I prefer to pay down for Alshon or Landry in cash, but A-Rob is a nice option in GPPs.
Brandon LaFell vs Philadelphia (4800) - LaFell has not been good this year, but without Julian Edelman, Gronk, or Dion Lewis, there aren't many healthy options left for Brady to throw to. LaFell will be covered by Eric Rowe (PFF grade of 48) and Byron Maxwell (PFF grade of 41). In case you don't remember, Rowe was the CB who was picked on by Calvin Johnson on Thanksgiving to the tune of eight catches, 93 yards, and three TDs. The Eagles are 31st in DVOA vs #1 WRs, and have given up 10 passing TDs the past two weeks to Jameis Winston and Matt Stafford. Tom Brady should have a field day, and LaFell is his most likely weapon to post big numbers with Amendola not 100%. He's cheap and was only 9.2% owned Thursday, so I have no hesitation rolling with him in tournaments this weekend.