Breaking Down Tournament Lineup Building
@Jagibbs_23 September 29
Underground readers, I get many questions each week asking for help on the methodology behind building successful DFS tournament lineups, so instead of just redirecting you to our DFS Primer, (Which is a must read if you haven't yet read it) I decided to go a bit further and give you a look at the method behind the madness that is GPP lineup construction. If you haven't been able to read my stuff before now, here is a look at my success through three weeks in DFS, just to provide a little credibility:
- Back to back weeks with multiple DK lineups over 200.
- 8 of 9 lineups over 200 in Week 3.
- Over $1,000 in profit already this season.
nhis was my top scoring lineup on DK with 238.5 points. On a super high-scoring week, that was only good for 393rd place out of 76.6 thousand people, but on most weeks 230+ is a score that is going to make you a good chunk of cash. This lineup serves as a terrific example of creating a maximum upside GPP lineup.
First off, you'll notice that other than Seattle D/ST, which was a pretty obvious play, every player was under 12% owned. Six of the nine players were owned by six percent or less. This exemplifies the importance of being contrarian in tournaments. One of the chalk plays at WR this week was Julian Edelman. It made sense, he had a good matchup and had been a beast as of late. He was priced conservatively compared to his production, and many people were on him. You had to know going into week three that Edelman was going to be a popular choice. I could have went Edelman in this tournament lineup over similarly priced WR such as AJ Green, DeAndre Hopkins, or Mike Evans. Instead, I went against the grain with those three WR, because I liked their prospects just as much as Edelman's this week, and I knew I would get them at much lower ownership. As you can see, I was right about their ownership percentages, and I lucked out that Edelman, who was owned in 34.5% of tournament lineups, only scored 16.5.
The importance of differentiating yourself from the crowd is this: If I had Edelman and he would have went off for 34 points as he did in week two, it really wouldn't have helped me all that much. Obviously points are points, and you'll take them in any form you can get them. But while he is getting me 34 points, he is also getting 34 points for the 26,449 other people who rostered him (34.5% of the 76,666 entries). When AJ Green went off for 47.7 points on the other hand, it really set me apart from the competition because he was only owned 4,293 of the 76.6 thousand entries.
While this lineup is an excellent example of being contrarian, it also demonstrates another important tournament tactic: Stacking. I went with the most well-known stack out there, QB to WR. I loved the matchup for both Dalton and Green, and knew their ownership levels would be low, making it my favorite tournament stack of the week. Putting Dalton and Green together really took this lineup over the top as I got points for both players every time Dalton threw to Green. The 80 yard TD to Green in the fourth quarter totaled 22.2 points for my lineup on one play!
Another important thing to take away from this lineup construction is where my money was allocated. My four WR accounted for $30,200, or 60.4% of my salary. I am a firm believer that the way to go in GPPs is to pay up for WR, especially if you have elite WR in good matchups. I make exceptions occasionally if there's an expensive QB, RB, or TE I love that week, but generally speaking, I'm paying up for WR in tournaments and going for bargains at other positions.
Also, note that the lineup has a WR in the flex, and not a RB. This can be a tough adjustment for new DFS players, because you're used to playing RB at flex in standard leagues. In DFS, especially on DraftKings where you're awarded a full PPR, I suggest you go WR at the flex in tournaments. Loading up on wide receivers is risky because it is the most volatile position, but it also gives your lineup more upside. There have been seven individual performances of 150+ receiving yards this season already, while there has only been one game with over 150 rushing yards. I'm not saying you can't win a GPP with a RB at flex, but statistically speaking, you give yourself a better chance by playing four WR in tournament formats.
With all the methods behind lineup building out of the way, let's take a look at each individual player and how they fit into this lineup:
QB: Andy Dalton ($5,700) - Dalton was one of my favorite GPP plays this week for many reasons. One reason was he was ridiculously underpriced. In the midst of a breakout season, and ranked tenth in DK points, he was priced as the 23rd QB last week. I don't always pay down at QB in tournaments, but it definitely helps you fit in your top plays of the week like Julio in week three (or every week... I love him unconditionally)
Another reason I loved Dalton in GPPs was his matchup and gamescript. He was playing a Ravens defense that was terrible against the pass last year, and had just been torched by Derek Carr for 351 yards and 3 TD. The gamescript was in his favor as well, as the Bengals were underdogs in a game that was expected to be close and fairly high scoring. So we had a cheap, talented QB going against a team that specializes in stopping the run, in a game that was supposed to be a shootout in which his team was trailing. It was the perfect storm. When looking for a QB for your tournament lineups, look through the Vegas Odds and ask yourself, "Could this guy throw 4 TD this week?" If your QB is going against a tough pass defense in a game that they're heavy favorites in, the answer is likely no. For example, this weekend Carson Palmer is going against the Rams, who are ranked 3rd against the pass this year. The Cardinals are currently listed as seven point favorites, meaning there's a decent chance they get up big and run out the clock. Palmer would not be a wise GPP play this weekend, as his upside is limited in this matchup.
RB: Frank Gore ($4,500) - I'm so glad I get to feature Gore in this article, because he perfectly exemplifies the type of RB you want to target in tournament play. Below are the reasons he was an excellent tournament RB:
Price - Gore was extremely cheap after a disappointing start to the season. In tournaments you're looking for 5x value from each player to win a tournament. So, if your $50,000 team reached 5x value, it'd get 250 points, which is normally going to get you a lot of money. At only $4,500, Gore needed only 22.5 points to reach 5x value, a feat that was definitely attainable. Also, getting value at RB in tournaments makes it easier to fit in elite WR plays.
Recency Bias - Everyone was down on Gore and the Colts offense, as they were the biggest disappointments in the NFL through two weeks. This meant that you could get Gore at a very low ownership (4.7%), providing you with a terrific way to differentiate your lineups.
Matchup/Gamescript - Gore was going against a Titans defense that had just been run all over by Isaiah Crowell, and the Colts were favorites in this one. You generally want to target RB in games their team is projected to win, because if the game gets out of hand, they have the potential to put up huge numbers.
RB: Ryan Mathews ($3,300) - Mathews was nearly minimum price in a game where he was projected to receive nearly all the carries. Also, the DeMarco Murray news came out Sunday morning, meaning a large portion of lineups had already been made, resulting in the ability to roster a starting RB at minimum price and very low ownership.
WR: A.J. Green ($7,200) - Green was my favorite WR not named Julio this week. Here was my take on him in my Top Plays article:
Baltimore allowed the most points to opposing WR in 2014, and they currently rank 31st in 2015. A.J. Green has largely been a disappointment through two games, but he is extremely cheap at 7,200, and has the matchup and ability to win you a tournament this weekend. In his last three meetings with Baltimore, Green has 18 catches, 343 yards, and three TD. It’s also worth noting that while Baltimore struggles to defend elite WR, they have been excellent against TE and RB this year, meaning that Green should in theory get the majority of the looks this week for the first time in 2015. Week one belonged to Eifert, two was Gio’s and I’m calling a two TD performance from Green in week three.
There were so many things pointing towards taking Green this week in tournaments - matchup, price, recency bias, gamescript. He made for a perfect GPP contrarian play.
WR: DeAndre Hopkins ($7,400) - Nuk was going against one of the worst defenses in the NFL, and is one of the most electrifying big-play WR in the NFL. His combination of matchup, big-play ability, and recency bias made him a great contrarian GPP play for week three. He was a very popular pick in week two and disappointed many drafters. You can really find DFS goldmines if you have a short memory and find players like Green and Hopkins who the crowd won't play after being let down in previous weeks.
WR: Julio Jones ($9,000) - Jones was simply the premier play in week three in my mind. He had the highest ceiling of any player I projected, and was going to come at a fairly low ownership percentage with so many people on cheaper options like Julian Edelman and Brandon Marshall.
TE: Jared Cook ($2,800) - This pick obviously did not work out, and ultimately kept my lineup from being elite. I stand by the logic behind the pick though. The Steelers had been horrible against TE, the Rams were underdogs, and Cook was near minimum price. He had been much more productive in the previous two weeks in tougher matchups. It made sense on paper, it just didn't work out.
Generally speaking, when rostering TE for GPP, I try not to be too contrarian, because it's highly unlikely that any option not named Gronk is owned by over 20%. It's normally pretty straightforward, just look for the TE with the most upside at their price point based on matchup and game script.
FL: Mike Evans ($6,600) - When healthy, Mike Evans always makes for a good GPP play because of his excellent big-play potential and touchdown potential. In week three particularly, I liked Evans as a GPP dart because his price was deflated due to not scoring in week one or two. He also was guaranteed to have very a low ownership percentage due to recency bias.
D/ST: Seahawks ($3,400) - This was just an example of not needing to get cute at D/ST. The Seahawks had a matchup against a turnover prone team with their backup QB at the helm, at home, with Kam Chancellor making his return. The Seahawks also have an electric return game, and were going against a Bears team that has been horrible in punt coverage, giving Seattle D/ST even more upside in this matchup. When picking a defense for GPP lineups, I am solely looking for maximal upside, as the defenses are all so close in price, you're really not saving yourself that much money.
In conclusion, when building GPP lineups, try to find players who meet at least most of these criteria:
1. Negative Recency Bias (Leading to low ownership percentages)
2. Good matchup
3. Positive gamescript
It's really pretty simple, and it works. I hope you enjoyed reading my analysis, and this helps you start to pull in some big profits in tournaments. As always, if you have any questions, send them to @FF_Underground. Below are pictures of my two top scoring tournament lineups from DraftPot, where I made over $400 this weekend. If you haven't signed up yet, you really need to! Here is a link to sign up through Fantasy Football Underground:
https://www.draftpot.com/?promoCode=ffunderground
Sign up and get a 100% deposit bonus of up to $1,000.
First off, you'll notice that other than Seattle D/ST, which was a pretty obvious play, every player was under 12% owned. Six of the nine players were owned by six percent or less. This exemplifies the importance of being contrarian in tournaments. One of the chalk plays at WR this week was Julian Edelman. It made sense, he had a good matchup and had been a beast as of late. He was priced conservatively compared to his production, and many people were on him. You had to know going into week three that Edelman was going to be a popular choice. I could have went Edelman in this tournament lineup over similarly priced WR such as AJ Green, DeAndre Hopkins, or Mike Evans. Instead, I went against the grain with those three WR, because I liked their prospects just as much as Edelman's this week, and I knew I would get them at much lower ownership. As you can see, I was right about their ownership percentages, and I lucked out that Edelman, who was owned in 34.5% of tournament lineups, only scored 16.5.
The importance of differentiating yourself from the crowd is this: If I had Edelman and he would have went off for 34 points as he did in week two, it really wouldn't have helped me all that much. Obviously points are points, and you'll take them in any form you can get them. But while he is getting me 34 points, he is also getting 34 points for the 26,449 other people who rostered him (34.5% of the 76,666 entries). When AJ Green went off for 47.7 points on the other hand, it really set me apart from the competition because he was only owned 4,293 of the 76.6 thousand entries.
While this lineup is an excellent example of being contrarian, it also demonstrates another important tournament tactic: Stacking. I went with the most well-known stack out there, QB to WR. I loved the matchup for both Dalton and Green, and knew their ownership levels would be low, making it my favorite tournament stack of the week. Putting Dalton and Green together really took this lineup over the top as I got points for both players every time Dalton threw to Green. The 80 yard TD to Green in the fourth quarter totaled 22.2 points for my lineup on one play!
Another important thing to take away from this lineup construction is where my money was allocated. My four WR accounted for $30,200, or 60.4% of my salary. I am a firm believer that the way to go in GPPs is to pay up for WR, especially if you have elite WR in good matchups. I make exceptions occasionally if there's an expensive QB, RB, or TE I love that week, but generally speaking, I'm paying up for WR in tournaments and going for bargains at other positions.
Also, note that the lineup has a WR in the flex, and not a RB. This can be a tough adjustment for new DFS players, because you're used to playing RB at flex in standard leagues. In DFS, especially on DraftKings where you're awarded a full PPR, I suggest you go WR at the flex in tournaments. Loading up on wide receivers is risky because it is the most volatile position, but it also gives your lineup more upside. There have been seven individual performances of 150+ receiving yards this season already, while there has only been one game with over 150 rushing yards. I'm not saying you can't win a GPP with a RB at flex, but statistically speaking, you give yourself a better chance by playing four WR in tournament formats.
With all the methods behind lineup building out of the way, let's take a look at each individual player and how they fit into this lineup:
QB: Andy Dalton ($5,700) - Dalton was one of my favorite GPP plays this week for many reasons. One reason was he was ridiculously underpriced. In the midst of a breakout season, and ranked tenth in DK points, he was priced as the 23rd QB last week. I don't always pay down at QB in tournaments, but it definitely helps you fit in your top plays of the week like Julio in week three (or every week... I love him unconditionally)
Another reason I loved Dalton in GPPs was his matchup and gamescript. He was playing a Ravens defense that was terrible against the pass last year, and had just been torched by Derek Carr for 351 yards and 3 TD. The gamescript was in his favor as well, as the Bengals were underdogs in a game that was expected to be close and fairly high scoring. So we had a cheap, talented QB going against a team that specializes in stopping the run, in a game that was supposed to be a shootout in which his team was trailing. It was the perfect storm. When looking for a QB for your tournament lineups, look through the Vegas Odds and ask yourself, "Could this guy throw 4 TD this week?" If your QB is going against a tough pass defense in a game that they're heavy favorites in, the answer is likely no. For example, this weekend Carson Palmer is going against the Rams, who are ranked 3rd against the pass this year. The Cardinals are currently listed as seven point favorites, meaning there's a decent chance they get up big and run out the clock. Palmer would not be a wise GPP play this weekend, as his upside is limited in this matchup.
RB: Frank Gore ($4,500) - I'm so glad I get to feature Gore in this article, because he perfectly exemplifies the type of RB you want to target in tournament play. Below are the reasons he was an excellent tournament RB:
Price - Gore was extremely cheap after a disappointing start to the season. In tournaments you're looking for 5x value from each player to win a tournament. So, if your $50,000 team reached 5x value, it'd get 250 points, which is normally going to get you a lot of money. At only $4,500, Gore needed only 22.5 points to reach 5x value, a feat that was definitely attainable. Also, getting value at RB in tournaments makes it easier to fit in elite WR plays.
Recency Bias - Everyone was down on Gore and the Colts offense, as they were the biggest disappointments in the NFL through two weeks. This meant that you could get Gore at a very low ownership (4.7%), providing you with a terrific way to differentiate your lineups.
Matchup/Gamescript - Gore was going against a Titans defense that had just been run all over by Isaiah Crowell, and the Colts were favorites in this one. You generally want to target RB in games their team is projected to win, because if the game gets out of hand, they have the potential to put up huge numbers.
RB: Ryan Mathews ($3,300) - Mathews was nearly minimum price in a game where he was projected to receive nearly all the carries. Also, the DeMarco Murray news came out Sunday morning, meaning a large portion of lineups had already been made, resulting in the ability to roster a starting RB at minimum price and very low ownership.
WR: A.J. Green ($7,200) - Green was my favorite WR not named Julio this week. Here was my take on him in my Top Plays article:
Baltimore allowed the most points to opposing WR in 2014, and they currently rank 31st in 2015. A.J. Green has largely been a disappointment through two games, but he is extremely cheap at 7,200, and has the matchup and ability to win you a tournament this weekend. In his last three meetings with Baltimore, Green has 18 catches, 343 yards, and three TD. It’s also worth noting that while Baltimore struggles to defend elite WR, they have been excellent against TE and RB this year, meaning that Green should in theory get the majority of the looks this week for the first time in 2015. Week one belonged to Eifert, two was Gio’s and I’m calling a two TD performance from Green in week three.
There were so many things pointing towards taking Green this week in tournaments - matchup, price, recency bias, gamescript. He made for a perfect GPP contrarian play.
WR: DeAndre Hopkins ($7,400) - Nuk was going against one of the worst defenses in the NFL, and is one of the most electrifying big-play WR in the NFL. His combination of matchup, big-play ability, and recency bias made him a great contrarian GPP play for week three. He was a very popular pick in week two and disappointed many drafters. You can really find DFS goldmines if you have a short memory and find players like Green and Hopkins who the crowd won't play after being let down in previous weeks.
WR: Julio Jones ($9,000) - Jones was simply the premier play in week three in my mind. He had the highest ceiling of any player I projected, and was going to come at a fairly low ownership percentage with so many people on cheaper options like Julian Edelman and Brandon Marshall.
TE: Jared Cook ($2,800) - This pick obviously did not work out, and ultimately kept my lineup from being elite. I stand by the logic behind the pick though. The Steelers had been horrible against TE, the Rams were underdogs, and Cook was near minimum price. He had been much more productive in the previous two weeks in tougher matchups. It made sense on paper, it just didn't work out.
Generally speaking, when rostering TE for GPP, I try not to be too contrarian, because it's highly unlikely that any option not named Gronk is owned by over 20%. It's normally pretty straightforward, just look for the TE with the most upside at their price point based on matchup and game script.
FL: Mike Evans ($6,600) - When healthy, Mike Evans always makes for a good GPP play because of his excellent big-play potential and touchdown potential. In week three particularly, I liked Evans as a GPP dart because his price was deflated due to not scoring in week one or two. He also was guaranteed to have very a low ownership percentage due to recency bias.
D/ST: Seahawks ($3,400) - This was just an example of not needing to get cute at D/ST. The Seahawks had a matchup against a turnover prone team with their backup QB at the helm, at home, with Kam Chancellor making his return. The Seahawks also have an electric return game, and were going against a Bears team that has been horrible in punt coverage, giving Seattle D/ST even more upside in this matchup. When picking a defense for GPP lineups, I am solely looking for maximal upside, as the defenses are all so close in price, you're really not saving yourself that much money.
In conclusion, when building GPP lineups, try to find players who meet at least most of these criteria:
1. Negative Recency Bias (Leading to low ownership percentages)
2. Good matchup
3. Positive gamescript
It's really pretty simple, and it works. I hope you enjoyed reading my analysis, and this helps you start to pull in some big profits in tournaments. As always, if you have any questions, send them to @FF_Underground. Below are pictures of my two top scoring tournament lineups from DraftPot, where I made over $400 this weekend. If you haven't signed up yet, you really need to! Here is a link to sign up through Fantasy Football Underground:
https://www.draftpot.com/?promoCode=ffunderground
Sign up and get a 100% deposit bonus of up to $1,000.
DraftPot Lineup Breakdown
As you can tell, the pricing on DP allows for some very stacked lineups if you take advantage of it. Don't have the time to research two separate sites' pricing models? Lucky for you, you have me! I will provide an article each week highlighting the top value plays on the site. If you would have read my advice last week, you'd be richer than you are today! Don't miss out two weeks in a row, sign up now and make big money with me this weekend! https://www.draftpot.com/?promoCode=ffunderground