Buy Low/Sell High Week 7
-Hoover26 October20
So far this year, there has been more injuries, penalties, shocks and disappointments in fantasy football than I care to count. However, every fantasy football cloud has a possibly huge silver lining, as you are about to find out.
SELL HIGH
Mark Ingram
Mark Ingram, the Saints fifth year running back, has put up big numbers so far this year. He is the fifth ranked fantasy running back (per nfl.com scoring), and is a mainstay in pretty much every league. To be honest, I have no idea how he has managed to put up such high fantasy points this season. He averages only 3.5 yards per carry, and hasn’t been able to break a run of more than seventeen yards. Plus, he has to compete with Khiry Robinson and C.J. Spiller for carries and receptions. With Drew Brees looking like he might get back on track after New Orleans’ win over the formerly undefeated Falcons, Ingram might have even less opportunity. It’s not that I don’t think Ingram is a good talent, it’s that I don’t think he’s an RB1 like he has performed thus far. He’s way too TD dependent. So, if you are an Ingram owner with another viable running back option, I wouldn’t just dump the big back, but maybe see if someone is willing to give you RB1 value in return for him.
Jonathan Stewart
After four straight pathetic fantasy performances (and a bye week), Jonathan Stewart finally turned in the huge game we were waiting for. He had almost twenty-one fantasy points against the formidable Seahawks defense, and some people felt that their early drafting of Stewart was finally justified. Hold your horses. Stewart has ranked sixteenth in snap count for running backs so far (footballoutsiders.com), and his metric stats are extremely poor. You could make the argument that the Panthers upcoming schedule is one of the easiest in the NFL, and Stewart would take advantage of that. However, you would be forgetting that all four of his disappointing starts this year came against bottom tier defenses (footballoutsiders.com). So, Stewart’s huge game looks like it could be a flash in the pan. Stewart owners only have to hope that the flash was bright enough for someone to take the trade bait. Sell the injury-prone RB while you still can.
Doug Martin
Ah, Doug Martin. Half the time, he is fantasy gold. But as a Doug Martin owner, I can say from experience that the other half will include you ripping your hair out. Martin rushed for almost 1,500 yards in 2011, and hasn’t combined for that much since. Finally, after two long years of waiting (and hair pulling) it seems Martin has finally hit his stride. He’s the sixth ranked fantasy running back (nfl.com), and combined for over 54 points in weeks four and five (week six was a bye). With Jameis Winston struggling to find any sort of groove in the NFL, Martin might be looking at more carries going forward, which he could really use. He has ranked 37th in offensive snaps for running backs so far this year (footballoutsiders.com). Nevertheless, I am still not sold on this new “consistent” Doug Martin. And by consistent I mean he strung together two big games. Remember, he put up less than five fantasy points against Houston in week three. But, two big games in a row is consistent by Doug Martin standards. If you dive deeper into Martin’s stats, you will find that his ranking is not a true reflection of his value. Across the board, Martin’s metric stats are below average. His Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (value over average back in similar situations) is 2.2 percent below average. His Effective Yards (DVOA in a yard figure) is far below his total yards, which indicates that his numbers are inflated and do not equal his true value (stats courtesy of footballoutsiders.com). Martin’s stats tell a completely different tale than his fantasy ranking. I would sell him as soon as possible, before he goes cold again. Which, knowing Doug Martin, he probably will.
James Jones
What if I told you, at the beginning of this year, that James Jones would be tied for the league lead in TD catches through week six? You probably would have said “That guy doesn’t even have a job”, and laughed in my face. Well, I probably would have done the same thing. I can not wrap my head around the idea that James Jones is leading Randall Cobb in yards, touchdowns, receptions of 20 plus yards, receptions of 40 plus yards and receiving yards per game. However, Jones’ overall lack of catches makes me nervous. If Aaron Rodgers intended for Jones to be the team’s top guy, why isn’t he leading the team in receptions? If you ask me, I think Jones’s success early in the season has everything to do with being overlooked by defenses, and open in critical times. Once opponents start cracking down on Jones, his value will fall a great deal. Trade him for someone more stable, with a better upside going forward.
BUY LOW
Jordan Cameron
Jordan Cameron looked like another failed Miami free agent (add him to the list) until he FINALLY caught a touchdown pass in week six. Under the new coaching staff, Miami looks like a better team, which bodes well for Cameron. But his, and Ryan Tannehill’s, inconsistencies thus far have made fantasy owners nervous about playing him on a weekly basis. Which is understandable, seeing as Jake Stoneburner has more touchdown catches than Cameron. Regardless, things seem to be looking up for Cameron. The Dolphins finally won a game, and they look to be trending upwards for the coming games. Keep in mind, however, that Miami has been one of the most inconsistent teams in the NFL thus far. You have to hope that said inconsistency goes on the upswing in the near future. I think Cameron is worth a risk, as you can get him for next to nothing in many leagues.
Charcandrick West
Getting a good read on Charcandrick “Rick” West’s value is as hard to do as saying his name five times fast. The sample size to draw from is pretty much one NFL game (in which he struggled) and one season in college. You can’t really get anything from one NFL game, and his college games weren’t against real NFL competition (his school, Abilene Christian, played in Division II until his senior year), so Rick’s value is anyone’s guess. The only thing we have to go on, other than his pro day stats (He ran a 4.27 forty with a huge tailwind, so even that is skewed), is the fact that Andy Reid has a history of coaching short, stout, speedy backs to strong fantasy showings in the past. Think LeSean McCoy, Brian Westbrook (I know, a real throwback) and Jamaal Charles. Since Charles looks to be out for the year, and the only other back getting legitimate carries is Knile Davis, Rick looks like someone who you should look to buy low. If you go past his stats, and just watch him play, you get that gut feeling that he could be something special. I know I sound like a pre-metrics scout, but it really is true. Grab him while you can.
Jarvis Landry
The second Dolphin on this list, Jarvis Landry has underperformed from a receiving standpoint all season. As far as rushing goes, he has been top notch. Regardless, we all know Landry could be way better than he has been. Like I said with Jordan Cameron, the Dolphins have been extremely inconsistent. However, for some strange reason, Landry has been trapped in a twilight zone where wide receivers get consistent rushing opportunities. Joe Philbin ran him often, and Dan Campbell has shown no intent to change that. Landry actually put up a decent fantasy showing last game, rushing for a touchdown and catching three of four for forty-two yards. Not exactly what you would expect, but I’ll take it for now. If you can trade for Landry, and do it on the cheap, then you probably should. His offensive snap percentage is higher than Demaryius Thomas’s, so the opportunity is there. Tannehill just has to make the throws, and Landry can finally live up to his large fantasy potential.