The Impact Rookie Wide Receiver to Own for 2015
-FF_Savant August 27
NOTE: This article was written before Breshad Perriman was sidelined with a strained PCL for essentially the entirety of camp and preseason snaps. Perriman’s injury has caused his ADP to plummet from the 80 - 90 range to his current ADP of 124 (ADP data courtesy of fantasyfootballcalculator.com). While I think Perriman owner’s will have to wait at least a few weeks for Perriman to get healthy and up to speed in the Baltimore offense, there is still tremendous upside to be had by drafting him. This is confirmed by Perriman’s ADP in best ball formats (which I consider to be a more efficient and accurate fantasy football market than Fantasy Football Calculator). As previously stated, Perriman’s ADP on FFC is 124, but in the MFL10 best ball format, his ADP is significantly higher at 108.
The 2014 rookie wide receiver class was arguably the best in NFL history. From Odell Beckham’s insane one-handed grabs and eye-popping stats, to the slew of other talented pass-catchers that brought us sweet fantasy goodness, it would be unfair to expect similar production from this year’s rookie wide receiver class. Nonetheless, the 2015 class is full of potential fake football stars who have the ability to take your team to the promised land.
When attempting to uncover the rookie wide receiver(s) with the biggest potential fantasy impact, I think it’s important to define what exactly we are looking for. When I think of an “impact player” from a fantasy perspective, I think of the players that are most commonly on winning rosters. According to ESPN.com, Odell Beckham Jr. was on nearly one-third of league-winning rosters in 2014 (almost ten percent higher than any other player). The players most commonly on winning rosters are not always bona fide top 5 fantasy selections. Going back to Beckham, Jr., it will be nearly impossible for OBJ to have the same impact for fantasy owners in 2015 now that his price has caught up to his massive potential.
As I began my research into unearthing the most impactful rookie WR(s) for 2015, I knew I was essentially looking for the best combination of ceiling and value. This combination may sound obvious, but along with some QB concerns and ambiguous workloads, I quickly eliminated the higher-ADP players like Amari Cooper (ADP of 40). Cooper is an incredibly talented player with a high long-term ceiling, but being drafted as a WR2 puts a bit of a cap on each player’s potential value for this season. I was eventually able to narrow it down to my favorite rookie wide receiver to target in drafts this upcoming season: Breshad Perriman.
Breshad Perriman, Baltimore Ravens: ADP of 124
We are currently seeing Perriman go 24 wide receivers after Agholor, even though Agholor will have a legitimate competition for targets with Jordan Matthews and has the largely unproven Sam Bradford at the helm. I love Chip Kelly as much as the next guy, and there will be enough targets to go around in Philadelphia—but Algholor will have to fight off Jordan Matthews for the number one receiver role. Perriman needs to fight off the likes of 36-year-old Steve Smith, Kamar Aiken, Marlon Brown, and rookie tight end Maxx Williams to become the top dog in the Ravens passing game.
Need more reasons to go all in on Perriman? Fantasy football production is essentially equal to a player’s opportunity times his talent. Talented players (especially rookies) are oftentimes stuck on the bench for inefficient veterans—that should not be a problem for Perriman in 2015. Baltimore lost Torrey Smith in free agency to San Francisco. The Ravens replaced Owen Daniels with rookie tight end Maxx Williams—rookie tight ends are not exactly known for their first year contributions. In ten years as either a head coach or an offensive coordinator, new Ravens offensive coordinator Marc Trestman’s offenses have never ranked higher in rushing attempts than passing attempts. A Trestman-led offense has ranked in the bottom half of the league in pass attempts exactly zero times. In other words, Baltimore is almost certain to pass more than they run relative to the league, and they are almost certain to attempt more passes than 50% of other NFL teams. In 2014, the Ravens ranked 17th in pass attempts—a respectable number—but it is easy to envision at least a slight uptick in pass attempts (a.k.a. available targets for Perriman) in 2015. With the large amount of available targets, a competent quarterback (and good deep-ball passer) in Flacco, and the likelihood of a more pass happy offense in Baltimore, Perriman is in the best situation of any rookie wide receiver this season.
Perriman will need to at least fill Torrey Smith’s role in the Ravens offense in order become the most impactful rookie wide receiver. Torrey Smith has been at best a fantasy WR2 and at worst a WR3 over the past three seasons. The available workload is certainly there, but does Breshad Perriman have the talent to coincide with the immense opportunity that awaits him in the Baltimore offense? Using the RotoViz Box Score Scout, I ran a comparison between Smith and Perriman (See Heatmap at the bottom of the article)
From a physical perspective, Perriman actually has a slight advantage, being about an inch taller and eight pounds heavier. While these do not seem like huge jumps, there is a direct correlation between height and weight when compared to red zone touchdowns, and Perriman has the advantage in both. Additionally, Perriman has bigger hands by 5/8”, if you are into that sort of thing. With the lack of other red zone targets, Perriman has a strong chance to lead Baltimore in receiving touchdowns—Torrey Smith led the Ravens with 11 touchdowns receptions last season. When looking at the athletic profiles of these two receivers, Perriman is at the very least on the same level as Smith, and he is more athletic in many aspects. Specifically, Perriman has the faster forty yard dash and a much better freak score (a measure of the combination of size and speed). Perriman has enough size to develop into Flacco’s preferred red zone target, yet he has more than enough speed and athleticism to become an elite deep threat with the help of Flacco’s big arm. Lastly, their final year college production is quite similar, aside from the strength of schedule score—not something that I view as overly concerning given Perriman’s size, athleticism, and workload potential.
Throughout the summer, fantasy footballers have been bombarded with recommendations for rookie wide receivers—Amari Cooper, Nelson Agholor, Dorial Green-Beckham, Devante Parker, Jaelen Strong, and Devin Funchess are all viable fake football options to consider. Breshad Perriman, however, has the best combination of opportunity and talent relative to his draft position. He is currently being drafted as a borderline WR5/WR6, which seems about right if we were drafting based on his floor. Perriman has a WR2 ceiling that is not baked into his average draft position—if you are looking for the impact rookie wide receiver for 2015, look no further than Mr. Breshad Perriman.