#TBT: Larry Fitzgerald
-FF_Savant September 3
What if I told you that the 55th ranked wide receiver in 2014 could be had as the 37th wide receiver off the board this year? Seems like a pretty terrible idea to draft Larry Fitzgerald, huh? But what if I told you that in games where Carson Palmer was the starter last season, the 32-year-old wide receiver was on pace for a WR13 finish? Furthermore, what if I told you that Larry Fitzgerald finished as the WR16 in 2013, also with Carson Palmer at the helm? Lastly, what if I told you that I could create an opening paragraph composed solely of questions? Pretty impressive, right?
The following is a screenshot from the Rotoviz Game Splits app:
The following is a screenshot from the Rotoviz Game Splits app:
The “In Split” column shows Fitzgerald’s stats with Carson Palmer at the helm for 2013-2014, while the “Out of Split” column presents Larry’s stats with either Drew Stanton or Ryan Lindley as the starting QB. These splits give us two potential takeaways: (1) Larry Fitzgerald’s ability to be a fantasy-relevant WR fell off of a cliff at the exact same time that Carson Palmer went down with his season-ending injury, or (2) Larry Fitzgerald is much more effective when the likes of Drew Stanton and Ryan Lindley aren’t throwing him the ball. Notice that Fitzgerald’s targets per game are almost identical no matter who the QB is, but his receptions per game go up substantially. I think we can reasonably conclude that Fitz’s problem last year was simply not getting enough catchable targets from his quarterbacks when Palmer was out.
There are still legitimate concerns about Larry Fitzgerald this season. I think we can expect some decline in effectiveness due to his age, and he will have to fight for targets among Michael Floyd and John Brown, both of whom are talented enough to see an uptick in usage this season. Additionally, Carson Palmer is an injury risk, and if he goes down the backup looks to be none other than Drew Stanton. With all this being said, you can get Fitz in the 9th or 10th round as a WR4/WR5, but he has legitimate WR2 upside. If you have an upcoming draft, watch your leaguemates take lottery ticket rookies who are unlikely to contribute this year, while you pounce on the old man with a more realistic ceiling—Larry Fitzgerald. And if you’ve already drafted and missed out, there’s a good chance that Fitz’s owner doesn’t realize his upside—make an offer before his price shoots up.
As always, if you have any questions or comments, feel free to tweet us @FF_Underground, or tweet me personally at @FF_Savant.
There are still legitimate concerns about Larry Fitzgerald this season. I think we can expect some decline in effectiveness due to his age, and he will have to fight for targets among Michael Floyd and John Brown, both of whom are talented enough to see an uptick in usage this season. Additionally, Carson Palmer is an injury risk, and if he goes down the backup looks to be none other than Drew Stanton. With all this being said, you can get Fitz in the 9th or 10th round as a WR4/WR5, but he has legitimate WR2 upside. If you have an upcoming draft, watch your leaguemates take lottery ticket rookies who are unlikely to contribute this year, while you pounce on the old man with a more realistic ceiling—Larry Fitzgerald. And if you’ve already drafted and missed out, there’s a good chance that Fitz’s owner doesn’t realize his upside—make an offer before his price shoots up.
As always, if you have any questions or comments, feel free to tweet us @FF_Underground, or tweet me personally at @FF_Savant.