NBA DFS - Contrarian Corner
@Jagibbs_23 January 14
Hello all, and welcome in to the Contrarian Corner! If you’ve played DFS for very long, you realize by now the importance of being contrarian, especially in large-field tournaments. Being able to recognize which players are going to be owned by the majority of the field and find players that you think have a similar point projection but will come at much lower ownership can really separate yourself from the field. It’s a lot easier in NFL to identify the players who will be low-owned due to Thursday Night slates, but NBA can be much more difficult if you aren’t an experienced player. The purpose of the Contrarian Corner will be to bring you one or two high-upside players at each position that will likely go overlooked.
Point Guard:
Kyrie Irving @ San Antonio ($6,800) - If you just look at Kyrie’s game log, it’d be easy to just chalk him up as a hit-or-miss option who is hard to project from game to game. If you look more closely, the games Irving has put up big performances are against good teams, while all of his duds have come against weaker teams (excluding the game against the Warriors, in which he was still on a minutes cap). I expect him to get a full minutes load tonight and be aggressive against the Spurs team that beat Cleveland in the finals two years ago and is one of the premier teams again this season. While I generally don’t like to attack the Spurs defense, Tony Parker’s individual defense has declined in recent seasons. Over the past three seasons, Irving has averaged nearly eight DK PPG more in games against Parker than all other games. Irving’s career high also came against Parker last season, when he dropped 57 points on him, which was one of the most impressive offensive performances I had watched in a long time. Here’s a link if you have a couple minutes: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uS5TuwG-QSE Mo Williams will sit this game again, which further solidifies Irving’s minutes tonight. His price is far too low, and his ownership may be too if people are too scared off by the matchup. The Cavs are going to have to score to keep this game competitive, and with LeBron and Love in much tougher individual matchups, I expect Irving to take on a big role tonight. I expect Stephen Curry and Ish Smith to both have higher ownership than Kyrie, and it appears Mike Conley and Derrick Rose will both cede minutes to their backups tonight, which could draw additional attention away from Irving. He’s my favorite tournament PG on the slate.
Shooting Guard:
Rodney Hood @ Sacramento ($5,900) - On any other slate, I’d expect Hood to see very high ownership due to flow-chart people who pencil in SGs vs the Kings. I think he could go overlooked tonight though, due to Lou Williams being only $600 more and the influx of value on this slate allowing people to pay up for someone like Jimmy Butler. Hood also has a few clunkers, which may scare people off of him at this price. Hood has really found his stroke recently though, hitting 3.33 threes per game and shooting 52.63% from behind the arc over his past six games. His skillset matches up perfectly for a matchup with the Kings, as Sacramento is ranked 29th in DVP vs SGs, has allowed three 3PM to opposing SGs per game (highest in the NBA), 10.7 3PM to opposing teams (highest in the NBA), and rank 28th in defensive efficiency as a team. I’ll have Lou Williams in my cash games, but Hood is my preferred GPP play tonight and I believe you can get him at relatively low ownership.
Small Forward:
Kawhi Leonard vs Cleveland ($8,100) - Leonard is coming off of the worst statistical game of his season and has seen his numbers decline recently, which has resulted in his price being the lowest it has been since November. His ownership will also likely be down considering his recent drop in production and the tough matchup against a Cleveland team ranked fourth in DVP vs SFs and fifth in defensive efficiency. I believe there is reason to believe Kawhi can bounce back in this game though. A big key to Leonard’s success this season has been his improved offensive role for San Antonio. His usage rate has hovered around 24.5 most of the season, which would be a career high. Before last game’s outlier, Leonard’s usage rate hadn’t been below 22.9 in a game since December 30, leading me to believe his role in the offense hasn’t changed. Another reason for optimism is Leonard’s individual matchup against LeBron James. A matchup with James is almost always a negative for opposing SFs, but that hasn’t been the case for Leonard, who has averaged 5.73 more DK PPG in his career in games against Lebron than in other games. Leonard also averaged 43.88 DK PPG in matchups with James last season, and we all remember what happened when the two met up in the NBA Finals two years ago. While many players struggle when they’re required to give extra effort on defense, Leonard seems to thrive. This trend is backed by the fact that some of his biggest fantasy performances have come against elite scorers this season. In games against James Harden, Kevin Durant, Carmelo Anthony, Paul George, and Jimmy Butler that weren't blowouts, Leonard averaged 47.21 DK PPG. He also averaged 4.67 combined blocks and steals per game in those contests. This is far from a sure-fire pick, but I am happily taking the discounted ownership and price on Leonard in tournaments tonight. Let others worry about a one game sample size. I’ll stick to the 38 game sample size in which Leonard has ranked fifth in PER, ninth in TS%, and first in 3P% among qualified players.
Robert Covington vs Chicago ($4,400) - Covington’s minutes have been up and down this season, but we all remember what he can do when given big minutes. In case you don’t, Covington averaged 39.17 DK PPG in games he saw at least 27 minutes for the Sixers this season. Covington played 32 minutes last game for Philly, in a game in which Jerami Grant played 30 minutes. Grant is doubtful for tonight’s game, which should solidify the minutes of Covington, who should be able to put up fantasy points in a hurry against a Bulls team that has given up the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing teams and is ranked 25th in DVP vs SFs. I wouldn’t take Covington in cash games, but he’s worth a look in GPPs at his discounted price.
Power Forward:
Bobby Portis @ Philadelphia ($4,100) - Pau Gasol is out for tonight, opening up roughly 33 minutes for the remaining healthy Bulls big men tonight. If this was two weeks ago, people would be losing their minds over Bobby Portis tonight in a dream matchup against Philly, but since Portis had fallen out of the rotation recently, we get a chance to get Portis at low ownership and discounted price. Everyone is talking about Joakim Noah, Taj Gibson, and Nikola Mirotic tonight, and many will be on Jimmy Butler if he plays too. It seems like Portis is seen as the fifth option on the Bulls for DFS players tonight, and I highly doubt many are going to give Portis serious consideration tonight. The Bulls have nobody behind Noah and Gibson on the interior, and I don’t think Noah is ready to play much more than 30 minutes yet. I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see Portis get 25+ minutes tonight. Considering he is averaging over a DK point per minute and is playing against a Philadelphia team ranking 26th in rebounding rate and 24th in defensive efficiency, I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Portis crushed value tonight. The last game Gasol missed, Portis played 22 minutes and 40.25 DK points. Portis also has minute security if this game turns into a blowout. Give Portis a long look as a contrarian value play tonight.
Center:
Andre Drummond @ Memphis ($8,700) - This is the cheapest we’ve seen Drummond’s price since the fourth game of the season. Memphis 23rd in rebounding rate as a team. That number is actually aided by their guards and forwards, as starting center Marc Gasol is ranked 52nd among centers in rebounding rate this season and having the worst rebounding season of his career with a 12% rebounding rate. Drummond, on the other hand, leads the league in rebounding rate (24.2%) and rebounds per game (15.4) by a pretty wide margin. The Grizzlies starting unit is also undersized due to Zach Randolph’s move to the bench, which should allow Drummond to eat glass tonight, as he did in his last game against Memphis, a.19 rebound, 53.25 DK point performance. Drummond has disappointed many owners recently, which may lead to low ownership due to recency bias. It’s not often you get to target a player in a matchup that suits his skillset perfectly at a discounted price and ownership. Drummond is a very appealing GPP play tonight.
Point Guard:
Kyrie Irving @ San Antonio ($6,800) - If you just look at Kyrie’s game log, it’d be easy to just chalk him up as a hit-or-miss option who is hard to project from game to game. If you look more closely, the games Irving has put up big performances are against good teams, while all of his duds have come against weaker teams (excluding the game against the Warriors, in which he was still on a minutes cap). I expect him to get a full minutes load tonight and be aggressive against the Spurs team that beat Cleveland in the finals two years ago and is one of the premier teams again this season. While I generally don’t like to attack the Spurs defense, Tony Parker’s individual defense has declined in recent seasons. Over the past three seasons, Irving has averaged nearly eight DK PPG more in games against Parker than all other games. Irving’s career high also came against Parker last season, when he dropped 57 points on him, which was one of the most impressive offensive performances I had watched in a long time. Here’s a link if you have a couple minutes: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uS5TuwG-QSE Mo Williams will sit this game again, which further solidifies Irving’s minutes tonight. His price is far too low, and his ownership may be too if people are too scared off by the matchup. The Cavs are going to have to score to keep this game competitive, and with LeBron and Love in much tougher individual matchups, I expect Irving to take on a big role tonight. I expect Stephen Curry and Ish Smith to both have higher ownership than Kyrie, and it appears Mike Conley and Derrick Rose will both cede minutes to their backups tonight, which could draw additional attention away from Irving. He’s my favorite tournament PG on the slate.
Shooting Guard:
Rodney Hood @ Sacramento ($5,900) - On any other slate, I’d expect Hood to see very high ownership due to flow-chart people who pencil in SGs vs the Kings. I think he could go overlooked tonight though, due to Lou Williams being only $600 more and the influx of value on this slate allowing people to pay up for someone like Jimmy Butler. Hood also has a few clunkers, which may scare people off of him at this price. Hood has really found his stroke recently though, hitting 3.33 threes per game and shooting 52.63% from behind the arc over his past six games. His skillset matches up perfectly for a matchup with the Kings, as Sacramento is ranked 29th in DVP vs SGs, has allowed three 3PM to opposing SGs per game (highest in the NBA), 10.7 3PM to opposing teams (highest in the NBA), and rank 28th in defensive efficiency as a team. I’ll have Lou Williams in my cash games, but Hood is my preferred GPP play tonight and I believe you can get him at relatively low ownership.
Small Forward:
Kawhi Leonard vs Cleveland ($8,100) - Leonard is coming off of the worst statistical game of his season and has seen his numbers decline recently, which has resulted in his price being the lowest it has been since November. His ownership will also likely be down considering his recent drop in production and the tough matchup against a Cleveland team ranked fourth in DVP vs SFs and fifth in defensive efficiency. I believe there is reason to believe Kawhi can bounce back in this game though. A big key to Leonard’s success this season has been his improved offensive role for San Antonio. His usage rate has hovered around 24.5 most of the season, which would be a career high. Before last game’s outlier, Leonard’s usage rate hadn’t been below 22.9 in a game since December 30, leading me to believe his role in the offense hasn’t changed. Another reason for optimism is Leonard’s individual matchup against LeBron James. A matchup with James is almost always a negative for opposing SFs, but that hasn’t been the case for Leonard, who has averaged 5.73 more DK PPG in his career in games against Lebron than in other games. Leonard also averaged 43.88 DK PPG in matchups with James last season, and we all remember what happened when the two met up in the NBA Finals two years ago. While many players struggle when they’re required to give extra effort on defense, Leonard seems to thrive. This trend is backed by the fact that some of his biggest fantasy performances have come against elite scorers this season. In games against James Harden, Kevin Durant, Carmelo Anthony, Paul George, and Jimmy Butler that weren't blowouts, Leonard averaged 47.21 DK PPG. He also averaged 4.67 combined blocks and steals per game in those contests. This is far from a sure-fire pick, but I am happily taking the discounted ownership and price on Leonard in tournaments tonight. Let others worry about a one game sample size. I’ll stick to the 38 game sample size in which Leonard has ranked fifth in PER, ninth in TS%, and first in 3P% among qualified players.
Robert Covington vs Chicago ($4,400) - Covington’s minutes have been up and down this season, but we all remember what he can do when given big minutes. In case you don’t, Covington averaged 39.17 DK PPG in games he saw at least 27 minutes for the Sixers this season. Covington played 32 minutes last game for Philly, in a game in which Jerami Grant played 30 minutes. Grant is doubtful for tonight’s game, which should solidify the minutes of Covington, who should be able to put up fantasy points in a hurry against a Bulls team that has given up the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing teams and is ranked 25th in DVP vs SFs. I wouldn’t take Covington in cash games, but he’s worth a look in GPPs at his discounted price.
Power Forward:
Bobby Portis @ Philadelphia ($4,100) - Pau Gasol is out for tonight, opening up roughly 33 minutes for the remaining healthy Bulls big men tonight. If this was two weeks ago, people would be losing their minds over Bobby Portis tonight in a dream matchup against Philly, but since Portis had fallen out of the rotation recently, we get a chance to get Portis at low ownership and discounted price. Everyone is talking about Joakim Noah, Taj Gibson, and Nikola Mirotic tonight, and many will be on Jimmy Butler if he plays too. It seems like Portis is seen as the fifth option on the Bulls for DFS players tonight, and I highly doubt many are going to give Portis serious consideration tonight. The Bulls have nobody behind Noah and Gibson on the interior, and I don’t think Noah is ready to play much more than 30 minutes yet. I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see Portis get 25+ minutes tonight. Considering he is averaging over a DK point per minute and is playing against a Philadelphia team ranking 26th in rebounding rate and 24th in defensive efficiency, I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Portis crushed value tonight. The last game Gasol missed, Portis played 22 minutes and 40.25 DK points. Portis also has minute security if this game turns into a blowout. Give Portis a long look as a contrarian value play tonight.
Center:
Andre Drummond @ Memphis ($8,700) - This is the cheapest we’ve seen Drummond’s price since the fourth game of the season. Memphis 23rd in rebounding rate as a team. That number is actually aided by their guards and forwards, as starting center Marc Gasol is ranked 52nd among centers in rebounding rate this season and having the worst rebounding season of his career with a 12% rebounding rate. Drummond, on the other hand, leads the league in rebounding rate (24.2%) and rebounds per game (15.4) by a pretty wide margin. The Grizzlies starting unit is also undersized due to Zach Randolph’s move to the bench, which should allow Drummond to eat glass tonight, as he did in his last game against Memphis, a.19 rebound, 53.25 DK point performance. Drummond has disappointed many owners recently, which may lead to low ownership due to recency bias. It’s not often you get to target a player in a matchup that suits his skillset perfectly at a discounted price and ownership. Drummond is a very appealing GPP play tonight.