NBA DFS Breakdown - 11/23
@Jagibbs_23 November 23
Game Scripts:
Shooutouts: Games with the highest O/U. Teams with (O/U in parenthesis)
Charlotte vs Sacramento (207)
Blowout Concerns: Games you may want to avoid due to the large differences in team totals. (Proj. Team Total in parenthesis)
Cleveland (102.5) vs Orlando (93.5)
San Antonio (102.8) vs Phoenix (94.3)
Pace Up: Teams seeing a big increase in pace due to matchup. It’s worth considering targeting players on this list because they’ll have more possessions than normal. Conversely, it may be worth considering fading teams that are on the opposite end of these matchups, because they’re playing down in pace.
Utah (+3.3)
San Antonio (+2.8)
Charlotte (+2.3)
Cleveland (+1.7)
Milwaukee (+1.6)
Fantasy Friendly Matchups: Teams playing against bottom ten team defenses in fantasy points allowed this year. EX: Offense (Matchup - DVP Rank)
Minnesota (Philadelphia - 29)
Charlotte (Sacramento - 27)
Cleveland (Orlando - 24)
Detroit (Milwaukee - 21)
Back to Back Concerns: Teams on the back end of a back to back set
Oklahoma City traveling from OKC to Utah.
Phoenix traveling from New Orleans to San Antonio
*Be sure to monitor the @FF_Underground account throughout the day to keep updated on the developing injury situations. Much changes throughout the day, and I'll keep you updated.
Point Guard:
Reggie Jackson @ Milwaukee (7600) - Last season Reggie Jackson averaged 9.2 assists per game after being acquired by the Pistons. This season, he has averaged only 5.8 APG despite having a higher usage rate (31.5 as opposed to 28.6) than he did with Detroit last year. While he may not get up to 9.2 again, I think there is reason to expect his assists to bump up from 5.8. Per nbaminer.com, Reggie Jackson has an 11.34 assisted FG%, the lowest among all players in the top 100 in assists per game. So on Jackson’s passes that result in a shot attempt, his teammates are shooting 11.34%! For reference, Draymond Green, Mike Conley, and Isaiah Thomas have all had their 6+ APG numbers boosted by 82.09%, 50%, and 53.26% assisted FG percentages respectively. Jackson has seen some positive regression as of late, averaging 8.67 APG over his past three games, and I expect him to continue to see his assist numbers to rise, as 11.34% is simply unsustainably low. Jackson has also been scoring the ball well this year, averaging 20.4 PPG on the year. Jackson will be guarded by Michael Carter-Williams in this one, who doesn’t look to be 100% yet in his return from an ankle injury. Jackson has a significant edge in quickness over MCW, and I expect him to beat him off the dribble repeatedly in this one. Jackson has shown 50+ upside this year, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he is near that number today. He is my favorite GPP PG on the night.
Kemba Walker vs Sacramento (6900) - Walker has followed up a slow start with a terrific string of games recently, averaging 39.9 DK PPG over his past five games. Despite his recent performance and solid track record, DK is taking a conservative approach with his pricing, as he is still below 7k. This matchup against Sacramento is one of the best on the board. The Kings have given up the fourth most fantasy points to opposing teams this year, and have been average against opposing PGs. This is a pace up game for Charlotte, and they have the highest team total on the board, which rarely happens. They’re projected to score 3.5 more than their season average, and I expect a lot of that production to come from Kemba. The offense has run through Walker and Big Al recently, and Jefferson will have his hands full with Boogie Cousins in this one. I am looking at Walker to carry the load for the Hornets and continue to put up nearly 40 DK PPG. Walker is in play in both cash games and GPPs tonight.
Zach LaVine vs Philadelphia (4700) - This pick is not one for the faint of heart, but is one of my favorites in GPPs. The 76ers are giving away fantasy points like it’s their job, and with Kevin Martin moved into the starting lineup, LaVine should have a huge usage rate playing with the bench unit. He has topped 20 DK points in each of his last five starts and is averaging 30.25 DK PPG over that stretch. This game also has the potential to get out of hand, which would lead to more minutes for LaVine. He’s averaging over a fantasy point per minute, and I could see him averaging well over that with a boosted usage rate in the second unit against Philly. If he sees 30+ minutes in this one, he could post the type of game that wins you a GPP, and he won’t be very highly owned.
Shooting Guard:
Eric Bledsoe @ San Antonio (8400) - Bledsoe has been much more consistent this season, scoring less than 30 DK points only twice. There isn’t a ton to like at SG tonight, so if I’m not punting with K-Mart, I’m paying all the way up for the huge upside of Bledsoe. San Antonio is excellent against SGs, but Bledsoe runs a lot of point for Phoenix as well, and I could see San Antonio putting Danny Green on Knight the way he’s been playing lately. I’m playing K-Mart in cash, but Bledsoe is definitely worth a look in GPPs.
Dwyane Wade vs New York (6800) - After starting the year well, Wade dealt with a sickness for most of last week and posted four subpar performances. If you look deeper, Wade’s usage rate was below 30 in each of those four games, but has returned to his normal levels as he has gotten healthier, with a 35.6 and 30.2 usage rate in his past two games. Wade has seen his minutes bumped up to the mid thirties again recently, and averaged 46.25 in his past two games. Despite his stretch of low scoring games, he’s still sitting at well over a fantasy point per minute on the year. Target Wade at his depressed price tag in cash and GPPs.
Kevin Martin vs Philadelphia (3900) - Kevin Martin is being promoted to the starting lineup for this one, and should see close to thirty minutes against the hapless 76ers defense. Philadelphia is allowing the second most fantasy points to opposing teams on the year, and teams are shooting 37.2% against them, the sixth highest mark in the league. He only needs 22.1 DK points to reach value at this bargain-bin price, something he should have no problem doing in this matchup. I don’t think he has much upside, but he has such a high chance of reaching value that he’s worth rostering in cash games.
Jared Cunningham vs Orlando (3000) - No Kyrie. No Mo Williams. No Iman Shumpert. Possibly no Dellavedova. I never thought I’d recommend Jared Cunningham, but there is simply nobody else for Cleveland to throw out there at guard. Cunningham will reportedly start at PG for Cleveland against an Orlando team ranked 27th against opposing PGs in DVP. He likely won’t do much while on the court, but he doesn’t need to do much to reach value at min price. If Delly is out or on a minutes restriction, give Cunningham a look in cash games because he could see 30 minutes in this one.
Small Forward:
LeBron James vs Orlando (10100) - The Cavs have no guards and Mosgov will miss this one as well. LeBron is going to have to do everything for Cleveland in this one, and in a matchup against the eighth worst fantasy defense in the NBA, LeBron’s ceiling is through the roof. There are tons of appealing options at SF today, but if you miss out on a 70 point game from LeBron, you may not be cashing tonight. I’d give him a long look in cash and GPP formats.
Kawhi Leonard vs Phoenix (8200) - The Suns have improved their defense this season, but they are allowing the fifth most fantasy points to opposing SFs. LaMarcus Aldridge may miss this one, which should lead to additional looks for Leonard. He hasn’t scored less than 33 DK points in a game this year, which is the type of stability you look for in cash games. This is a pace-up game for the Spurs, which suits Leonard better than any other Spur. He has a floor in the mid thirties, and a ceiling in the 50s. Leonard is worth a look in all formats tonight.
Tobias Harris @ Cleveland (6300) - Harris showed some inconsistency early in the year due to the randomness of Scott Skiles’ rotation, but he has averaged 38.4 MPG over his past five. He has averaged 34.2 over that span, and has topped 43 twice. He’s also being much more aggressive in looking for his shot, with double digit FGAs in eight of his past ten games. He needs 31.7 to reach value, and he’s topped that number in three of his past five. At this price tag, give him a look in all formats tonight.
Gordon Hayward vs OKC (6200) - Hayward has been a big disappointment this year, as he’s seen some serious regression in his sixth NBA season. He’s been more consistent lately though, topping 29 DK points in seven of his past eight games. He’s averaged 31.34 DK PPG and 35.38 MPG over that span. This is a significant pace-up game for the Jazz, as their (+3.3) pace rating and (+5.2) team total suggest. Despite his recent play, Hayward’s price is at a season-low and implies 31.3 points for him. Don’t play him in cash, but give him a look as a low-owned GPP flier.
Robert Covington @ Minnesota (4400) - I may be jumping on this one a bit early, but I want to beat the crowd. Covington is back from injury and saw his minutes ramped up to 32 in the last game. Covington has seen a 27.33 usage rate off the bench for Philadelphia, and is firing up 4.8 three pointers per game. Minnesota is allowing 8.9 made three pointers this year, eighth most in the league, and Covington has shown the potential to get hot in a hurry. He’s a GPP only play, but he’s worth a flier in large-field tournaments.
Power Forward:
DeMarcus Cousins @ Charlotte (10300) - Boogie has dropped a 60 burger in three of his past four games, and I expect more of the same in this one. Charlotte is ranked 30th in DVP vs PFs this year, and that is largely fueled by their bottom ten rebounding rate. If Cody Zeller again sits out, Marvin Williams will start at PF. Williams is ranked 45th in rebounding rate among PFs. The Kings may go smaller and start Boogie at center, but Al Jefferson has no chance of keeping up with Cousins on the perimeter. If Durant is able to return, Cousins is my top play of the day at any position, regardless of price. Even if we get another night of the Westbrook-show, I prefer Cousins for his price. Play him in cash or GPPs tonight, as he should absolutely dominate the Charlotte frontcourt.
Kristaps Porzingis @ Miami (6700) - Give this kid some freakin minutes! He’s quickly becoming one of my favorite players to watch, and is someone who can win you a GPP on any given night if Coach Fisher decides to let him play. In games he’s seen over minutes this year, he is averaging 46.33 DK PPG! Miami is tough defensively, but Porzingis deserves a look in GPPs every night at this price. There is nobody else in this range that brings 50+ upside to the table. Here’s to hoping D-Fish gives Porzingis some more run following a 24 point, 14 rebound, seven block performance!
Tristan Thompson vs Orlando (5300) - This is likely going to be the chalkiest play of the day, but for good reason. Timofey Mosgov is out for this one, meaning Thompson will draw the start for Cleveland. He’s coming off of a 40 minute, 16 rebound, 39.5 DK point performance in his last start, and we all saw how productive he could be as a starter last year in the playoffs. The Magic have allowed the eighth most fantasy points to opposing teams, and are ranked 21st in DVP vs opposing centers. Thompson has the fifth highest rebounding rate among qualified centers, and should be a glass-eater against Nikola Vucevic, who is ranked 30th in rebounding rate among centers. Thompson may not see 40 minutes again, but he can be safely projected for 30. In games he saw at least 30 minutes since the beginning of last season, Thompson has averaged 31.98 DK PPG. He’s a pretty safe bet to crush value, and should be the first one in your cash game lineup tonight.
Jabari Parker vs Detroit (4200) - The former number two overall pick seems to be a forgotten man in DFS. He’s beginning to see more minutes for the Bucks, and it’s only a matter of time until his talent translates into a big game. Before getting blown out in the last game, the Bucks had given Parker 30+ minutes in back to back games. I expect 30+ for him tonight, and that should be plenty for him to have a productive game against a Detroit team ranked 23rd in DVP vs PFs. Among 77 qualified PFs, the Pistons’ Ersan Ilyasova and Anthony Tolliver come in at 75th and 76th in rebounding rate. Expect Parker to eat them up, and have a very good chance of hitting value at just $4,200.
Center:
Andre Drummond @ Milwaukee (9700) - As you can tell, rebounding rate is a stat I put a lot of weight into when evaluating the prospect of big men in DFS. It is especially important for Andre Drummond, who leads the league in rebounding with a ridiculous 17.8 RPG. Drummond has to be licking his chops in this matchup. Milwaukee has been horrible on the glass all year, ranking dead last in rebounding rate. They are especially bad at defensive rebounding, allowing a league-worst 13.1 offensive rebounds per game. Insert Drummond, who has an insanely high rebounding rate of 26.3. To put that in perspective, Drummond is grabbing ¼ of all available rebounds when he’s on the court! If Drummond keeps this pace up over the course of the season, it’d be the highest qualified total by anyone not named Dennis Rodman, who is widely considered the most tenacious rebounder in the history of the NBA. Milwaukee’s ineptness on the defensive glass is especially inviting for Drummond, whose 5.5 offensive rebounds per game is two full rebounds higher than the next best offensive rebounder. Drummond has slowed down recently, and will carry a low ownership percentage with all the solid options at center, which makes him my favorite tournament center on the slate. He should absolutely eat glass in this one, and I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see 25+ boards from the Big Penguin. Get him in those GPP lineups!
Hassan Whiteside vs New York (8400) - Great stat from Justin Phan of FantasyLabs on Whiteside’s dominant shot-blocking thus far this season: “Hassan Whiteside is averaging more blocks per game (4.8) this season than 13 teams.” Whiteside has been on a tear recently, actually outperforming the more expensive Drummond. If you take out the game against Sacramento in which he was in foul trouble and played only 18 minutes, (still 30.25 DK points though!) Whiteside has averaged 46.95 DK PPG over his past five. The Knicks have been solid defensively this season, but Whiteside is about as matchup-proof as they come. Also, the Knicks have struggled to keep teams off the offensive glass, giving up the ninth most offensive rebounds per game (11.4). Whiteside is averaging 2.8 ORPG, and is fourth in overall rebounding on the year with 11.1 RPG. Whiteside is in play in cash or GPP for me tonight, with the only concern being how many lineups I can fit him in because I love other centers so much tonight.
Karl-Anthony Towns vs Philadelphia (7200) - The Big KAT is coming off of a 40.25 DK point game against Andre Drummond and the Pistons’ number one ranked DVP vs Cs. He finds himself in a FAR more fantasy-friendly matchup tonight against a Philadelphia team ranked 29th in DVP vs opposing centers. Philly is ranked sixth-worst in rebounding rate, and while rookie Jahlil Okafor has been impressive offensively, he is 39th in rebounding rate among centers. Nerlens Noel’s rebounding rate of 15 is slightly better, but I still don’t anticipate him keeping KAT (19.5 Reb Rate, 11.11 RPG over his past nine) off the glass. Just three days ago this Philly team allowed Al Jefferson to drop 54.5 DK points on them in only 31 minutes. It all adds up for Towns to have a monster game, and he’s my favorite center tonight. I’d play him in cash and GPPs.
Tim Duncan vs Phoenix (6300) - Duncan has been remarkably consistent this season, he just hasn’t seen consistent enough minutes to put up big fantasy numbers with any regularity. With LaMarcus Aldridge again questionable, Duncan could put up similar numbers to his last start, in which he played 36 minutes and dropped 40.5 against the Grizzlies. He’s averaging well over a fantasy point per minute on the year, and should see 30+ if Aldridge is out. That should be more than enough to pay off this cheap salary. Monitor the injury news, but if Aldridge is out, Duncan is my top cash game center on the board.