Derek Carr: The Future is Now
-Hoover26 October 1
Looking for the prototypical young quarterback? Look no further than Derek Carr. On paper, he has pretty much everything. Pocket presence, accuracy, arm strength, knowledge, speed, strength, athleticism and a former NFL mentor in his brother David. But, his first season in the NFL wasn’t a real success. He led his Raiders to a 3-13 record, and it looked like nothing went right for the young man.
However, if you dig deeper, you will see that last year was just a breakout waiting to happen. Both his Interception Percentage Index (percentage of times intercepted when attempting to pass) and Sack Percentage Index (percentage of times sacked when attempting to pass) were above average, and he threw 21 touchdowns to only 12 interceptions--solid numbers to say the least (pro-football-reference.com). Yet, his team was still 3-13. Why? Well, for starters, the Raiders’ depth at receiver last year was pretty awful. His top guy was James Jones, who, after being cut by the Raiders at the end of the season, was cut by the Giants before he finally landed a job with the Packers. Jones has also NEVER had a 1,000 yard season. Ever.
His running backs, Maurice Jones-Drew, Darren McFadden and Latavius Murray combined for one more touchdown than fumbles. He ended up ranked 20th in fantasy points for a quarterback, and looked like someone who barely deserved consideration for a QB2 in a one quarterback league. That made some people pretty wary of Carr coming into this season. However, they managed to overlook the fact that the Raiders had added considerable depth to their offense. Oakland added receivers Michael Crabtree (who HAS had a 1,000 yard season) and Amari Cooper, as well as making room for Latavius Murray to head the backfield. Crabtree had more receiving yards than James Jones in 2014, and fumbled zero times compared to Jones’s three. Cooper was another huge addition, who set school records at Alabama for receptions, yards, and touchdowns. With Latavius Murray running the ball, opposing defenses have to respect the run. So, despite the slew of great things that the Raiders did in the offseason for Carr, he was still overlooked at the start of this season due to a below average 2014.
And that brings us to the present day. Oakland is 2-1, and Carr is 12th in quarterback fantasy points so far, ahead of Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck.. That is a really good sign, as the Raiders have already won two-thirds of the games they won last year (going into WEEK 4!). But Carr still has more than he’s showing us. He is just starting to get used to his new receivers, and when he does, be ready for a show. The dangerous big play receivers he has, plus the accuracy to put the ball in the right spot, plus the trust and practice they will have with each other as the season goes on, equals a top ten fantasy quarterback. He may even be a top six or seven in a best case scenario. Assuming Big Ben’s injury takes him out of the top ten, and Andy Dalton comes down from his hot start as he hits the hard part of his schedule, Carr can easily break the top ten. If he can out-perform Tyrod Taylor and Ryan Tannehill, he should get into the top eight. But if he catches fire, as I suspect he will, he has a good shot to be an elite QB1 option by the season’s end. Think about this: NFL.com season long leagues have ten teams, with each team starting one quarterback. So far, Carr has been a top level backup quarterback, but hasn’t broken the starting lineup. If my predictions are correct, he should be able to command a starting role in ten team leagues by week 10-12. He is someone whom you should get ahold of as soon as possible, as I see his stock rising continuously through the rest of this season, and future seasons.
Take Andrew Luck, for example. He was the 9th ranked fantasy QB in his rookie year, 4th in his sophomore year, and 2nd last year. As his NFL experience grew, and his trust with his receivers increased, his fantasy value climbed. I predict that the same thing will happen with Carr. Not so sure? Well, consider this. How many people predicted that a second year QB named Andrew Luck would come out above everyone not named Newton, Brees or Manning?
So, in closing, if you are looking for a quarterback who you can get cheap and will give you elite level production (who isn’t?), Derek Carr is your guy. Carr will be especially great for people in dynasty leagues, as they are looking for someone who will continue to give great numbers for years to come.
However, if you dig deeper, you will see that last year was just a breakout waiting to happen. Both his Interception Percentage Index (percentage of times intercepted when attempting to pass) and Sack Percentage Index (percentage of times sacked when attempting to pass) were above average, and he threw 21 touchdowns to only 12 interceptions--solid numbers to say the least (pro-football-reference.com). Yet, his team was still 3-13. Why? Well, for starters, the Raiders’ depth at receiver last year was pretty awful. His top guy was James Jones, who, after being cut by the Raiders at the end of the season, was cut by the Giants before he finally landed a job with the Packers. Jones has also NEVER had a 1,000 yard season. Ever.
His running backs, Maurice Jones-Drew, Darren McFadden and Latavius Murray combined for one more touchdown than fumbles. He ended up ranked 20th in fantasy points for a quarterback, and looked like someone who barely deserved consideration for a QB2 in a one quarterback league. That made some people pretty wary of Carr coming into this season. However, they managed to overlook the fact that the Raiders had added considerable depth to their offense. Oakland added receivers Michael Crabtree (who HAS had a 1,000 yard season) and Amari Cooper, as well as making room for Latavius Murray to head the backfield. Crabtree had more receiving yards than James Jones in 2014, and fumbled zero times compared to Jones’s three. Cooper was another huge addition, who set school records at Alabama for receptions, yards, and touchdowns. With Latavius Murray running the ball, opposing defenses have to respect the run. So, despite the slew of great things that the Raiders did in the offseason for Carr, he was still overlooked at the start of this season due to a below average 2014.
And that brings us to the present day. Oakland is 2-1, and Carr is 12th in quarterback fantasy points so far, ahead of Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck.. That is a really good sign, as the Raiders have already won two-thirds of the games they won last year (going into WEEK 4!). But Carr still has more than he’s showing us. He is just starting to get used to his new receivers, and when he does, be ready for a show. The dangerous big play receivers he has, plus the accuracy to put the ball in the right spot, plus the trust and practice they will have with each other as the season goes on, equals a top ten fantasy quarterback. He may even be a top six or seven in a best case scenario. Assuming Big Ben’s injury takes him out of the top ten, and Andy Dalton comes down from his hot start as he hits the hard part of his schedule, Carr can easily break the top ten. If he can out-perform Tyrod Taylor and Ryan Tannehill, he should get into the top eight. But if he catches fire, as I suspect he will, he has a good shot to be an elite QB1 option by the season’s end. Think about this: NFL.com season long leagues have ten teams, with each team starting one quarterback. So far, Carr has been a top level backup quarterback, but hasn’t broken the starting lineup. If my predictions are correct, he should be able to command a starting role in ten team leagues by week 10-12. He is someone whom you should get ahold of as soon as possible, as I see his stock rising continuously through the rest of this season, and future seasons.
Take Andrew Luck, for example. He was the 9th ranked fantasy QB in his rookie year, 4th in his sophomore year, and 2nd last year. As his NFL experience grew, and his trust with his receivers increased, his fantasy value climbed. I predict that the same thing will happen with Carr. Not so sure? Well, consider this. How many people predicted that a second year QB named Andrew Luck would come out above everyone not named Newton, Brees or Manning?
So, in closing, if you are looking for a quarterback who you can get cheap and will give you elite level production (who isn’t?), Derek Carr is your guy. Carr will be especially great for people in dynasty leagues, as they are looking for someone who will continue to give great numbers for years to come.