NBA DFS Breakdown - 12/3
@Jagibbs_23 December 3
Game Scripts:
Shootouts: Games with the highest O/U. Teams with (O/U in parenthesis)
Sacramento vs Boston (215)
Portland vs Indiana (201.5)
Miami vs OKC (200.5)
Blowout Concerns: Games you may want to avoid due to the large differences in team totals. (Proj. Team Total in parenthesis)
Toronto (103.5) vs Denver (93)
Projected +/- : Teams projected to score well above or below their season average. (Increase/decrease in parenthesis)
Boston (+6.5)
Toronto (+3.3)
Miami (+3.0)
San Antonio (-4.6)
Memphis (-4.8)
OKC (-7.7)
Orlando (-9.1)
Fantasy Friendly Matchups: Teams playing against bottom ten team defenses in fantasy points allowed this year. EX: Offense (Matchup – DVP Rank)
Boston (Sacramento - 28)
Toronto (Denver - 25)
Utah (Orlando - 22)
Back to Back Concerns: Teams on the back end of a back to back set
Toronto traveling from Atlanta to Toronto
Indiana traveling from Los Angeles to Portland
*Be sure to monitor the @FF_Underground account throughout the day to keep updated on the developing injury situations. Much changes throughout the day, and I’ll keep you updated.
Point Guard:
Kyle Lowry vs Denver (8500) - Denver has a bottom five defense and bleeds points to opposing PGs. They’re ranked 28th in DVP against PGs, and I expect the rookie Mudiay to struggle with the Lowry’s tenacity and quick hands. Lowry hasn’t been below 36 DK points since November 6, and I don’t expect that streak to end tonight in this terrific matchup. Lowry is in play in all formats tonight.
Isaiah Thomas @ Sacramento (7500) - This Boston-Sacramento game should be fun. It has the highest O/U on the slate and both teams are in the top five in pace factor. Boston is projected to score 109 points, and they could definitely exceed that against a Sacramento team ranked 26th in defensive efficiency and giving up the third most fantasy points to opposing teams. To add to what already is an extremely tantalizing matchup for IT2 and the Celtics, this is a revenge game for Thomas. The Pizza Guy has topped 32 DK points in nine of his past ten games, and is averaging 37.38 over his past four. I think he gets well over that mark tonight in this juicy matchup. He’ll be popular, but he’s a nice secondary option if you can’t afford Lowry. He’s viable in cash and GPPs.
Mike Conley vs San Antonio (6700) - Conley disappointed many in his last game and now draws the Spurs, who are ranked first in defensive efficiency and allowing the second fewest fantasy points to opposing teams, which should result in a very low ownership tonight. I like to target point guards against Tony Parker in tournaments when the time is right, because while the Spurs are a great defensive team, they are a bottom ten defense against PGs. In the past two seasons, Mike Conley has averaged 37.11 DK PPG against the defense of Tony Parker, as opposed to 31.42 in all other games, so I have no problem playing him in this matchup tonight. In his career against Duncan, Marc Gasol has averaged nearly three DK PPG less, and the Spurs are ranked second in DVP vs Cs this season. Randolph hasn’t been playing well lately, and the Spurs are terrific against PFs as well. For Memphis to keep this one close, Conley is going to have to take on more of the scoring load, and if he does, he could be a very nice contrarian play in tournaments tonight.
Shooting Guard:
Dwyane Wade vs OKC (6800) - He’s topped 40 in three of his past six games, but the other three have been very ugly. This is an enticing matchup, as Miami will be playing way up in pace and OKC’s worst defensive position is SG. It’s hard to trust Wade, but this game should be competitive and high scoring (for a Heat game). He’s not a bad contrarian option if you want to fade Gerald Green.
Avery Bradley @ Sacramento (6500) - I think Bradley is overpriced for his talent, but the matchup against Sacramento and the lack of options at SG today make him worth the price. He’s been inconsistent in his past six games, topping 38 in three of them and averaging 22.08 in the other three. One thing has been consistent during that stretch though: Bradley has been aggressive on the offensive side of the ball. Over that six game stretch he has averaged 15.67 FGA/G and 7.83 3PA/G. If he continues to chuck at that pace, it could lead to big things against this Sacramento defense. Not only is Sacramento allowing the third most fantasy points to opposing teams, they’re ranked 29th in DVP vs SGs. More specifically, they’re allowing opposing SGs to make three three pointers per game (second-worst in NBA) and shoot 45.7% from the field (third-worst in NBA). In this up-tempo matchup against the Kings, Bradley could definitely post another 40+ game if his shot is falling, which it likely will be against Ben McLemore defense.
Gerald Green vs OKC (4200) - Green will likely draw another start for Deng tonight, and at $4,200, he’s worth a look. His value has been almost directly correlated to Wade’s aggressiveness, so if you think this is a night Wade goes off, I’d avoid Green. In the two starts Green was allowed to shoot 14+ times, he averaged 27.88 DK PPG, while Wade took the back seat and averaged only 19.38. In the last game, Wade took 24 shots and Green only took eight, despite playing 36 minutes. Wade has the better matchup tonight, but Green is far cheaper. I wouldn’t play either in anything other than GPPs, but if you guess right on which one will have a big game, it could set you up quite nicely in a tournament.
Small Forward:
Paul George @ Portland (10000) - There are three premier SF options available for tonight’s slate, all in tough matchups. Being able to pick the right one just may be what separates your lineup from the crowd. Let’s examine:
In their past five games (exluding blowouts):
Kevin Durant (10.1k): 53.7 DK PPG
Paul George (10k): 56.3 DK PPG
Kawhi Leonard (8.6k): 49.35 DK PPG
George and Leonard are both on the back end of back to backs as well.
If I am choosing one of these three tonight, it’s going to be Paul George, who has proven to be matchup proof this season, with only one game below 38 DK points all season. He always goes slightly overlooked because people haven’t adjusted to his price and level of dominance quite yet, but he is worth every penny people! Hopefully you took my advice and rostered him last night, because he dropped his third 60-burger in his past six games. He may not get that tonight, but I think he will come close, especially since lockdown defender Al-Farouq Aminu has been struggling and was recently benched in the second half.
Gordon Hayward vs Orlando (6600) - Hayward started the year incredibly slow, but he has picked it up recently. He’s topped 29 in eight of his past ten games and has averaged 36.8 DK PPG over his past five games. He’s shot above 40% in his past six games and with Rudy Gobert out, his rebounding rate will likely increase. Orlando is allowing the ninth most fantasy points to opposing teams and ranked 19th in DVP vs SFs. The top options are all in tough matchups, so paying down for Hayward may be your best route tonight.
Power Forward:
DeMarcus Cousins vs Boston (10600) - Boogie proved he is clearly healthy enough to carry the load for Sacramento in his first game back from a back injury, dropping a 50-burger on the Mavs. This game has the highest O/U on the slate and Cousins is the most talented player in the game. With all the other top options is tough matchups, Cousins is the most enticing option to pay up for. Amir Johnson is a decent defender, but he has no prayer of handling Cousins down low. Cousins is viable in any format tonight.
Derrick Favors vs Orlando (7200) - The one game Favors played a full game without Gobert, he dropped 64 DK points. He followed that up with a foul-ridden 19 minutes against this very Orlando team. I think Favors gets some revenge on Orlando in this one and drops a 50-burger. He is a terrific value at 7.2k without Gobert in the lineup against an Orlando team ranked 19th in DVP vs Cs. Favors is worth a look in cash games and tournaments.
Trevor Booker vs Orlando (4000) - Booker has been productive in the past when inserted in the starting lineup for the Jazz. In his most recent start, he dropped 46.75 DK points. Keep an eye out on the lineup notes, because Booker would be a terrific punt play if starting for the Jazz tonight.
Center:
Nikola Vucevic @ Utah (6600) - I absolutely love this play in GPPs. As always, it’s tough to trust Scott Skiles, so maybe don’t go all in in cash games, but Vucevic is a terrific play in tournaments at this price. Vuc is one of the most skilled offensive centers in the league, and we’ve seen him above the 9k range when he is at his best. Today we get to target him at only 6.6k despite him averaging 36.5 DK PPG over his past four games. Three of those four games were close games, and Vucevic played 32+ mins took 19 shots in each. This game is projected to stay close, so I’d expect similar volume from Vucevic in this one. The main reason I love this play is that people may be scared off by the matchup. Everywhere you look, you’re going to see Utah ranked #1 against centers, and they’re near the top in almost all defensive metrics as a team. This is the first game without the Stifle Tower though, and I think there will be much more room for Vucevic to operate. He put up 37.8 last time he played Utah (Also without Gobert) and I think he could clear 40 with no problem tonight. He is one of my favorite GPP targets tonight in this perceived tough matchup.
Meyers Leonard vs Indiana (4500) - I really like Ian Mahinmi at this price in cash games, but Leonard is the sneakier pick. Leonard appeared to pass Noah Vonleh on the depth chart in the last game, playing 32 minutes as opposed to Vonleh’s six. Leonard turned those minutes into 37.25 points and took 11 three pointers! We all saw the offensive potential Leonard displayed last season, and if he is going to see an expanded role, he is very underpriced. Keep an eye on the lineup notes; if Leonard starts, he’s a terrific value play. He’s in play as a sneaky play on a six game slate if not starting, but I definitely would prefer the security of knowing he’s in the starting lineup.