NBA Season Long Divisional Breakdown - Northwest Division
@Hoover__26 January 20
While the Northwest Division may have the least teams over .500 in the Western Conference (with only one), they are stacked with fantasy talent. Some of it is obvious (as you will see), but other talented players take some digging to uncover. Here, I will attempt to excavate the Northwest Division and find its fantasy riches for you, dear reader.
Favorite Guards- Russell Westbrook, Damian Lillard, Gordon Hayward
I know, quite the shocker. These guys are staples in every fantasy league. Westbrook is currently averaging more fantasy points than anyone (espn.com), so he clearly is pretty good. Even with Kevin Durant (who you will hear plenty about later, trust me) playing at an incredible level, Westbrook has managed to put together a season that maybe exceeds that of Steph Curry. Lillard is averaging 24.4 points, 7.0 assists and 4.4 rebounds per game this season, so he obviously has some talent. The only players to average more threes per game are the Splash Brothers (Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson for those who live under a rock), and only one PG in the league plays more minutes, so the usage is there. Hayward is probably the least popular of the three (that is really saying something about the others when Gordon Hayward is at the bottom of any list). However, Hayward is a fantasy stud, and deserves to be treated as such. He is averaging 19.6 points, 5.0 rebounds and 3.4 assists per game this season, as well as nearly a pair of three-balls. Hayward can carry his team when they need him, and he can do the same for you.
Favorite Forwards- Danilo Gallinari, Kevin Durant, Andrew Wiggins
Another trio of uber-talented players both in fantasy and real life. Gallinari may play for the generally poor Nuggets, but he averages more fantasy points per game than Danny Green and Brandon Jennings combined. And as the Nuggets young talent continues to develop, Gallinari can only profit from having more talented offensive facilitators on the floor with him. Durant is pretty much an obvious star in every fantasy league, against any matchup, on any day. I don’t care if he just played four straight quadruple overtime games, he is still one of the best fantasy players in the NBA. There isn’t really much I can say that everyone else hasn’t said about him. Andrew Wiggins, however, is a different story. Everyone knows that Wiggins is a great scorer with tons of potential that plays for a young, developing team. However, he has been plagued with being a “single stat” producer. Those kind of players put up flashy numbers, but it doesn’t translate to fantasy points. Wiggins currently averages about .69 Points per Fantasy Point (PPFP), which means that about 69% of his fantasy scoring comes from points (I came up with that stat myself, for the record). Compare that to guys like Kevin Durant, who currently sits at .56, and you see why he has that reputation (for reference, J.J. Redick is at .72). However, Wiggins is improving every aspect of his game. His 20+ point scoring coupled with improving results in other categories makes him a shoo-in for this section.
Favorite Centers- Karl Anthony-Towns, Rudy Gobert, Derrick Favors
This division is not stacked with centers. For the record, I left Favors out of the forward section because he is about to miss his fifteenth consecutive game (plus he would have been the fourth guy). However, Favors is center eligible and this division isn’t filled with stars in the middle (not to say Favors isn’t a star, he’s just an injured one). Before the injury, he was averaging over 35 fantasy points per game for Utah. He seems to be on the edge of a return, but he is set as questionable to doubtful for the upcoming games. Towns was the 11th center drafted on average in espn.com leagues, and is putting together a fine rookie season. The #1 overall pick is averaging 15.6 points, 9.5 rebounds, 1.2 assists and 1.7 blocks per game this year. The great thing is, Towns has nowhere to go but up. Unlike some other talented young bigs (Nerlens Noel perhaps), Towns plays for a team that is committed to building a strong team around him (as opposed to putting together a roster that conflicts with their players’ talents). Towns has a legendary mentor in Kevin Garnett, which is turning out pretty good despite it seeming like a strange matchup. Gobert is the classic fantasy bust turned IR filler turned fantasy star. Gobert was drafted 18th overall on average, which is pretty high. That puts him before guys like Draymond Green and Andre Drummond! He hasn’t lived up to that quite yet, especially after injury kept him out of quite a few games. However, Gobert is back and playing very well. He has two consecutive double-doubles, including one 18 point, 18 board, 5 block outing. Look for him to continue to play well.
Sleeper Guards- Emmanuel Mudiay, Trey Burke, Allen Crabbe
Mudiay was highly touted coming into his rookie season, and I think his fantasy potential was considerably overblown by most everyone (including myself). However, I still think he has a ton of potential. While he may not be a top 5 point guard, he can still be useful in most fantasy formats (aside from teams in roto leagues that are already high in the turnover category). Burke is an interesting player. He can have games where he lights up the stat sheet, even streaks of games where he goes for huge numbers. But he also goes on very cold streaks, which hurts his value. That could be due to his .61 PPFP. He scores a lot, but he needs his other categories in order to put up big numbers. However, he is still a strong sleeper due to his potential to explode on any day. Crabbe is a guy I have been a fan of since his combine. He is similar to Burke in that he scores, without putting up many other stats. However, like Wiggins, he is improving. Look for him to get better in the coming seasons, while holding some fantasy value now.
Sleeper Forwards- Shabazz Muhammad, Trey Lyles
Shabazz looked for a while like he was going to be something of a draft bust, but he is finally coming into his own as a player. He has seen less than twenty minutes in only two of his last ten games, and has topped the 20 point plateau three times in that span. Lyles has profited from Derrick Favors’ injury, and as long as Favors is out, Lyles has very good fantasy value. When Favors returns, Lyles’ minutes may shrink, but I see him as an improving player who could wriggle his way back into the rotation.
Sleeper Centers- Meyers Leonard, Mason Plumlee
A couple of Portland players here. While very few teams in this division have a dominant center that takes all the minutes, guys like Steven Adams don’t really have breakout potential. However, these two Trail Blazers just might. Watch for one to pull away, as they are competing for the same minutes, but they both seem to have strong potential. Leonard has the ability to be the ever-rare “stretch five”, someone who can shoot the three ball from the center spot. Plumlee is more prototypical, but with a strong post presence and unbelievable athleticism. Either one (or both, if Leonard moves to the PF spot) could be the next frontcourt fantasy breakout.
Least Favorite Guards- Dion Waiters, Jameer Nelson
Waiters has a .62 PPFP over his last five games (.72 in his last four), and relies on his shaky scoring and lofty minutes way too much. He can score, and on occasion he can do the other stuff, but he rarely is able to both score and put up other stats in the same game. Nelson was reaping the rewards of Emmanuel Mudiay’s injury, but now that Mudiay is back and Nelson is nursing an injury of his own, his value is diminished greatly.
Least Favorite Forwards- Joffrey Lauvergne, Trevor Booker
For those of you still holding on to Joffrey, now is the time to let go. He isn’t a real part of Denver’s rotation like he was in the early season, and isn’t worth owning anymore. Booker may appear to have value with Derrick Favors still hurt, but Trey Lyles is reaping most of the rewards. While Lyles has the upside to possibly earn some minutes after Favors’ return, I don’t see Booker doing that.
Least Favorite Centers- Gorgui Dieng, Steven Adams
Dieng is talented, don’t get me wrong. If he played for any other team, with any other frontcourt mate, I would say he had value. But with KAT taking the minutes, the touches and the boards, Dieng just doesn’t have enough potential anymore. Sure, he could be a decent streaming option, but owning him long term isn’t the best decision. Adams is in a similar boat, except he has two of the best players in the game (Westbrook and Durant) doing most of the scoring, with other talented bigs (Enes Kanter) soaking up his minutes.
Please note* that while Will Barton wasn’t included in this list (as he didn’t fit into any category), I do like him as a fantasy player and didn’t want to snub him entirely.
Favorite Guards- Russell Westbrook, Damian Lillard, Gordon Hayward
I know, quite the shocker. These guys are staples in every fantasy league. Westbrook is currently averaging more fantasy points than anyone (espn.com), so he clearly is pretty good. Even with Kevin Durant (who you will hear plenty about later, trust me) playing at an incredible level, Westbrook has managed to put together a season that maybe exceeds that of Steph Curry. Lillard is averaging 24.4 points, 7.0 assists and 4.4 rebounds per game this season, so he obviously has some talent. The only players to average more threes per game are the Splash Brothers (Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson for those who live under a rock), and only one PG in the league plays more minutes, so the usage is there. Hayward is probably the least popular of the three (that is really saying something about the others when Gordon Hayward is at the bottom of any list). However, Hayward is a fantasy stud, and deserves to be treated as such. He is averaging 19.6 points, 5.0 rebounds and 3.4 assists per game this season, as well as nearly a pair of three-balls. Hayward can carry his team when they need him, and he can do the same for you.
Favorite Forwards- Danilo Gallinari, Kevin Durant, Andrew Wiggins
Another trio of uber-talented players both in fantasy and real life. Gallinari may play for the generally poor Nuggets, but he averages more fantasy points per game than Danny Green and Brandon Jennings combined. And as the Nuggets young talent continues to develop, Gallinari can only profit from having more talented offensive facilitators on the floor with him. Durant is pretty much an obvious star in every fantasy league, against any matchup, on any day. I don’t care if he just played four straight quadruple overtime games, he is still one of the best fantasy players in the NBA. There isn’t really much I can say that everyone else hasn’t said about him. Andrew Wiggins, however, is a different story. Everyone knows that Wiggins is a great scorer with tons of potential that plays for a young, developing team. However, he has been plagued with being a “single stat” producer. Those kind of players put up flashy numbers, but it doesn’t translate to fantasy points. Wiggins currently averages about .69 Points per Fantasy Point (PPFP), which means that about 69% of his fantasy scoring comes from points (I came up with that stat myself, for the record). Compare that to guys like Kevin Durant, who currently sits at .56, and you see why he has that reputation (for reference, J.J. Redick is at .72). However, Wiggins is improving every aspect of his game. His 20+ point scoring coupled with improving results in other categories makes him a shoo-in for this section.
Favorite Centers- Karl Anthony-Towns, Rudy Gobert, Derrick Favors
This division is not stacked with centers. For the record, I left Favors out of the forward section because he is about to miss his fifteenth consecutive game (plus he would have been the fourth guy). However, Favors is center eligible and this division isn’t filled with stars in the middle (not to say Favors isn’t a star, he’s just an injured one). Before the injury, he was averaging over 35 fantasy points per game for Utah. He seems to be on the edge of a return, but he is set as questionable to doubtful for the upcoming games. Towns was the 11th center drafted on average in espn.com leagues, and is putting together a fine rookie season. The #1 overall pick is averaging 15.6 points, 9.5 rebounds, 1.2 assists and 1.7 blocks per game this year. The great thing is, Towns has nowhere to go but up. Unlike some other talented young bigs (Nerlens Noel perhaps), Towns plays for a team that is committed to building a strong team around him (as opposed to putting together a roster that conflicts with their players’ talents). Towns has a legendary mentor in Kevin Garnett, which is turning out pretty good despite it seeming like a strange matchup. Gobert is the classic fantasy bust turned IR filler turned fantasy star. Gobert was drafted 18th overall on average, which is pretty high. That puts him before guys like Draymond Green and Andre Drummond! He hasn’t lived up to that quite yet, especially after injury kept him out of quite a few games. However, Gobert is back and playing very well. He has two consecutive double-doubles, including one 18 point, 18 board, 5 block outing. Look for him to continue to play well.
Sleeper Guards- Emmanuel Mudiay, Trey Burke, Allen Crabbe
Mudiay was highly touted coming into his rookie season, and I think his fantasy potential was considerably overblown by most everyone (including myself). However, I still think he has a ton of potential. While he may not be a top 5 point guard, he can still be useful in most fantasy formats (aside from teams in roto leagues that are already high in the turnover category). Burke is an interesting player. He can have games where he lights up the stat sheet, even streaks of games where he goes for huge numbers. But he also goes on very cold streaks, which hurts his value. That could be due to his .61 PPFP. He scores a lot, but he needs his other categories in order to put up big numbers. However, he is still a strong sleeper due to his potential to explode on any day. Crabbe is a guy I have been a fan of since his combine. He is similar to Burke in that he scores, without putting up many other stats. However, like Wiggins, he is improving. Look for him to get better in the coming seasons, while holding some fantasy value now.
Sleeper Forwards- Shabazz Muhammad, Trey Lyles
Shabazz looked for a while like he was going to be something of a draft bust, but he is finally coming into his own as a player. He has seen less than twenty minutes in only two of his last ten games, and has topped the 20 point plateau three times in that span. Lyles has profited from Derrick Favors’ injury, and as long as Favors is out, Lyles has very good fantasy value. When Favors returns, Lyles’ minutes may shrink, but I see him as an improving player who could wriggle his way back into the rotation.
Sleeper Centers- Meyers Leonard, Mason Plumlee
A couple of Portland players here. While very few teams in this division have a dominant center that takes all the minutes, guys like Steven Adams don’t really have breakout potential. However, these two Trail Blazers just might. Watch for one to pull away, as they are competing for the same minutes, but they both seem to have strong potential. Leonard has the ability to be the ever-rare “stretch five”, someone who can shoot the three ball from the center spot. Plumlee is more prototypical, but with a strong post presence and unbelievable athleticism. Either one (or both, if Leonard moves to the PF spot) could be the next frontcourt fantasy breakout.
Least Favorite Guards- Dion Waiters, Jameer Nelson
Waiters has a .62 PPFP over his last five games (.72 in his last four), and relies on his shaky scoring and lofty minutes way too much. He can score, and on occasion he can do the other stuff, but he rarely is able to both score and put up other stats in the same game. Nelson was reaping the rewards of Emmanuel Mudiay’s injury, but now that Mudiay is back and Nelson is nursing an injury of his own, his value is diminished greatly.
Least Favorite Forwards- Joffrey Lauvergne, Trevor Booker
For those of you still holding on to Joffrey, now is the time to let go. He isn’t a real part of Denver’s rotation like he was in the early season, and isn’t worth owning anymore. Booker may appear to have value with Derrick Favors still hurt, but Trey Lyles is reaping most of the rewards. While Lyles has the upside to possibly earn some minutes after Favors’ return, I don’t see Booker doing that.
Least Favorite Centers- Gorgui Dieng, Steven Adams
Dieng is talented, don’t get me wrong. If he played for any other team, with any other frontcourt mate, I would say he had value. But with KAT taking the minutes, the touches and the boards, Dieng just doesn’t have enough potential anymore. Sure, he could be a decent streaming option, but owning him long term isn’t the best decision. Adams is in a similar boat, except he has two of the best players in the game (Westbrook and Durant) doing most of the scoring, with other talented bigs (Enes Kanter) soaking up his minutes.
Please note* that while Will Barton wasn’t included in this list (as he didn’t fit into any category), I do like him as a fantasy player and didn’t want to snub him entirely.