DO NOT DRAFT!
-Jagibbs23 August 28
Before we get started, I want to clarify that this is not a list of players I hate. There are several talented players on this list I’d draft at the right price. This is simply a list of players that are going WAY too high in standard drafts right now. Fantasy success is all about hitting your first picks and finding value after round 4. I’m a cheap guy, and I like to pride myself on my ability to find bargains. Specifically, I like to consider myself a fast food connoisseur of sorts. I can work the dollar menu like no other. Recently, I was at Taco Bell with a friend, and we placed very different orders. I ordered a beefy frito burrito ($1.00), a habanero loaded griller ($1.00), a beefy 5-layer burrito ($1.79), and a free water. (I told you I’m cheap!) All in all, it cost me around $4.00. My friend got a number 12, which cost him $2 more than my meal. For one burrito and drink! Now it’s not that I don’t like the smothered beef burrito, I’ve tried one before and it’s pretty good. It’s just that I like the 3 things I got almost as much, and they were soooo much cheaper. Because of this, the number 12 would be on my “DO NOT BUY!” list if I was a fast food analyst. Not because I hate it, but because it simply is not good value. In the same way, I don’t hate Matt Forte, he’s an awesome RB that possesses one of the most unique skill sets in all of football. I do hate that you have to take him with a first round pick though, which puts him firmly on my “DO NOT DRAFT!” list.
Now assuming you haven’t quit reading this article to go get Taco Bell, let’s get started with the “DO NOT DRAFT!” picks. Matt Forte - Going in the first round, should be going in the third. Forte is going in the first round, ahead of all WR’s other than Antonio Brown, ahead of Gronk, and ahead of talented RB’s such as Jeremy Hill, LeSean McCoy, and Lamar Miller. This is simply ludicrous people! I know he is dependable. I know he was incredible last season, and broke the record for most receptions in a season for a RB. I get it. But I don’t draft based on what players did for me in the past. I draft based on players’ prospects for the upcoming season. And when you break down the numbers on Forte, I see regression coming. I don’t think this is the year he falls off the map, but I do think he takes a major step back from last year’s production, and here is why: Matt Forte has been a prolific pass catcher out of the backfield for the Bears the past two seasons, making him one of the most versatile and scary assignments for opposing defenses. Both those seasons Marc Trestman was the head coach for the Bears. He is now on to Baltimore. Let’s take a look at Forte’s numbers with Trestman and the three seasons prior to Trestman’s arrival: With Trestman: 17.34 carries per game, 88 catches per year, 1,890 total yards per season, 11 TD per season, 255 fantasy points per season Without Trestman: 16 carries per game, 49 catches per year, 1,512 total yards per season, 6.33 TD per season, 189.2 fantasy points per season Those point totals are based on ESPN standard scoring. If you were in a PPR league, his numbers with Trestman would be even more overwhelming. As you can tell, Forte’s numbers with Trestman are significantly better than they were without. His 189 points per season is still good, as it would have tied with Justin Forsett as the number 7 RB last season. So if you want to assume he returns to that level of production, then you can justify selecting him in the first round. But before we assume he’s going to return to that level let's examine a few more things:
Not convinced? Alright, I’ll keep going. Matt Forte could also see his monopoly of backfield touches slip away this year, as new Head Coach John Fox likes to use multiple backs. Obviously the situations are different; I’m not saying Fox is only gonna give Forte 55% of the carries this year. But it is just another negative factor to consider when projecting Forte’s potential this season, as shown here by NumberFire: (it'll be at the bottom if you're using our mobile site) Last season Forte totaled 368 touches, good for third in the NFL. That’s 51 more than Marshawn Lynch who people project to break down every year from overuse. It also blows “workhorse backs” Arian Foster, Eddie Lacy, Alfred Morris, and Frank Gore out of the water, exceeding their 2014 touches by 70, 80, 86, and 102 respectively. Forte also has 2,260 career touches, which is good for 4th most in the NFL behind Frank Gore, Marshawn Lynch, and Adrian Peterson. He only trails Lynch by 12 and AP by 2 though, and he’s coming off of a heavy workload while Peterson basically got a year to rest and refuel. Simply put, Forte has some serious tread on his tires. Additionally, the Bears traded away Brandon Marshall this offseason, and lost Kevin White for the year, so Chicago doesn’t exactly have the most intimidating group of WR after Alshon Jeffery. Teams will spend most weeks focusing on stopping the Bears’ ground game after the season Forte had in 2014. All in all, I find it very difficult to justify taking Forte anywhere near the first round. DO NOT DRAFT! Peyton Manning - Going in the third, should be going in the sixth. Peyton Manning is undoubtedly one of the best QB’s to ever play the game of football. But I’m telling you, you CANNOT draft Peyton where you’re going to have to to get him. I can’t even fathom the fact that he is going ahead of guys like Mike Evans, Justin Forsett, Mark Ingram, and Lamar Miller. If you’re not grabbing one of the elite QB early, then wait because you can find startable options in the 8th-12th round, and get elite position players in the third. Now this isn’t the only reason Manning makes my list, you’ll notice that Russell Wilson (ADP 27) isn’t on it. There are many warning signs to be aware of when examining Manning’s prospects this season. First off, Peyton’s health has to be a concern. I don’t care whether he says he’s used to it or not, it’s not a good thing when you don’t have feeling in your fingers. Manning also had a torn quad last year. Adam Schefter reported “The Broncos knew about the injury, but Manning did what he could to intentionally conceal the injury from as many people as he could." As a fantasy owner, you want your players to play through injuries if possible, but you never want to deal with teams that intentionally cover up injuries (ask Kevin White owners). Manning also has had several serious neck procedures done, and we all know how he gets noodle armed at the end of the season (Fantasy playoff time!!!) Another concern of mine is that even if Manning holds up health-wise, I don’t think he’ll get the volume to justify his draft spot. If you’ve followed Broncos’ offseason news, a lot of it has revolved around the Broncos making conscious efforts to limit Manning’s workload in order to preserve his health. The Broncos have not been shy about the fact that they’re going to emphasize the ground game this year. Also, the Broncos’ got rid of John Fox, whose teams ranked 11th and 12th in rushing attempts the past two seasons. They replaced him with Gary Kubiak who has had 10 seasons in which his team has been top 4 in rushing attempts. I still think Manning is one of the top QB’s in the game. I just don’t think he’s gonna be one of the top fantasy QB’s in the game. His team is doing everything they can to preserve his arm for the playoffs, and everyone seems to be on board with a more run-heavy approach. Broncos RB Juwan Thompson said, “It’s not all about passing and protections this year, we’re actually focusing on the running game as well. It’s a whole different coaching staff, so there’s been a lot more running than last year.” It’s not just the RB’s either. Demaryius Thomas said, “When everybody was saying they’re going to run the ball, I’m like, ‘I’m fine with that.’ It’s going to leave me one-on-one and probably open down the field a lot” I just don’t see Manning exceeding 500 passing attempts this season. Remember that Manning almost retired this offseason. He’s 39 freaking years old! He’ll do what he has to do to make sure the Broncos make the playoffs, but he’s not gonna be chucking it 659 times like in 2013. If you look at his seasons from 2005-2008, Manning averaged 520 passing attempts. I think his production during those years could provide a more accurate outlook on Manning this year: 4,046 yards, 29 TD, and 11 interceptions. That’s a productive QB that I’d feel comfortable drafting in the sixth round. Definitely not in the third though. DO NOT DRAFT! Jonathan Stewart - Going in the fourth, should be going in the fifth or sixth. I want to believe in Stewart. I really do; I feel bad for the guy. But at a certain point you just can’t trust him anymore. He has high enough upside that I’d take the plunge on him in the late fifth round and cross my fingers and hope he’d stay healthy. But history doesn’t provide me with much confidence that he will. He’s missed 20 out of a possible 48 games over the last three seasons! Per sportsinjurypredictor.com: (Great tool, highly reccomend) 2014 Leg Stewart pulled his hamstring just before training camp opened up. It kept him out for 2 weeks 2014 Knee Stewart pulled his MCL in week 3 and missed 3 games 2013 Knee In week 14 Stewart took a low hit from Saints CB Keenan Lewis at the end of a 16-yard catch and never returned. Steward tore his MCL and did not play again in 2013 2013 Ankle J-Stew had ankle surgery in the offseason which ruled him out of the start of 2013. 2012 Ankle Stewart sprained his ankle in a preseason game against the Jets. He missed 2 games 2012 Ankle Suffered a high ankle sprain and missed a further 4 games . Required surgery in the offseason to clean it out 2010 Heel Stewart underwent offseason surgery on both ankles and missed some of the practices. 2010 Heel Jonathan Stewart didn't participate in practice after aggravating his heel injury. Which caused him t o miss four games. 2010 Head Suffered a mild concussion sustained in a game against the Saints. He didn’t return to the game and later missed 2 more games. It’s not all about the injuries either. Coach Ron Rivera has said he wants another RB to step up so the Panthers can employ a two-back system again, along with limiting Stewart to 15 carries a game. Also, Carolina isn’t exactly in the best situation for RB production. While they’ve had success running the ball in the past, the Panthers’ O-Line is a weakness, and Cam Newton has no targets that instill confidence other than Greg Olsen. Teams will probably be stacking the box against Stewart. That is, if he can even manage to stay on the field. DO NOT DRAFT! Golden Tate - Going in the sixth, should be going in the eighth or ninth. Golden Tate is the perfect example of the smothered burrito I mentioned earlier. I really like Tate, he works hard and is an easy guy to root for. But he’s simply not worth a sixth round investment, unless you’re anticipating Calvin Johnson being hurt again this year. In weeks four through eight, when Megatron was limited or out, here was Tate’s line: 7.8 catches, 120 yards, and .6 TD per game. When Megatron played, Tate averaged 5.5 catches, 66.5 yards, and .09 TD per game. That’s simply not sixth round production. Julius Thomas - Going in the 9th, should be going in the 14th or 15th. I really don’t understand this one. I get that he’s coming off his second consecutive 12 TD season. That’s nice, but he’s no longer playing in Denver. Last season Thomas only averaged 37.6 yards per game on his way to a measly 489 yards. If you want to blame it on nagging injuries, that’s fine. Just look at 2013 when he only averaged 56.3 yards per game. Basically his fantasy production has been completely touchdown dependent, which you can get away with when you play for Peyton Manning. He doesn’t anymore though. I know that I wrote about how Peyton is declining earlier, but he can still play QB with his eyes closed better than Blake Bortles. To expect Julius Thomas to come even close to replicating his production in Denver is just illogical. He caught more TD’s last year than Bortles threw!!! While his yardage could improve in Jacksonville as the focal point of the offense, it seems extremely optimistic to expect more than 6 TD. Also, Thomas received 15 red zone targets last season. Jacksonville’s tight ends as a collective group were targeted 4 times in the red zone in 2014. Obviously the situation is horrible, going from Denver to Jacksonville, but that’s not my only concern with Thomas. Thomas has shown a consistent inability to stay on the field. Check out his injury history below. Per sportsinjurypredictor.com: 2015 Hand Thomas fractured his hand in the Jaguars opening preseason game. He missed the rest of the preseason 2014 Ankle Orange Julius sprained his ankle and missed 3 games 2013 Ankle Julius Thomas twisted his ankle badly against the Redskins in week 8 and did not return to the game. He was able to recover over the bye and made it back for week 10. 2013 Knee In week 11 Julius Thomas took a helmet to his knee and hyper extended it badly. He stayed in the game but missed the next 2 2011 Ankle Thomas missed the whole 2011 season with a High Ankle Sprain. It required surgery and resulted in a very quiet 2012 when he returned All in all, Thomas isn’t a bad talent. If everyone in your league reads this article and he drops to the 14th round, then feel free to take a gamble on him. Just know his ceiling is capped due to his situation, and his floor is extremely low due to his high injury risk and his inability to pile up catches and yardage. DO NOT DRAFT! Alfred Blue - Going in the 10th, should be going in the 14th. Blue's stock obviously went up with the Foster news. He's now worth drafting in standard leagues. He's in no way worth a tenth round pick though. Blue had opportunity last year to show what he could do as the featured back. He took that opportunity to post the lowest YPC out of all players last year, a putrid 3.1. While he will get the first crack at the starting job, he in no way owns the Texans backfield. I think Jonathan Grimes is a more talented runner, and they also have the TD vulturing Chris Polk. Also, the Texans aerial attack doesn't quite strike fear into opposing defenses with Hoyer at the helm. Don't expect Blue to have many running lanes against stacked defensive fronts. You also have to consider that when drafting Blue, you're drafting him to be a stop-gap player, as he won't be relevant come fantasy playoff time. Arian Foster isn't out all season. In the tenth round, I'm not taking a plodding back on a bad offense that won't be playing for me after week 8. You shouldn't either! DO NOT DRAFT! |