2015 DEEP SLEEPERS:
-Jagibbs23 August 25
Think back to last season. There were tons of players that seemed to just bust out of nowhere to take the league by storm. Some of the biggest names include Jeremy Hill, Justin Forsett, Odell Beckham, C.J. Anderson, Mike Evans, or DeAndre Hopkins. If you took a flier on some of these guys with the last picks in your draft, or picked them up off waivers, more than likely you were hoisting the championship trophy at the end of the season. Every year this happens, and while not all breakouts can be predicted, many can. Breakouts are all about two factors: Ability and Opportunity. This article is going to help you get a head start on the competition by highlighting players with lots of potential and great opportunity, so that this year it is you hoisting your league’s trophy!
In this article, we’re not just looking at someone you can take in the 7th round and get 3rd round value from. We’re digging deep. For whatever reason, every year at the end of the draft people lose interest and start drafting the first name they recognize, or drafting for humor (14th round?? Uhhhh give me Tim Tebow!) While this may get a couple laughs at the draft party, the savvy owner is scooping up potential breakouts. None of these players are guaranteed to be this year’s Odell, so don’t send me angry tweets when a player you took in the 16th round hasn’t become a household name by week 3. These are the players I have identified as having the best chance to turn into a starter for your team but are being taken as fourth or fifth string players. Here we go!
Name, Position, Team, ESPN Rank, ESPN ADP
David Johnson, RB, Arizona Cardinals, 121, 142
This isn’t technically a deeeeep sleeper in my opinion, but I love him so much I had to include him on this list. Breaking out in fantasy is about two things: opportunity and ability. Johnson is plentiful in both. A big, uber athletic back out of Northern Iowa, Johnson clearly passes the eye test as a combine “top performer” in the 40, bench press, vert, broad jump, and 3 cone drill. At 6’1” 224, Johnson finishes runs hard, but also has the natural soft hands and athletic ability of elite receiving threats at the RB position like LeVeon Bell or Matt Forte. Reports out of Cardinals practices say that Johnson cannot be covered: http://blog.azcardinals.com/2015/08/20/david-johnson-shows-receiving-skills/
In the Cardinal’s week 2 preseason game, Johnson put on a show against the Chargers, rushing 13 times for 66 yards, and catching two passes for 15 more yards. He spent time with both the first and second stringers. Just these things are enough to get owners excited about Johnson’s prospects this year. Couple that with the fact that he is playing behind one of the most fragile backs in the NFL, and David Johnson is primed to return big on the cheap investment required to get him at his ESPN ADP of 142. Here’s Andre Ellington’s injury history for those of you that aren’t familiar:
2014 - Pulled muscle in his foot/lower leg that limited him for most of the season
2014 - Hip pointer in week 13, put on the IR, missed the remaining 4 games
2013 - Pulled hamstring and couldn’t complete combine
2013 - Missed 1 game with concussion
2013 - Missed 1 game with knee injury
2011 - Ellington sprained his ankle and missed the game against Georgia Tech. The injury required ankle surgery in the offseason
2010 - Ellington tore a ligament in his foot that ended up causing a fracture in the Sesamoid bone and required surgery in to fix it.
*Credit to http://sportsinjurypredictor.com/ for injury history information
Brandon Coleman, WR, New Orleans Saints, 199, undrafted
Jimmy Who??? Brandon Coleman has the size and length to make Saints fans forget about the All-Pro TE if he plays to his potential.
While everyone else is targeting Brandin from New Orleans, I think Brandon with an “o” is where the real value is going to be found. Not that I don’t expect big things from Brandin Cooks this season, I just think Coleman is clearly the better value. He is still not being drafted in most standard leagues which is just mind blowing to me. All I heard out of Saints camp on Coleman was constant praise from Sean Payton and the rest of the coaching staff. Payton went as far as to name Coleman camp MVP. He seems to have clearly grabbed the third WR spot from Nick Toon, and that can be a very valuable thing in Drew Brees’ offense. Last season’s number 3, Kenny Stills, finished the year with 63 catches for 931 yards and 3 TD. Now consider the fact that red-zone monster Jimmy Graham is on to Seattle, and that Coleman is a 6’6” athletic freak. Would you really be surprised if Coleman posted a 800 yard, 6 TD season? I think that’s his floor if he remains the #3 WR. Now let’s examine his ceiling:
Most people project that the top 3 targets for the Saints will be Brandin Cooks, Marques Colston, and CJ Spiller. Cooks still hasn’t proven anything at the pro level, and is a small WR who has yet to show he can handle a heavy workload. Colston is now 32 years old and has seen his yards per game decline the past three seasons. CJ Spiller is an interesting weapon for Payton, but like Cooks, has serious injury concerns. If even one of those three underperforms or gets hurt, that means even more work for the 6’6” monster that runs a 4.5. The sky's the limit for Coleman. Grab him while you still can.
Roy Helu Jr., RB, Oakland Raiders, 162, undrafted
While there is plenty to love about Latavius Murray’s talent, he is very raw for someone being picked as high as he is. I’d much rather wait til the last two rounds and take a flier on Helu. It’s not that I dislike Murray, I just think Helu and Murray’s current ability level is a lot closer than people realize. First off, people like to point to Murray’s 5.2 YPC as if it is an indicator of things to come. You have to realize that 21% of his yards last year came on one run. If you take out his 90 yard scamper against the Chiefs, he averaged a very pedestrian 4.1 ypc. Helu had a low-key career year last season, solidifying himself as one of the league’s premier third-down talents. He caught 42 passes, and looked very explosive in his limited touches. He averaged 5.4 yards per carry and 11.4 per reception, both career highs. At worst, Helu will once again be an effective pass-catching back on a bad team - a role than can still be productive, as he’ll be on the field often. At best, Helu beats out the inexperienced Murray and shows off the promise he displayed last season. I’m not expecting him to become the every-down back, but for their comparative prices, give me Helu all day.
Cameron Artis-Payne, RB, Carolina Panthers, 167, undrafted
I was thrilled when I saw Artis-Payne fall to the Panthers. I loved watching him play at Auburn, and he has terrific opportunity now playing behind one of the most injury prone players in the NFL. Stewart is made of glass, and has consistently blown great opportunities over his career because of his inability to stay on the field. If Stewart goes down this year, I am confident he won’t get another opportunity. CAP has looked explosive this preseason, he broke a 30 yard run last week against the Dolphins. CAP has great balance, vision, and runs extremely hard for a runner of his size. If you are a Jonathan Stewart owner, you have to grab CAP at the end of the draft as a handcuff.
Marquess Wilson, WR, Chicago Bears, 207, undrafted
I can’t say it enough: sleeper potential is all about ability and opportunity. Wilson has tons of opportunity. After losing Brandon Marshall to free agency and Kevin White to injury, the Bears are in desperate need of someone to step up. Then you factor in that Alshon is still nursing an injury, and Trestman left this offseason, meaning Forte will certainly not be getting 100+ receptions again. Marquess is a talented young WR and his only real competition is the aging Eddie Royal. While I think Royal could be a decent source of cheap points early, I think Marquess ultimately has far more potential.
Corey “Philly” Brown, WR, Carolina Panthers, 238, undrafted
Opportunity is knocking in Carolina as well. Kelvin Benjamin is lost for the season, leaving Devin Funchess, Jerricho Cotchery, and Ted Ginn as Brown’s only competition for targets outside of Greg Olsen. Funchess is the one getting hyped up, but I think it could very well be Philly Brown that breaks out. Cotchery is a solid number 3 WR, but doesn’t have the potential that Brown does. Funchess has struggled consistently throughout his career with route running and drops. Brown has flashed his potential this preseason. He can line up anywhere on the field, and has much faster game speed than his combine numbers would indicate. I think Funchess will probably end up being the more productive of the two, but for their comparative prices, Brown is the Carolina WR you want this season.
Eric Ebron, TE, Detroit Lions, 277, 134
A former first round pick, some have already labeled Ebron as a bust after his disappointing rookie campaign. That should be music to your ears. Let people sleep on Ebron, while you reap the rewards. The knock on Ebron is his blocking, which is warranted. But we’re talking about fantasy, and as long as he can get on the field, EE should produce this season. Ebron is quite the burner for a TE and he has already said he is grasping the offense better this year and that the game has slowed down for him. In year two, I expect Ebron to take the next step and become a top 10 TE, which would be a good return for where you’ll be taking him.
Richard Rodgers, TE, Green Bay Packers, 278, 127
I liked Rodgers as a very deep sleeper prior to the Nelson injury, but now I have him a slight tier ahead of other late round TE such as Ebron, Eifert, and Josh Hill. Rodgers was a slight disappointment in his rookie season, but I expect him to see far more field time as a sophomore. He is simply a much better receiving option than Andrew Quarless. With plenty of targets to go around following the Jordy injury, expect the talented young TE to take a step forward this year, possibly cracking the top 8 TE. Considering ESPN has him ranked as the 26th TE, which would definitely qualify him as a sleeper.
Other options I think have sleeper potential:
QB:
Elisha Manning - Seriously, that's his name. Look it up. I don’t like Eli more than any other football fan. I know how annoying he is to watch. But he’s coming off one of the best statistical seasons of his career. He also has Victor Cruz and Rashad Jennings healthy again. I also think people are overlooking the impact Shane Vereen will have on this offense. Larry Donnell is continuing to progress. Eli has all the weapons at his disposal to have a breakout.
Carson Palmer - He was a top 10 QB before his injury last season. He has all his weapons back, and John Brown now has a year of production under his belt. David Johnson is also another weapon for him to utilize. Expect big things from this offense if Palmer stays healthy. Palmer isn’t even getting drafted in most leagues.
Jameis Winston - He’s been inconsistent this preseason, but I love his situation. He has a group of huge, athletic targets with ridiculous catching radiuses to reel in his sometimes inaccurate passes. The Bucs’ defense is so bad, that he’ll often find himself trailing, which results in more passes thrown, which results in more points. Also, he has two rushing TD this preseason. If he were to become a threat as a runner as well, he could be surprisingly effective in his rookie year.
RB:
Matt Jones - If you haven’t watched Jones run, you are missing out. This guy is a beast. People have compared him to Marshawn Lynch, and he has backed it up with his punishing running style this preseason. He has also shown good hands in preseason action. I think it takes an injury to the reliable Alfred Morris for him to be relevant, so this might not be the year Jones breaks out. Keep an eye on him though. He’s a must-own handcuff for Morris owners.$
Javorius “Buck” Allen - He’s looked better than Lorenzo Taliaferro, and seems to be tightening his grip on the #2 spot in the Ravens’ backfield. It would take an injury to Forsett for him to be relevant, but if it were to happen, Allen has the skills to be an effective runner behind a good Baltimore O-Line.
Josh Robinson - The Colts’ backfield is fairly crowded, but if Gore were to go down, I really think Robinson would be the one to emerge. He’s a patient runner that runs with power and has soft hands out of the backfield. He could become a valuable fantasy asset if he had the starting job in the Colts’ loaded offense.
WR:
Leonard Hankerson&Justin Hardy - One of these two WR should emerge as the go to guy in the slot for Atlanta. Both have shined at times this preseason, with Hankerson being the more impressive. Between the two, Hardy has more upside. Roddy is clearly deteriorating, Julio has been injury prone in the past, and Harry Douglas left for Tennessee this offseason. There are targets to go around.
Ty Montgomery&Jeff Janis - With the unfortunate Jordy Nelson news, both Montgomery and Janis’ stock skyrocketed. I think Montgomery is the more talented WR, but keep an eye on both of them, as I don’t expect Davante Adams to replicate Jordy’s production.
TE:
Austin Seferian-Jenkins - Physical freak in an improving offense, ASF has all the tools to be a top 5 TE. I worry that it might be another year before Jameis and him realize their full potential though.
Maxx Williams - Drafted in the second round, Williams has shown off impressive wheels and hands this preseason. With Breshad Perriman unable to practice the last few weeks, Maxx could definitely make some noise in an offense in need of play-makers outside of Forsett.
Clive Walford - Looked great in OTAs and training camp, but has recently been set back by an injury. Prior to injury, was running with first team offense. Could definitely supplant Mychal Rivera as the pass catching TE on an up-and-coming offense.
Gavin Escobar - Looked great in week 1 preseason. If Witten were to miss time, Escobar is a gifted receiver. Outside of an injury, only ownable in dynasty leagues.
In this article, we’re not just looking at someone you can take in the 7th round and get 3rd round value from. We’re digging deep. For whatever reason, every year at the end of the draft people lose interest and start drafting the first name they recognize, or drafting for humor (14th round?? Uhhhh give me Tim Tebow!) While this may get a couple laughs at the draft party, the savvy owner is scooping up potential breakouts. None of these players are guaranteed to be this year’s Odell, so don’t send me angry tweets when a player you took in the 16th round hasn’t become a household name by week 3. These are the players I have identified as having the best chance to turn into a starter for your team but are being taken as fourth or fifth string players. Here we go!
Name, Position, Team, ESPN Rank, ESPN ADP
David Johnson, RB, Arizona Cardinals, 121, 142
This isn’t technically a deeeeep sleeper in my opinion, but I love him so much I had to include him on this list. Breaking out in fantasy is about two things: opportunity and ability. Johnson is plentiful in both. A big, uber athletic back out of Northern Iowa, Johnson clearly passes the eye test as a combine “top performer” in the 40, bench press, vert, broad jump, and 3 cone drill. At 6’1” 224, Johnson finishes runs hard, but also has the natural soft hands and athletic ability of elite receiving threats at the RB position like LeVeon Bell or Matt Forte. Reports out of Cardinals practices say that Johnson cannot be covered: http://blog.azcardinals.com/2015/08/20/david-johnson-shows-receiving-skills/
In the Cardinal’s week 2 preseason game, Johnson put on a show against the Chargers, rushing 13 times for 66 yards, and catching two passes for 15 more yards. He spent time with both the first and second stringers. Just these things are enough to get owners excited about Johnson’s prospects this year. Couple that with the fact that he is playing behind one of the most fragile backs in the NFL, and David Johnson is primed to return big on the cheap investment required to get him at his ESPN ADP of 142. Here’s Andre Ellington’s injury history for those of you that aren’t familiar:
2014 - Pulled muscle in his foot/lower leg that limited him for most of the season
2014 - Hip pointer in week 13, put on the IR, missed the remaining 4 games
2013 - Pulled hamstring and couldn’t complete combine
2013 - Missed 1 game with concussion
2013 - Missed 1 game with knee injury
2011 - Ellington sprained his ankle and missed the game against Georgia Tech. The injury required ankle surgery in the offseason
2010 - Ellington tore a ligament in his foot that ended up causing a fracture in the Sesamoid bone and required surgery in to fix it.
*Credit to http://sportsinjurypredictor.com/ for injury history information
Brandon Coleman, WR, New Orleans Saints, 199, undrafted
Jimmy Who??? Brandon Coleman has the size and length to make Saints fans forget about the All-Pro TE if he plays to his potential.
While everyone else is targeting Brandin from New Orleans, I think Brandon with an “o” is where the real value is going to be found. Not that I don’t expect big things from Brandin Cooks this season, I just think Coleman is clearly the better value. He is still not being drafted in most standard leagues which is just mind blowing to me. All I heard out of Saints camp on Coleman was constant praise from Sean Payton and the rest of the coaching staff. Payton went as far as to name Coleman camp MVP. He seems to have clearly grabbed the third WR spot from Nick Toon, and that can be a very valuable thing in Drew Brees’ offense. Last season’s number 3, Kenny Stills, finished the year with 63 catches for 931 yards and 3 TD. Now consider the fact that red-zone monster Jimmy Graham is on to Seattle, and that Coleman is a 6’6” athletic freak. Would you really be surprised if Coleman posted a 800 yard, 6 TD season? I think that’s his floor if he remains the #3 WR. Now let’s examine his ceiling:
Most people project that the top 3 targets for the Saints will be Brandin Cooks, Marques Colston, and CJ Spiller. Cooks still hasn’t proven anything at the pro level, and is a small WR who has yet to show he can handle a heavy workload. Colston is now 32 years old and has seen his yards per game decline the past three seasons. CJ Spiller is an interesting weapon for Payton, but like Cooks, has serious injury concerns. If even one of those three underperforms or gets hurt, that means even more work for the 6’6” monster that runs a 4.5. The sky's the limit for Coleman. Grab him while you still can.
Roy Helu Jr., RB, Oakland Raiders, 162, undrafted
While there is plenty to love about Latavius Murray’s talent, he is very raw for someone being picked as high as he is. I’d much rather wait til the last two rounds and take a flier on Helu. It’s not that I dislike Murray, I just think Helu and Murray’s current ability level is a lot closer than people realize. First off, people like to point to Murray’s 5.2 YPC as if it is an indicator of things to come. You have to realize that 21% of his yards last year came on one run. If you take out his 90 yard scamper against the Chiefs, he averaged a very pedestrian 4.1 ypc. Helu had a low-key career year last season, solidifying himself as one of the league’s premier third-down talents. He caught 42 passes, and looked very explosive in his limited touches. He averaged 5.4 yards per carry and 11.4 per reception, both career highs. At worst, Helu will once again be an effective pass-catching back on a bad team - a role than can still be productive, as he’ll be on the field often. At best, Helu beats out the inexperienced Murray and shows off the promise he displayed last season. I’m not expecting him to become the every-down back, but for their comparative prices, give me Helu all day.
Cameron Artis-Payne, RB, Carolina Panthers, 167, undrafted
I was thrilled when I saw Artis-Payne fall to the Panthers. I loved watching him play at Auburn, and he has terrific opportunity now playing behind one of the most injury prone players in the NFL. Stewart is made of glass, and has consistently blown great opportunities over his career because of his inability to stay on the field. If Stewart goes down this year, I am confident he won’t get another opportunity. CAP has looked explosive this preseason, he broke a 30 yard run last week against the Dolphins. CAP has great balance, vision, and runs extremely hard for a runner of his size. If you are a Jonathan Stewart owner, you have to grab CAP at the end of the draft as a handcuff.
Marquess Wilson, WR, Chicago Bears, 207, undrafted
I can’t say it enough: sleeper potential is all about ability and opportunity. Wilson has tons of opportunity. After losing Brandon Marshall to free agency and Kevin White to injury, the Bears are in desperate need of someone to step up. Then you factor in that Alshon is still nursing an injury, and Trestman left this offseason, meaning Forte will certainly not be getting 100+ receptions again. Marquess is a talented young WR and his only real competition is the aging Eddie Royal. While I think Royal could be a decent source of cheap points early, I think Marquess ultimately has far more potential.
Corey “Philly” Brown, WR, Carolina Panthers, 238, undrafted
Opportunity is knocking in Carolina as well. Kelvin Benjamin is lost for the season, leaving Devin Funchess, Jerricho Cotchery, and Ted Ginn as Brown’s only competition for targets outside of Greg Olsen. Funchess is the one getting hyped up, but I think it could very well be Philly Brown that breaks out. Cotchery is a solid number 3 WR, but doesn’t have the potential that Brown does. Funchess has struggled consistently throughout his career with route running and drops. Brown has flashed his potential this preseason. He can line up anywhere on the field, and has much faster game speed than his combine numbers would indicate. I think Funchess will probably end up being the more productive of the two, but for their comparative prices, Brown is the Carolina WR you want this season.
Eric Ebron, TE, Detroit Lions, 277, 134
A former first round pick, some have already labeled Ebron as a bust after his disappointing rookie campaign. That should be music to your ears. Let people sleep on Ebron, while you reap the rewards. The knock on Ebron is his blocking, which is warranted. But we’re talking about fantasy, and as long as he can get on the field, EE should produce this season. Ebron is quite the burner for a TE and he has already said he is grasping the offense better this year and that the game has slowed down for him. In year two, I expect Ebron to take the next step and become a top 10 TE, which would be a good return for where you’ll be taking him.
Richard Rodgers, TE, Green Bay Packers, 278, 127
I liked Rodgers as a very deep sleeper prior to the Nelson injury, but now I have him a slight tier ahead of other late round TE such as Ebron, Eifert, and Josh Hill. Rodgers was a slight disappointment in his rookie season, but I expect him to see far more field time as a sophomore. He is simply a much better receiving option than Andrew Quarless. With plenty of targets to go around following the Jordy injury, expect the talented young TE to take a step forward this year, possibly cracking the top 8 TE. Considering ESPN has him ranked as the 26th TE, which would definitely qualify him as a sleeper.
Other options I think have sleeper potential:
QB:
Elisha Manning - Seriously, that's his name. Look it up. I don’t like Eli more than any other football fan. I know how annoying he is to watch. But he’s coming off one of the best statistical seasons of his career. He also has Victor Cruz and Rashad Jennings healthy again. I also think people are overlooking the impact Shane Vereen will have on this offense. Larry Donnell is continuing to progress. Eli has all the weapons at his disposal to have a breakout.
Carson Palmer - He was a top 10 QB before his injury last season. He has all his weapons back, and John Brown now has a year of production under his belt. David Johnson is also another weapon for him to utilize. Expect big things from this offense if Palmer stays healthy. Palmer isn’t even getting drafted in most leagues.
Jameis Winston - He’s been inconsistent this preseason, but I love his situation. He has a group of huge, athletic targets with ridiculous catching radiuses to reel in his sometimes inaccurate passes. The Bucs’ defense is so bad, that he’ll often find himself trailing, which results in more passes thrown, which results in more points. Also, he has two rushing TD this preseason. If he were to become a threat as a runner as well, he could be surprisingly effective in his rookie year.
RB:
Matt Jones - If you haven’t watched Jones run, you are missing out. This guy is a beast. People have compared him to Marshawn Lynch, and he has backed it up with his punishing running style this preseason. He has also shown good hands in preseason action. I think it takes an injury to the reliable Alfred Morris for him to be relevant, so this might not be the year Jones breaks out. Keep an eye on him though. He’s a must-own handcuff for Morris owners.$
Javorius “Buck” Allen - He’s looked better than Lorenzo Taliaferro, and seems to be tightening his grip on the #2 spot in the Ravens’ backfield. It would take an injury to Forsett for him to be relevant, but if it were to happen, Allen has the skills to be an effective runner behind a good Baltimore O-Line.
Josh Robinson - The Colts’ backfield is fairly crowded, but if Gore were to go down, I really think Robinson would be the one to emerge. He’s a patient runner that runs with power and has soft hands out of the backfield. He could become a valuable fantasy asset if he had the starting job in the Colts’ loaded offense.
WR:
Leonard Hankerson&Justin Hardy - One of these two WR should emerge as the go to guy in the slot for Atlanta. Both have shined at times this preseason, with Hankerson being the more impressive. Between the two, Hardy has more upside. Roddy is clearly deteriorating, Julio has been injury prone in the past, and Harry Douglas left for Tennessee this offseason. There are targets to go around.
Ty Montgomery&Jeff Janis - With the unfortunate Jordy Nelson news, both Montgomery and Janis’ stock skyrocketed. I think Montgomery is the more talented WR, but keep an eye on both of them, as I don’t expect Davante Adams to replicate Jordy’s production.
TE:
Austin Seferian-Jenkins - Physical freak in an improving offense, ASF has all the tools to be a top 5 TE. I worry that it might be another year before Jameis and him realize their full potential though.
Maxx Williams - Drafted in the second round, Williams has shown off impressive wheels and hands this preseason. With Breshad Perriman unable to practice the last few weeks, Maxx could definitely make some noise in an offense in need of play-makers outside of Forsett.
Clive Walford - Looked great in OTAs and training camp, but has recently been set back by an injury. Prior to injury, was running with first team offense. Could definitely supplant Mychal Rivera as the pass catching TE on an up-and-coming offense.
Gavin Escobar - Looked great in week 1 preseason. If Witten were to miss time, Escobar is a gifted receiver. Outside of an injury, only ownable in dynasty leagues.