NBA DraftKings Picks 11/21 (Usage Rate Edition)
@Thehumnraindlay November 21
Tonight‘s six game slate is ideal for DFS; the player pool is small enough to analyze all of the available options, but big enough to get creative and differentiate ourselves from the rest of the field. I am taking a little different approach tonight and going to break down players by position focusing on Usage Rate, also know as Usage Percentage. Usage Rate is defined as an estimate of the percentage of team plays used by a player while he is on the floor. Simply put, the more a player touches the ball on each of his team's possessions the higher his usage will be. Our goal is to find players that are capable of putting up a big number to help us take down a GPP. The higher a player's usage rate the more likely he is to exceed value. To provide context regarding usage, let's look at Russell Westbrook.
We all know Westbrook is an animal when he is on the court, but even more so when Durant is not on the floor. For the season Westbrook’s usage rate with Durant is 34.0, but without Durant it is a ludicrous 39.4. Now that we have our ceiling let's see how everyone else stacks up. I am going to give you three players from each position. One from the upper tier, above $8000, one from the middle tier, $5000-$8000 and one from the value tier, below $5000.
I am focusing on players from the main 4pm slate so the Sacramento vs Orlando game is not being considered. All Pricing is from DraftKings.
Point Guard:
I am going to cheat a little right off the bat because tonight there is only one point guard priced above $8000. In order to give you an option for the upper tier I am including the next guy on the list as well. So now our choice is between John Wall ($8600) and Reggie Jackson ($7600). I am going to save the $1000 and roll with Reggie.
Reggie Jackson vs Washington ($7600) - Jackson is a shoot first point guard as evidenced by his 17 shot attempts per game. He pushes the pace and prefers to drive to the hoop as opposed to settling for jump shots. On the season Jackson is averaging 32.2 minutes per game, 36.0 DK points per game and has a high usage rate of 31.0.
Dennis Schroder vs Cleveland ($5600) - As of now Teague is questionable for tonight's game and Bazemore is out. On the season Schroder is averaging 24.6 minutes per game, 24.2 DK point per game and has a usage rate of 25.5. If Teague is ruled out tonight Schroder is a plug and play, but even if Teague is active I still like the play.
Matthew Dellavedova vs Atlanta ($4100) - Mo Williams is out tonight and Dellavedova should be starting for the second game in a row. He responded quite nicely last game putting up 26.75 DK points and got almost 40 minutes of playing time. On the season he comes in with a fairly low usage rate of 14.6, but his increased playing time should cause that number to rise. A rise in usage directly leads to increased scoring opportunities.
Shooting Guard:
James Harden vs Knicks ($10200) - This is a no brainer for me. Dwight Howard played last night which means he will most likely sit out tonight which is the routine he has been following since the start of the season. Harden and the Rockets struggled to score points last night on the road against a tough Grizzlies team. Tonight they are back home with a projected team total of 103. In the four games Harden has played with Howard inactive he is averaging 40 minutes a game, 52.5 DK points per game and a high usage rate of 34.0. Harden showed us he can produce at an elite level when he dropped 82.5 DK points two games ago. Tonight he rewards us again with another big outing.
Dwyane Wade vs Philadelphia ($6400) - Philadelphia has not won a game all year and I don't see that changing tonight . Miami is favored by 14 and should win fairly easily, but if Philly is able to keep it somewhat close for three quarters, Wade will get his normal allotment of minutes and produce another solid game for us. On the season Wade is averaging 29 minutes per game, 31 DK points per game and has a nice usage rate of 31.3.
J.R. Smith vs Atlanta ($4400) - I will reiterate what I said two days ago about Smith...He is NOT a great real life basketball player. His defense is suspect if not completely invisible and his shot selection is always highly questionable. With that being said we don't care about his defense and the more shots he takes the better. In his last three games Smith has played 50, 36 and 39 minutes with a usage rate of 14.9. In those games he has averaged 12 shots per game and over half of them have been three pointers. With the 0.5 bonus for three pointers made on DK and his explosive upside if he gets hot from deep Smith is one of my favorite cheap GPP plays.
Small Forward:
Finally we have a tough decision to make. For once small forward is loaded with top tier options, but for me the decision is easy.
LeBron James vs Atlanta ($10100) - LBJ has not shown any signs of slowing down this season and his coach has not shown any signs of reducing his minutes. LeBron has played at least 33 minutes and scored at least 40 DK points in every game so far this season. Further cementing his must play staus is the fact that Mo WIlliams and Timofey Mozgov are out for tonight. For the season LeBron’s usage sits at a very respectable 33.3, but per NBAwowy.com his usage rate spikes to 37.0 when Mo and Mozgov are off the court. That is as close as anyone gets to Westbrook and we all know Westy is a triple double threat every night, but don't forget so is LeBron.
Marcus Morris vs Washington ($6100) - Marcus Morris has played less than 35 minutes ONCE all season. He is averaging 37.4 minutes per game, 28.9 DK points per game and has a usage rate of 19.6. Combine that with Washington’s bottom five defense against the SF position and you have a prime spot for Morris to have another great game.
Robert Covington @ Miami ($4500) - We are taking a flyer with this pick. Covington is playing his fifth game since coming back from a knee injury that kept him out to start the season. He has not seen more than 25 minutes in any one game, but continues to start and gets his money's worth while he is out there. He has fired up 37 shots even though he has only been on the court for a total of 88 minutes. To make things even better he has a fantastic usage rate of 27.9 which gives us a lot of upside is his limited time. *Should Covington sit this game out for some reason Jeff Green is an easy pivot for the same price.
Power Forward:
Kevin Love vs Atlanta ($8100) - Kevin Love is another guy who will benefit from the absence of Mo Williams and Mozgov. There will be a few extra shots and rebounds coming his way and he should see a slight uptick in minutes. For the season Love is averaging 34.4 minutes per game, 40 DK points per game and has a usage rate of 24.7. Much like LeBron, Love sees his usage jump without Mo and Mozgov. Per NBAwowy.com Love’s usage rate goes up to 28.0 with both of those guys off the court.
Zach Randolph @ San Antonio ($6200) - This is simply a case of a player being too cheap. For the season Randolph is averaging 30 minutes per game, 29.2 DK points per game and has a usage rate of 24.1. He did miss last night’s game with an injury and is questionable for tonight, but as long as he is active for this game he is a great play. If he does indeed miss the game Chris Bosh is a very viable option against a Philly team that ranks dead last is defense against PF’s.
Tristan Thompson vs Atlanta ($4800) - I know, another Cleveland guy, but this is an injury replacement play. During Cleveland’s last game Timofey Mozgov got hurt and Thompson was the direct beneficiary. In only 25 minutes of action he recorded a double double and should have a great chance to do so again tonight. On the season Atlanta ranks in the bottom 10 in defense vs position for both power forwards and centers. So far this season Thompson’s usage rate is 12.4, but look for that to rise tonight with increased playing time.
Center:
Hassan Whiteside vs Philadelphia ($8300) - Andre Drummond is having a great season but tonight I am taking the discount and rolling with Whiteside as my favorite high end option. I understand your concerns of reduced minutes for Whiteside tonight with the high point spread and blowout potential, but let me ease your worries. On the season Whiteside is averaging only 28.5 minutes per game but is turning that into 40 DK points per game, an insane average of 1.4 DK points per minute. Philly also ranks in the bottom 10 in defense vs the center position. On the season Whiteside’s usage rate is 22.5 and against an overmatched Philly front line he should feast tonight.
Al Horford @ Cleveland ($7000) - We’ve already talked about both of Cleveland’s big men being in good spots to thrive tonight. All that means is Altanta’s bigs are bad on defense. This does not take away from the fact that they are highly skilled on the offensive end. On the season Horford is averaging 31.5 minutes per game, 35.6 DK points per game and has a usage rate of 23.2. He has already attempted 50 three pointers on the year, which is an added bonus for a big man.
Clint Capela vs New York Knicks ($4700) - The value options at center tonight are not fantastic, but Capela is the most intriguing. In the 4 games Capela has played without Dwight Howard he is averaging 22 minutes per game, 27 DK points per game and has a usage rate of 15.6. Same theory applies with Capela as it did for Harden. When Howard is out both players see increased minutes and usage.
Good luck tonight and keep your eyes and ears out for breaking news. The @FF_Underground account will be unable to answer NBA questions leading up to tonight’s games, but I will be sending out injury updates throughout the day via twitter. If you have any questions hit me up @thehumnraindlay.
We all know Westbrook is an animal when he is on the court, but even more so when Durant is not on the floor. For the season Westbrook’s usage rate with Durant is 34.0, but without Durant it is a ludicrous 39.4. Now that we have our ceiling let's see how everyone else stacks up. I am going to give you three players from each position. One from the upper tier, above $8000, one from the middle tier, $5000-$8000 and one from the value tier, below $5000.
I am focusing on players from the main 4pm slate so the Sacramento vs Orlando game is not being considered. All Pricing is from DraftKings.
Point Guard:
I am going to cheat a little right off the bat because tonight there is only one point guard priced above $8000. In order to give you an option for the upper tier I am including the next guy on the list as well. So now our choice is between John Wall ($8600) and Reggie Jackson ($7600). I am going to save the $1000 and roll with Reggie.
Reggie Jackson vs Washington ($7600) - Jackson is a shoot first point guard as evidenced by his 17 shot attempts per game. He pushes the pace and prefers to drive to the hoop as opposed to settling for jump shots. On the season Jackson is averaging 32.2 minutes per game, 36.0 DK points per game and has a high usage rate of 31.0.
Dennis Schroder vs Cleveland ($5600) - As of now Teague is questionable for tonight's game and Bazemore is out. On the season Schroder is averaging 24.6 minutes per game, 24.2 DK point per game and has a usage rate of 25.5. If Teague is ruled out tonight Schroder is a plug and play, but even if Teague is active I still like the play.
Matthew Dellavedova vs Atlanta ($4100) - Mo Williams is out tonight and Dellavedova should be starting for the second game in a row. He responded quite nicely last game putting up 26.75 DK points and got almost 40 minutes of playing time. On the season he comes in with a fairly low usage rate of 14.6, but his increased playing time should cause that number to rise. A rise in usage directly leads to increased scoring opportunities.
Shooting Guard:
James Harden vs Knicks ($10200) - This is a no brainer for me. Dwight Howard played last night which means he will most likely sit out tonight which is the routine he has been following since the start of the season. Harden and the Rockets struggled to score points last night on the road against a tough Grizzlies team. Tonight they are back home with a projected team total of 103. In the four games Harden has played with Howard inactive he is averaging 40 minutes a game, 52.5 DK points per game and a high usage rate of 34.0. Harden showed us he can produce at an elite level when he dropped 82.5 DK points two games ago. Tonight he rewards us again with another big outing.
Dwyane Wade vs Philadelphia ($6400) - Philadelphia has not won a game all year and I don't see that changing tonight . Miami is favored by 14 and should win fairly easily, but if Philly is able to keep it somewhat close for three quarters, Wade will get his normal allotment of minutes and produce another solid game for us. On the season Wade is averaging 29 minutes per game, 31 DK points per game and has a nice usage rate of 31.3.
J.R. Smith vs Atlanta ($4400) - I will reiterate what I said two days ago about Smith...He is NOT a great real life basketball player. His defense is suspect if not completely invisible and his shot selection is always highly questionable. With that being said we don't care about his defense and the more shots he takes the better. In his last three games Smith has played 50, 36 and 39 minutes with a usage rate of 14.9. In those games he has averaged 12 shots per game and over half of them have been three pointers. With the 0.5 bonus for three pointers made on DK and his explosive upside if he gets hot from deep Smith is one of my favorite cheap GPP plays.
Small Forward:
Finally we have a tough decision to make. For once small forward is loaded with top tier options, but for me the decision is easy.
LeBron James vs Atlanta ($10100) - LBJ has not shown any signs of slowing down this season and his coach has not shown any signs of reducing his minutes. LeBron has played at least 33 minutes and scored at least 40 DK points in every game so far this season. Further cementing his must play staus is the fact that Mo WIlliams and Timofey Mozgov are out for tonight. For the season LeBron’s usage sits at a very respectable 33.3, but per NBAwowy.com his usage rate spikes to 37.0 when Mo and Mozgov are off the court. That is as close as anyone gets to Westbrook and we all know Westy is a triple double threat every night, but don't forget so is LeBron.
Marcus Morris vs Washington ($6100) - Marcus Morris has played less than 35 minutes ONCE all season. He is averaging 37.4 minutes per game, 28.9 DK points per game and has a usage rate of 19.6. Combine that with Washington’s bottom five defense against the SF position and you have a prime spot for Morris to have another great game.
Robert Covington @ Miami ($4500) - We are taking a flyer with this pick. Covington is playing his fifth game since coming back from a knee injury that kept him out to start the season. He has not seen more than 25 minutes in any one game, but continues to start and gets his money's worth while he is out there. He has fired up 37 shots even though he has only been on the court for a total of 88 minutes. To make things even better he has a fantastic usage rate of 27.9 which gives us a lot of upside is his limited time. *Should Covington sit this game out for some reason Jeff Green is an easy pivot for the same price.
Power Forward:
Kevin Love vs Atlanta ($8100) - Kevin Love is another guy who will benefit from the absence of Mo Williams and Mozgov. There will be a few extra shots and rebounds coming his way and he should see a slight uptick in minutes. For the season Love is averaging 34.4 minutes per game, 40 DK points per game and has a usage rate of 24.7. Much like LeBron, Love sees his usage jump without Mo and Mozgov. Per NBAwowy.com Love’s usage rate goes up to 28.0 with both of those guys off the court.
Zach Randolph @ San Antonio ($6200) - This is simply a case of a player being too cheap. For the season Randolph is averaging 30 minutes per game, 29.2 DK points per game and has a usage rate of 24.1. He did miss last night’s game with an injury and is questionable for tonight, but as long as he is active for this game he is a great play. If he does indeed miss the game Chris Bosh is a very viable option against a Philly team that ranks dead last is defense against PF’s.
Tristan Thompson vs Atlanta ($4800) - I know, another Cleveland guy, but this is an injury replacement play. During Cleveland’s last game Timofey Mozgov got hurt and Thompson was the direct beneficiary. In only 25 minutes of action he recorded a double double and should have a great chance to do so again tonight. On the season Atlanta ranks in the bottom 10 in defense vs position for both power forwards and centers. So far this season Thompson’s usage rate is 12.4, but look for that to rise tonight with increased playing time.
Center:
Hassan Whiteside vs Philadelphia ($8300) - Andre Drummond is having a great season but tonight I am taking the discount and rolling with Whiteside as my favorite high end option. I understand your concerns of reduced minutes for Whiteside tonight with the high point spread and blowout potential, but let me ease your worries. On the season Whiteside is averaging only 28.5 minutes per game but is turning that into 40 DK points per game, an insane average of 1.4 DK points per minute. Philly also ranks in the bottom 10 in defense vs the center position. On the season Whiteside’s usage rate is 22.5 and against an overmatched Philly front line he should feast tonight.
Al Horford @ Cleveland ($7000) - We’ve already talked about both of Cleveland’s big men being in good spots to thrive tonight. All that means is Altanta’s bigs are bad on defense. This does not take away from the fact that they are highly skilled on the offensive end. On the season Horford is averaging 31.5 minutes per game, 35.6 DK points per game and has a usage rate of 23.2. He has already attempted 50 three pointers on the year, which is an added bonus for a big man.
Clint Capela vs New York Knicks ($4700) - The value options at center tonight are not fantastic, but Capela is the most intriguing. In the 4 games Capela has played without Dwight Howard he is averaging 22 minutes per game, 27 DK points per game and has a usage rate of 15.6. Same theory applies with Capela as it did for Harden. When Howard is out both players see increased minutes and usage.
Good luck tonight and keep your eyes and ears out for breaking news. The @FF_Underground account will be unable to answer NBA questions leading up to tonight’s games, but I will be sending out injury updates throughout the day via twitter. If you have any questions hit me up @thehumnraindlay.