2015: Andy Dalton's Breakout Year
@IBiggs15 September 26
In today’s NFL it’s all about the quarterback. More guys have thrown for 4,000 yards the past few seasons than I can remember, and the rules are geared for offenses to pass for big yardage. While everyone jumps on the “elite” quarterbacks in fantasy, the best values are generally found with guys who are a little off the radar. Andy Dalton gets a bad reputation in fantasy due to his inconsistency and lackluster performance in playoff games, but he has never been lower than a top 20 QB. His lowest finish was last year when he was the 18th QB with a team littered with injuries at receiver and tight end the entire year. When he had a healthy arsenal at his disposal in 2012, Dalton finished 12th among QB’s, while he finished as the 5th ranked QB in fantasy in 2013 with almost 4,300 yards. I believe Andy Dalton is going to be a top 10 fantasy QB this year.
Through two games this season, Andy Dalton is on track for 4,000 yards and has career highs in yards per completion and completion percentage, along with zero interceptions. My prediction is that Dalton will pick up the pace and get a career high in yards because he has all of his receivers back from the healthy 2013 squad (i.e. Green, Sanu, and Jones). The Bengals also now have a running back that makes defenses honor the run and put more men in the box, in Jeremy Hill. Hill's rushing ability opens things up even more for the passing game. Dalton also has Giovanni Bernard, who is one of the better pass catching backs in the league.
Marvin Jones missed most of 2014, but scored 10 touchdowns in 2013. While Jones is unlikely to duplicate that number, he is someone who defenses must respect. The player who might have the most influence on Dalton’s career year in 2015 is Tyler Eifert. Eifert is easily the best tight end Dalton has played with. This should lead to more passing touchdowns, as he is incredibly difficult to cover, especially in the red zone where he already has 3 touchdowns. With the multiple options Andy Dalton has, I believe he will continue to evolve into a quarterback that spreads the ball to his receivers, a trait seen in many top quarterbacks. This should lead to fewer interceptions due to fewer forced throws. Offensive line consistency was also a weakness of the Bengals in previous seasons, but this year Dalton has yet to be sacked. This makes it easier for Dalton to make good decisions because he is not under constant pressure.
One stat that I like to look at when it comes to quarterbacks being good fantasy options is their TD% (passing TD’s divided by passing attempts). Dalton’s career high over a season is 5.6%, but this year he is on pace for an 8.3 TD%. This means that almost 10% of Dalton’s throws are going for touchdowns, and while that is going to be extremely difficult to sustain, it shows that Dalton is making good decisions to manage the offense. A concern many have about the Bengals is that they have the second ranked strength of schedule in the league. I took a look at the schedule, and the main games of concern are against the Bills, Seahawks, Cardinals, and Broncos. The rest of the schedule is more favorable, as they will be seeing teams like the Steelers, Browns, and 49ers. While Dalton has a few tough matchups, there are many good matchups which Dalton can certainly exploit. Dalton faced a Chargers team with a good secondary, and he put up 214 yards and 3 touchdowns. The Chargers do not have the most fearsome defensive line in football, but the fact that Dalton passed at will on their secondary is still a good sign.
Here’s a fun fact for you: Andy Dalton has more passing yards than Aaron Rodgers right now. By no means will he finish the season with more yards, but that is an indication that he is scoring close to the “elite” QB’s. Do you need any other reasons to give this guy a shot?
Right now Dalton is the 7th ranked passer in standard fantasy leagues, and he is the 23rd highest priced QB on DraftKings at $5,700. With Dalton in line to play the Ravens this week, he should be in at least one of your lineups. In case you missed it, Derek Carr just shredded the Ravens for 351 yards and 3 TD’s. Dalton is a better QB than Carr. I am playing Dalton this week because he is an amazing value and could certainly put up 30 points (over five times value) against Baltimore.
Dalton is owned in a meager 37% of ESPN fantasy leagues, so season long owners need to pick him up with all of the underperforming and injured quarterbacks throughout the league. With Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, and Tony Romo well outside of the top 10 right now, the door is wide open for Dalton to be a top ten quarterback this year. He should be deployed without hesitation this week in both season long and DFS leagues while you can still get him for an amazing value.
Through two games this season, Andy Dalton is on track for 4,000 yards and has career highs in yards per completion and completion percentage, along with zero interceptions. My prediction is that Dalton will pick up the pace and get a career high in yards because he has all of his receivers back from the healthy 2013 squad (i.e. Green, Sanu, and Jones). The Bengals also now have a running back that makes defenses honor the run and put more men in the box, in Jeremy Hill. Hill's rushing ability opens things up even more for the passing game. Dalton also has Giovanni Bernard, who is one of the better pass catching backs in the league.
Marvin Jones missed most of 2014, but scored 10 touchdowns in 2013. While Jones is unlikely to duplicate that number, he is someone who defenses must respect. The player who might have the most influence on Dalton’s career year in 2015 is Tyler Eifert. Eifert is easily the best tight end Dalton has played with. This should lead to more passing touchdowns, as he is incredibly difficult to cover, especially in the red zone where he already has 3 touchdowns. With the multiple options Andy Dalton has, I believe he will continue to evolve into a quarterback that spreads the ball to his receivers, a trait seen in many top quarterbacks. This should lead to fewer interceptions due to fewer forced throws. Offensive line consistency was also a weakness of the Bengals in previous seasons, but this year Dalton has yet to be sacked. This makes it easier for Dalton to make good decisions because he is not under constant pressure.
One stat that I like to look at when it comes to quarterbacks being good fantasy options is their TD% (passing TD’s divided by passing attempts). Dalton’s career high over a season is 5.6%, but this year he is on pace for an 8.3 TD%. This means that almost 10% of Dalton’s throws are going for touchdowns, and while that is going to be extremely difficult to sustain, it shows that Dalton is making good decisions to manage the offense. A concern many have about the Bengals is that they have the second ranked strength of schedule in the league. I took a look at the schedule, and the main games of concern are against the Bills, Seahawks, Cardinals, and Broncos. The rest of the schedule is more favorable, as they will be seeing teams like the Steelers, Browns, and 49ers. While Dalton has a few tough matchups, there are many good matchups which Dalton can certainly exploit. Dalton faced a Chargers team with a good secondary, and he put up 214 yards and 3 touchdowns. The Chargers do not have the most fearsome defensive line in football, but the fact that Dalton passed at will on their secondary is still a good sign.
Here’s a fun fact for you: Andy Dalton has more passing yards than Aaron Rodgers right now. By no means will he finish the season with more yards, but that is an indication that he is scoring close to the “elite” QB’s. Do you need any other reasons to give this guy a shot?
Right now Dalton is the 7th ranked passer in standard fantasy leagues, and he is the 23rd highest priced QB on DraftKings at $5,700. With Dalton in line to play the Ravens this week, he should be in at least one of your lineups. In case you missed it, Derek Carr just shredded the Ravens for 351 yards and 3 TD’s. Dalton is a better QB than Carr. I am playing Dalton this week because he is an amazing value and could certainly put up 30 points (over five times value) against Baltimore.
Dalton is owned in a meager 37% of ESPN fantasy leagues, so season long owners need to pick him up with all of the underperforming and injured quarterbacks throughout the league. With Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, and Tony Romo well outside of the top 10 right now, the door is wide open for Dalton to be a top ten quarterback this year. He should be deployed without hesitation this week in both season long and DFS leagues while you can still get him for an amazing value.